ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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#1661 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:47 pm

latest images .. the llc is actually vey well defined but no convection.. however the low level cloud deck has begun to thicken... typically an indication convection is about to develop.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1662 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:48 pm

Moving west 280 degrees now.

LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
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#1663 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:48 pm

there are two SHIPS runs available. One brings it to 53 kt and the other to 62 kts. Not sure why there are two
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#1664 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:49 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 261840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130726 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130726 1800 130727 0600 130727 1800 130728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 44.8W 18.4N 49.0W 19.0N 53.0W 19.5N 56.9W
BAMD 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 47.5W 18.4N 50.1W 18.6N 52.4W
BAMM 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 47.9W 18.4N 51.0W 18.7N 53.9W
LBAR 17.6N 44.8W 18.0N 48.3W 18.5N 52.0W 19.1N 55.5W
SHIP 40KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 40KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130728 1800 130729 1800 130730 1800 130731 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 60.6W 21.4N 67.6W 22.4N 74.6W 23.4N 80.6W
BAMD 18.7N 54.5W 18.3N 58.3W 17.5N 62.0W 17.4N 65.5W
BAMM 19.0N 56.7W 19.6N 61.8W 19.9N 66.7W 20.3N 71.3W
LBAR 19.4N 58.9W 19.7N 64.5W 19.5N 68.3W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 42KTS 44KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 40.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 37.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
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#1665 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:50 pm

Also, it seems to my eye that outflow is improving to the north, no? Missing ingredient mostly convection due to dry air ...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1666 Postby Steve H. » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:53 pm

Naked CoC but it is there. Better than I thought it would be.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1667 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:53 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
ROCK wrote:the 12Z CMC seems to think the left overs of Dorian will make the Central GOM.....never really closes it off though...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Could the "left overs" of Dorian regenerate in the Central GOM? Would there be enough left over and would conditions allow for this?


no models show this....180hr out is a long time though...
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#1668 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:54 pm

Alyono wrote:there are two SHIPS runs available. One brings it to 53 kt and the other to 62 kts. Not sure why there are two



That is weird that they have two different runs on it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1669 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:56 pm

Image
18z...Pointing to GOM...Not sure what will be left...
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#1670 Postby AEWspotter » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:59 pm

LLC is completely exposed in the latest images, but I do see a thickening of the clouds as Aric Dunn noted.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1671 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:00 pm

why is there a 18Z CMC? I thought they ran regional CMC at 18Z at one time but I dont recall.....
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1672 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:00 pm

Anyone have a link to the EURO? Curious as to where it shows Dorian going
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1673 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Moving west 280 degrees now.

LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT


Latest from SSD. Moving west too.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1745 UTC 17.6N 44.7W T1.0/2.0 DORIAN
26/1145 UTC 17.6N 42.6W T1.5/2.0 DORIAN
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1674 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:24 pm

Image
18z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1675 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:25 pm

:uarrow: Interesting It continues to move West.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1676 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:29 pm

HurricaneTracker2031 wrote::uarrow: Interesting It continues to move West.


Now that the LLC is exposed and easy to track, still looks WNW to me (280)?? :double:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1677 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:30 pm

ROCK wrote:why is there a 18Z CMC? I thought they ran regional CMC at 18Z at one time but I dont recall.....


It only runs twice a day at 0z and 12z. It just updates to the time stamp on the model graphic legend.
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#1678 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:36 pm

I kind of do hope this can get its act together. Getting real tired of all the weak pathetic storms we've been having the past few seasons! :x Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1679 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:41 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Anyone have a link to the EURO? Curious as to where it shows Dorian going


No link, but the euro sends a weak wave near south Florida at hour 144, then shunts it off NE. Does not even look like a TD, just an area of vorticity.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1680 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:43 pm

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