ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#581 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:24 am

Dorian making a run at Category 2... :double:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_52.png
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#582 Postby jhpigott » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:24 am



What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance :D ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?
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Re: Re:

#583 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:25 am

hurricanekid416 wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
hurricanekid416 wrote:If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

Why do you think that?



The models show a northerly track and then a bend west with a strong ridge and that's what ike did
That's quite similar to what Hurricane Luis did before slamming into the Leeward Islands in 1995.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#584 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:28 am

jhpigott wrote:


What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance :D ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?


This version of the model is translated through a higher resolution gridding so that may end up being a more accurate depiction of Dorian than the regular GFS resolution depiction

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#585 Postby jhpigott » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:28 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
jhpigott wrote:


What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance :D ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?


This version of the model is translated through a higher resolution gridding so that may end up being a more accurate depiction of Dorian than the regular GFS resolution depiction

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gotcha, thanks.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#586 Postby weatherwindow » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:29 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Is this heading towards any bouys, because if so we could get a more accurate depiction of strength because of its small size

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some candidates
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
4101..approx 14.3 46.2...Dorian will pass well to the north however will provide ground data as to storm dimensions

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0
41NT0...approx 14.5 51.1...again well to the north

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100
41100...approx 15.5 57.5....unfortunately no recent obs, malfunction?....a bit closer but still well outside the prospective outer isobar
It would appear that Dorian, altho well behaved, will pass well outside the perview of the array of buoys east of the Leewards..However, they may provide some suggestions as to storm dimensions and broad structure...Grtz from KW, Rich
Last edited by weatherwindow on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#587 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:29 am

[quote="ROCK"]06Z NAVGEM.....uh FL you need to pay attention to Dorian. :D

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical[/quot


Arggggg...avoids all land and maybe even shoots through the straits between Fla and Cuba..Looks as though Many folks need to keep an eye out. Hopefully shear keeps him in check.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#588 Postby thetruesms » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:30 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
jhpigott wrote:


What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance :D ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?


This version of the model is translated through a higher resolution gridding so that may end up being a more accurate depiction of Dorian than the regular GFS resolution depiction

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This grid spacing is ~27 kilometers, so better than the ~40km spacing, but if it's a small core, still may not capture it fully.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#589 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:31 am

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#590 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:32 am

Dvorak tends to do poorly with small storms as well. I would guess it might be closer to 55-60 kt.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#591 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:32 am

Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#592 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:34 am

12Z GFS loop: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

So we go from weak TS and now to what looks like the first legitimate CV hurricane of the year. Intensity forecasting is horrible, of course, so right now this is all entertainment only.
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#593 Postby artist » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:35 am

latest Dvorak image -
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#594 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:35 am

It's already nearing 15N so am not convinced of that early westward forecast track, especially considering the large ULL is forecast to remain north of Puerto Rico for the reminder of the forecast period...

Also, since it's strengthening very very far to the east it's also more likely to be a recurving (fish) system (almost all strengthening systems at 15N, 30W recurved)...

P.S. Whatever you do, do not listen to the hype nonsense on TWC concerning hurricane season - mostly done for ratings and advertising revenue (I wish AccuWeather had their own all-weather cable channel)...
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#595 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:36 am

Riptide wrote:Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png



Yeah, recurve gonna depend on that ridge for sure and how strong it is, or whether there is a weakness somewhere in order to turn him.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#596 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:37 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:
Riptide wrote:Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png



Yeah, recurve gonna depend on that ridge for sure and how strong it is, or whether there is a weakness somewhere in order to turn him.

Could hit the Carolinas or the NE Coast even if it recurves in this pattern as forecasted by the GFS.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#597 Postby torrea40 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:38 am

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h
Loop of Dorian rolling west.. tiny storm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#598 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:39 am

16:15Z

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#599 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:39 am

Classic spiral banding, reminds me of Hurricane Hugo but obviously not the same intensity.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#600 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:40 am

Riptide wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
Riptide wrote:Close call on the GFS in regards to the recurve...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_61.png



Yeah, recurve gonna depend on that ridge for sure and how strong it is, or whether there is a weakness somewhere in order to turn him.

Could hit the Carolinas or the NE Coast even if it recurves in this pattern as forecasted by the GFS.[/quote

I totally agree, interesting 10 days or so ahead. At this point, everybody needs to watch as usual.
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