Hmmm...Eye Filling...Or is it?

[MWatkins]

Just looking at the latest loops for the last 2 hours...It kinda looks like the open spot we've been following is just a portion of the eye and either the true center has jumped into the deep convection to the west a little or that's been the center all along and we've been following the warm spot...just using the last visible imagery as a guide and interpolating the IR images from there.

I may be completely wrong about this...but it's one of those things that I'm throwing out there as I think it...cause if it happens and I wait until it happens to post on it...I would be posting about the obvious.

I suppose we'll find out in the next couple of hours.

MW

[ChaserUK]

I reckon it could just be eyewall dynamics at work - a common feature of strong hurricanes, the eye is probably shifting position.

[cycloneye]

MW that may be a reformation of the eye more to the west but more frames for sure are needed.

[MWatkins]

I reckon it could just be eyewall dynamics at work - a common feature of strong hurricanes, the eye is probably shifting position.

I suppose I didn't extend that conclusion out there as far as I should of...that's precisely my point...and the position of 20.3 47.8 may end as too far north/east depending on how the next few images look.

Or I could have just another random thought go wrong...again.

MW

[ChaserUK]

not a randomn thought MW - that's what these dicussion forums are for !!!

[Scott_inVA]

I reckon it could just be eyewall dynamics at work - a common feature of strong hurricanes, the eye is probably shifting position.

I suppose I didn't extend that conclusion out there as far as I should of...that's precisely my point...and the position of 20.3 47.8 may end as too far north/east depending on how the next few images look.

Or I could have just another random thought go wrong...again.

MW

I haven't looked since ~1PM today, but it's about time for eyewall recycle.

Scott

[PTrackerLA]

Just throwing this out, does a storm have to have a perfect eye feature to be a strong cat 3/4 or even 5? The reason I'm saying this is because I never remember Opal looking like a "classic" storm. I can't even remember her having an eye with 150mph winds. I think this current ragged eye is just a short-term fluctuation.

[ChaserUK]

PTrackerLA, I agree - as far as I can see there is nothing that would disturb any intensity in Isabel and any ragged appeared a sign of eye wall repositioning IMO - the way I see it if the eye wall moves then the movement of the exhaust air buffering up against the higher cloud layers causing the ragged appearance. I am however a novice at this type of development. My knowledge is (limited that it is of course). I have however learnt a lot since joiniing your forum - thanks guys!!