2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
ninel conde

Re: Re:

#561 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:47 am

wxman57 wrote:
ninel conde wrote:thanks. if im reading it right its well below normal as i would suspect based on the absence of any convection in the atlantic.


Tropical Atlantic & Caribbean currently have below-normal instability, due to sinking air in the region. However, the Gulf is more unstable than normal. Model projections are for instability to increase in the Caribbean/Atlantic in 7-10 days.


i will keep checking. i saw the 10 day euro and it has very high pressures over the tropical atlantic.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#562 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 8:50 am

ninel conde wrote:Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 19h

Attn @AndyRevkin Exceptionally dry air in mid/upper trop over tropics killing global ace so far ..less than 70% of normal!

is this exceptionally dry air something thats seasonal and not likely to change, or can it flip to moist in a week or 2?


Of course it'll change. Check out this animation on Levi Cowen's page. Assume the brown regions are the dry/sinking air and the green areas are rising air/tstms. Note that the brown over the Atlantic today changes to green in a week or so:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... lobal.html
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#563 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 21, 2013 9:01 am

ninel conde wrote:Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 19h

Attn @AndyRevkin Exceptionally dry air in mid/upper trop over tropics killing global ace so far ..less than 70% of normal!

is this exceptionally dry air something thats seasonal and not likely to change, or can it flip to moist in a week or 2?


Most definitely the tropics can change very quickly as fast as a week or two. Climatology suggests we will see a gradual ramp up in activity from now through Aug. across the Atlantic peaking around Sept. 10th.
0 likes   

ninel conde

#564 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 22, 2013 7:49 am

i know people here are saying it isnt all that dry in the tropics but joe bastardi is on it again today. he was saying ace was 70% of normal, now its 52%.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 53m

Train wreck of Dry air in the tropics! N hem ACE index about 52% of normal. Dry air since 07 tanking ACE, opposite of IPCC AGW claims
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re:

#565 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:11 am

ninel conde wrote:i know people here are saying it isnt all that dry in the tropics but joe bastardi is on it again today. he was saying ace was 70% of normal, now its 52%.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 53m

Train wreck of Dry air in the tropics! N hem ACE index about 52% of normal. Dry air since 07 tanking ACE, opposite of IPCC AGW claims


You'll also notice this latest tweet has some of his politics in it, so I think it's time to draw the line and cut out reposting the JB tweets unless they are strictly weather related.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#566 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:24 am

Anybody else noticed that this month's Eurosip lowered ASO & SON MSLP forecast for the Atlantic compared to last month's forecast?

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#567 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:32 am

Can't view those images in your post, NDG, but I took a look on the Euro website and there is quite a difference. The EUROSIP is a combination of the ECMWF and other models. Since the Euro is the only model forecasting higher pressures in the basin, the blending of the Euro with the other models yields a lower basin pressure. Here's an image I made comparing the two. Still a little higher than normal pressure on the EUROSIP, but not nearly as high as the ECMWF:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6666
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re:

#568 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:22 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Still thinking this should be a bad year for the United States overall. Ridging over the western Atlantic with troughing over the central United States is never a good pattern.

Yes.

tolakram wrote:You'll also notice this latest tweet has some of his politics in it, so I think it's time to draw the line and cut out reposting the JB tweets unless they are strictly weather related.

Or better yet, altogether.
0 likes   

ninel conde

#569 Postby ninel conde » Tue Jul 23, 2013 4:18 pm

wxrisk.com is agreeing with a guy on facebook that the pattern setting up is favorable for east coast and east gom.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#570 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:35 pm

I hope none hit any coast. I just like to track them because I'm bored. :P
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#571 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:38 pm

The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#572 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

Yeah, but I'm noticing quite a few more troughs are swinging through trying to really break down this strong ridging. Even though they're having a tough time kind of doing so.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re:

#573 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:59 pm

ninel conde wrote:wxrisk.com is agreeing with a guy on facebook that the pattern setting up is favorable for east coast and east gom.

Last week you were on the boat with JB about troughiness setting up along the EC. Are you not agreeing with that anymore?
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Re:

#574 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:01 am

You'll also notice this latest tweet has some of his politics in it, so I think it's time to draw the line and cut out reposting the JB tweets unless they are strictly weather related.


"Amen" to that, brother! Do I hear a Hallelujah from the congregation!? Lord, heal his tired bone dry weather soul..... LOL
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#575 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:04 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

Yeah, but I'm noticing quite a few more troughs are swinging through trying to really break down this strong ridging. Even though they're having a tough time kind of doing so.


That has been the pattern this summer so far, that not many troughs have not been able to weaken the Atlantic ridge they might temporarily push it south or east but it comes back to take its place right away.
I was comparing 1996 to this summer so far, very similar sypnotic set up but '96's Atlantic ridge was not as strong as the one we are seeing so far this year, which leads me to believe that this year's track could be a bit further west than '96's CV season tracks.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#576 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:09 am

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The 600dm subtropical high in the Atlantic puts in perspective the dangerous pattern that awaits come ASO.

Yeah, but I'm noticing quite a few more troughs are swinging through trying to really break down this strong ridging. Even though they're having a tough time kind of doing so.


That has been the pattern this summer so far, that not many troughs have not been able to weaken the Atlantic ridge they might temporarily push it south or east but it comes back to take its place right away.
I was comparing 1996 to this summer so far, very similar sypnotic set up but '96's Atlantic ridge was not as strong as the one we are seeing so far this year, which leads me to believe that this year's track could be a bit further west than '96's CV season tracks.



Yep. This is what really concerns me NDG as we enter ino August and September.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#577 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:41 am

Well, I don't know what people on FB are talking about, but the fact remains that the overall pattern thus far this summer has been for general troughiness in the eastern to central CONUS, and none of these troughs has really managed to break that big ridge in the Atlantic. While it is true that these troughs lift out and ridging replaces it, it is also true that the troughs have a distinct tendency to come right back. I've seen very little to change my mind from earlier this month. Gonna be a loooong season.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145323
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#578 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:51 am

We can discuss here about how the rest of the season will be. It all hinges on the MJO pulses that provide more favorable lifting for convection to get going. Let's see how things evolve in the peak months. The latest MJO forecast is for the favorable pulse to enter the Atlantic during the next two weeks.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#579 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:54 am

I have a very primitive question (not much research) on an idea that perhaps a more knowledgeable poster or pro met with information can answer or give input.

One of our great posters, Andrew92, in the past have mentioned that seasons after "modoki" or central Pacific El Nino's often leaves way to bad seasons. Now to get started the past several seasons have proven that dry air and lack of instability has plagued the Atlantic basin. And actually right now the global ACE is very much below normal. We've been in the cold PDO and La Ninas or cold neutrals for a long stretch now (knowingly diminishing rainfall and moisture in the tropical Pacific). The tropics as you know contribute a vast amount of moisture to the global energy budget and the Pacific is the big daddy of them all. Could this long stretch since El Nino could be drying out the global budget and letting dry air be more rampant? Instability is the mutual relationship between temperature and moisture.

2010 had a decent season which was after an El Nino, again linking back to Andrew92's idea. The Indian Ocean I know has influential effects seasonally on activity in the Atlantic but my question here is the longer term Pacific lack of El Nino's of late be contributing to the long term problems we have been seeing in the Atlantic?
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re:

#580 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 27, 2013 12:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:I have a very primitive question (not much research) on an idea that perhaps a more knowledgeable poster or pro met with information can answer or give input.

One of our great posters, Andrew92, in the past have mentioned that seasons after "modoki" or central Pacific El Nino's often leaves way to bad seasons. Now to get started the past several seasons have proven that dry air and lack of instability has plagued the Atlantic basin. And actually right now the global ACE is very much below normal. We've been in the cold PDO and La Ninas or cold neutrals for a long stretch now (knowingly diminishing rainfall and moisture in the tropical Pacific). The tropics as you know contribute a vast amount of moisture to the global energy budget and the Pacific is the big daddy of them all. Could this long stretch since El Nino could be drying out the global budget and letting dry air be more rampant? Instability is the mutual relationship between temperature and moisture.

2010 had a decent season which was after an El Nino, again linking back to Andrew92's idea. The Indian Ocean I know has influential effects seasonally on activity in the Atlantic but my question here is the longer term Pacific lack of El Nino's of late be contributing to the long term problems we have been seeing in the Atlantic?


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am glad you are bringing this up because I brought this up last year but nobody seemed to have caught on this, I am starting to firmly believe that the lack of an El Nino and or a strong El Nino the last few years could be the reason why the tropics are so bone dry.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kevin, Majestic-12 [Bot] and 55 guests