ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TheStormExpert

#1281 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:28 pm

I find it weird that the model plots have it going north of the islands, and the NHC seems to strongly agree with that idea too.
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#1282 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:29 pm

Looks like the NAVGEM starts bending this WSW at the end of its run and kills it over Hispaniola. I am not worried about whether a model shows it dying at this point, these models keep showing this getting further and further west, and sometimes even SW.
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#1283 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:31 pm

Not looking good at all on satellite imagery. The previous convective burst seems like a typical shear burst that fires and dies after a couple of hours.

The SHIPS shear is so obviously wrong in its initial diagnosis. No way does a TC become decoupled under less than 10 kts of shear. GFS likely does not have the strong low level easterlies resolved well
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#1284 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:33 pm

Watching all of the comparisons track wise to Ike I now understand why 2008 is one of the analog years for this season. :lol:
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Re:

#1285 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:35 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Looks like the NAVGEM starts bending this WSW at the end of its run and kills it over Hispaniola. I am not worried about whether a model shows it dying at this point, these models keep showing this getting further and further west, and sometimes even SW.


Models don't know what is out proper at 120 hours. There really isn't any huge energy making progress across the continent that can make a real weakness in the current. This is all being refactored in, over and over, I can expect a shift or two happening from here on in. In any case, the SW dives may be an anomaly right now, it all depends on the depth of the system or lack thereof to see what happens.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1286 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:39 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

18Z NAVGEM...buries it in DR....at 120...have to wait for the rest...it always hangs up at 120
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#1287 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:40 pm

Latest AVN Sattelite Loop:

Image
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Re:

#1288 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:40 pm

Alyono wrote:Not looking good at all on satellite imagery. The previous convective burst seems like a typical shear burst that fires and dies after a couple of hours.

The SHIPS shear is so obviously wrong in its initial diagnosis. No way does a TC become decoupled under less than 10 kts of shear. GFS likely does not have the strong low level easterlies resolved well


Dorian is starting to remind me of Chantal in ways. It cant be seen, but I think your right, I think I saw some outflow from some of the towers that went away, but could be an optical illusion. Looks like it's being sheared off by low level easterlies.
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Re:

#1289 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:41 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I find it weird that the model plots have it going north of the islands, and the NHC seems to strongly agree with that idea too.



not wierd... as model runs come in the NHC will adjust accordingly...this is a process...:)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1290 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:43 pm

Doesnt look like shear to me at the moment, but it looks like dry air entrainment thats doing a number on this

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1291 Postby summersquall » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:44 pm

Blown Away wrote:When does the NHC consider the GFS track?? The 18z GFS looks like it bumps south of NHC error cone?


NHC addressed the shift in the 12Z run:

SEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS RUN OFF THE NEW WCOSS SUPERCOMPUTER... SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD SHIFT ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DID NOT SHIFT SOUTHWARD...BUT RATHER
CONVERGED EVEN MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.

Perhaps the more southerly run will be factored into the next advisory as well.
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Re: Re:

#1292 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:44 pm

ROCK wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I find it weird that the model plots have it going north of the islands, and the NHC seems to strongly agree with that idea too.



not wierd... as model runs come in the NHC will adjust accordingly...this is a process...:)

I meant compared to what the GFS has been forecasting for a few runs now.
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#1293 Postby mvtrucking » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:51 pm

Hate to see this storm get anywhere near the Gulf, Fl or the East Coast, hope it just heads out to sea.
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Re:

#1294 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:59 pm

mvtrucking wrote:Hate to see this storm get anywhere near the Gulf, Fl or the East Coast, hope it just heads out to sea.

That would be bad, the whole state could use a break from rain.
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Re: Re:

#1295 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:04 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
mvtrucking wrote:Hate to see this storm get anywhere near the Gulf, Fl or the East Coast, hope it just heads out to sea.

That would be bad, the whole state could use a break from rain.[/]

Local officials are panicking to empty Lake Okeechobee, a strong system moving over the lake now could spell trouble for the dike...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1296 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:04 pm

18Z NAVGEM kills it over DR at 120 and it never recovers.

18Z GFS also kills it over DR at 120..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1297 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:21 pm

Just cant see Dorian doing much from the looks of this water vapor image

Image
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#1298 Postby Bartholemew Roberts » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:22 pm

What a huge storm. :cold:
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TheStormExpert

#1299 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:32 pm

At this point I have a feeling Dorian will just go west over all the big islands and die out. Not too impressed with this storm right now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1300 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:37 pm

If Dorian doesn't build convection during DMAX,then it will be toast.
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