ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

I find it weird that the model plots have it going north of the islands, and the NHC seems to strongly agree with that idea too.

[BigB0882]

Looks like the NAVGEM starts bending this WSW at the end of its run and kills it over Hispaniola. I am not worried about whether a model shows it dying at this point, these models keep showing this getting further and further west, and sometimes even SW.

[Alyono]

Not looking good at all on satellite imagery. The previous convective burst seems like a typical shear burst that fires and dies after a couple of hours.

The SHIPS shear is so obviously wrong in its initial diagnosis. No way does a TC become decoupled under less than 10 kts of shear. GFS likely does not have the strong low level easterlies resolved well

[TheStormExpert]

Watching all of the comparisons track wise to Ike I now understand why 2008 is one of the analog years for this season.

[SapphireSea]

Looks like the NAVGEM starts bending this WSW at the end of its run and kills it over Hispaniola. I am not worried about whether a model shows it dying at this point, these models keep showing this getting further and further west, and sometimes even SW.

Models don't know what is out proper at 120 hours. There really isn't any huge energy making progress across the continent that can make a real weakness in the current. This is all being refactored in, over and over, I can expect a shift or two happening from here on in. In any case, the SW dives may be an anomaly right now, it all depends on the depth of the system or lack thereof to see what happens.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

18Z NAVGEM...buries it in DR....at 120...have to wait for the rest...it always hangs up at 120

[TheStormExpert]

Latest AVN Sattelite Loop:

[SapphireSea]

Not looking good at all on satellite imagery. The previous convective burst seems like a typical shear burst that fires and dies after a couple of hours.

The SHIPS shear is so obviously wrong in its initial diagnosis. No way does a TC become decoupled under less than 10 kts of shear. GFS likely does not have the strong low level easterlies resolved well

Dorian is starting to remind me of Chantal in ways. It cant be seen, but I think your right, I think I saw some outflow from some of the towers that went away, but could be an optical illusion. Looks like it's being sheared off by low level easterlies.

[ROCK]

I find it weird that the model plots have it going north of the islands, and the NHC seems to strongly agree with that idea too.

not wierd... as model runs come in the NHC will adjust accordingly...this is a process...

[Hurricaneman]

Doesnt look like shear to me at the moment, but it looks like dry air entrainment thats doing a number on this

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[summersquall]

When does the NHC consider the GFS track?? The 18z GFS looks like it bumps south of NHC error cone?

NHC addressed the shift in the 12Z run:

SEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS RUN OFF THE NEW WCOSS SUPERCOMPUTER... SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD SHIFT ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DID NOT SHIFT SOUTHWARD...BUT RATHER
CONVERGED EVEN MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.

Perhaps the more southerly run will be factored into the next advisory as well.

[TheStormExpert]

I find it weird that the model plots have it going north of the islands, and the NHC seems to strongly agree with that idea too.

not wierd... as model runs come in the NHC will adjust accordingly...this is a process...

I meant compared to what the GFS has been forecasting for a few runs now.

[mvtrucking]

Hate to see this storm get anywhere near the Gulf, Fl or the East Coast, hope it just heads out to sea.

[tropicwatch]

Hate to see this storm get anywhere near the Gulf, Fl or the East Coast, hope it just heads out to sea.

That would be bad, the whole state could use a break from rain.

[Blown Away]

Hate to see this storm get anywhere near the Gulf, Fl or the East Coast, hope it just heads out to sea.

That would be bad, the whole state could use a break from rain.[/]

Local officials are panicking to empty Lake Okeechobee, a strong system moving over the lake now could spell trouble for the dike...

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM kills it over DR at 120 and it never recovers.

18Z GFS also kills it over DR at 120..

[SFLcane]

Just cant see Dorian doing much from the looks of this water vapor image

[Bartholemew Roberts]

What a huge storm.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I have a feeling Dorian will just go west over all the big islands and die out. Not too impressed with this storm right now.

[cycloneye]

If Dorian doesn't build convection during DMAX,then it will be toast.