ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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latest images .. the llc is actually vey well defined but no convection.. however the low level cloud deck has begun to thicken... typically an indication convection is about to develop.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Moving west 280 degrees now.
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
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WHXX01 KWBC 261840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130726 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130726 1800 130727 0600 130727 1800 130728 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 44.8W 18.4N 49.0W 19.0N 53.0W 19.5N 56.9W
BAMD 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 47.5W 18.4N 50.1W 18.6N 52.4W
BAMM 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 47.9W 18.4N 51.0W 18.7N 53.9W
LBAR 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 48.3W 18.5N 52.0W 19.1N 55.5W
SHIP 40KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 40KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130728 1800 130729 1800 130730 1800 130731 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 60.6W 21.4N 67.6W 22.4N 74.6W 23.4N 80.6W
BAMD 18.7N 54.5W 18.3N 58.3W 17.5N 62.0W 17.4N 65.5W
BAMM 19.0N 56.7W 19.6N 61.8W 19.9N 66.7W 20.3N 71.3W
LBAR 19.4N 58.9W 19.7N 64.5W 19.5N 68.3W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 42KTS 44KTS 47KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 40.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 37.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130726 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130726 1800 130727 0600 130727 1800 130728 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 44.8W 18.4N 49.0W 19.0N 53.0W 19.5N 56.9W
BAMD 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 47.5W 18.4N 50.1W 18.6N 52.4W
BAMM 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 47.9W 18.4N 51.0W 18.7N 53.9W
LBAR 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 48.3W 18.5N 52.0W 19.1N 55.5W
SHIP 40KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 40KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130728 1800 130729 1800 130730 1800 130731 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 60.6W 21.4N 67.6W 22.4N 74.6W 23.4N 80.6W
BAMD 18.7N 54.5W 18.3N 58.3W 17.5N 62.0W 17.4N 65.5W
BAMM 19.0N 56.7W 19.6N 61.8W 19.9N 66.7W 20.3N 71.3W
LBAR 19.4N 58.9W 19.7N 64.5W 19.5N 68.3W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 42KTS 44KTS 47KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 40.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 37.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
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- Weatherboy1
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Naked CoC but it is there. Better than I thought it would be.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
LaBreeze wrote:ROCK wrote:the 12Z CMC seems to think the left overs of Dorian will make the Central GOM.....never really closes it off though...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
Could the "left overs" of Dorian regenerate in the Central GOM? Would there be enough left over and would conditions allow for this?
no models show this....180hr out is a long time though...
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

18z...Pointing to GOM...Not sure what will be left...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
why is there a 18Z CMC? I thought they ran regional CMC at 18Z at one time but I dont recall.....
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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Anyone have a link to the EURO? Curious as to where it shows Dorian going
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Moving west 280 degrees now.
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
Latest from SSD. Moving west too.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1745 UTC 17.6N 44.7W T1.0/2.0 DORIAN
26/1145 UTC 17.6N 42.6W T1.5/2.0 DORIAN
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

18z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurricaneTracker2031 wrote::uarrow: Interesting It continues to move West.
Now that the LLC is exposed and easy to track, still looks WNW to me (280)??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
ROCK wrote:why is there a 18Z CMC? I thought they ran regional CMC at 18Z at one time but I dont recall.....
It only runs twice a day at 0z and 12z. It just updates to the time stamp on the model graphic legend.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:Anyone have a link to the EURO? Curious as to where it shows Dorian going
No link, but the euro sends a weak wave near south Florida at hour 144, then shunts it off NE. Does not even look like a TD, just an area of vorticity.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... 5&map=none
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