ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

doesnt look half bad for a wave.....nice NAM loop... that is why we never use the NAM for the tropics....

[ozonepete]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Best track data posted early. (4:58Z, 12:58am EDT) I've never seen that before:

AL, 04, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 185N, 555W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2013072806, , BEST, 0, 185N, 577W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[ozonepete]

Best track data posted early. (4:58Z, 12:58am EDT) I've never seen that before:

AL, 04, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 185N, 555W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2013072806, , BEST, 0, 185N, 577W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Yeah. Don't know what that means. ??

[ROCK]

Looks like the date and 0Z and 06Z best track....maybe thru in the 06Z for fun?

[fci]

Thank you to Dorian for not making me go into hiding and having to take the name Carlos Danger

[Hurricane Alexis]

They're still going with the recon idea for tomorrow.

[fci]

They're still going with the plain idea for tomorrow.

I can't imagine that they won't cancel the plane tomorrow.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Tonight's convection seems bigger than last night's. It'll probably get sheared away later on in the day.

[JGrin87]

What is the environment for Dorian looking like tomorrow? Convection is really exploding right now.

[Hurricane Alexis]

What is the environment for Dorian looking like tomorrow? Convection is really exploding right now.

Strong Shear and dry air from the south.



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[funster]

Expanding Dorian wants to be unbonesd

[Hurricane Alexis]

Still producing TS winds according to the latest ASCAT.



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[ozonepete]

Though I still expect the shear to shred it tomorrow, convection is sure blowing up right now and this is way more than a "remnant low."
Boy that convection and very heavy rain is going to come really close to the northern islands and PR. Hope you guys down there in the islands keep watching until it passes just to be safe...

[bahamaswx]

STILL expanding. Might have more convection than he ever had.

[ozonepete]

STILL expanding. Might have more convection than he ever had.

Keep watching my friend. We'll watch with you of course. Even as an open wave this could cause very heavy rain over you.

[JGrin87]

Convection still increasing. On the north side of the system, notice the cloud layers being streamed off to the north. Is this from shear?



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[ozonepete]

Convection still increasing. On the north side of the system, notice the cloud layers being streamed off to the north. Is this from shear?



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Not at all. The outflowing air at the tops of the very tall thunderstorms is blowing outward and away from them. When you see them feather at the tops like that it is often a sign that an upper level outflow mechanism is developing, i.e. an anti-cyclone is building over it. that's a sure sign of strengthening. I would still caution that there is killing shear just a little west of this system due to an upper level trough (TUTT) just to its west but the TUTT seems to be weakening slightly and retrograding westward. If that trend continues Dorian could revive considerably. I'm not saying that will happen, but I would definitely keep an eye on this. Almost no one expected this earlier today.

[JGrin87]

Thanks for the reply. Still continuing to look better with each passing frame. On the atlantic wide view, it almost looks like a tropical cyclone again. This is pretty remarkable considering where it was just 6 hours ago.

[abajan]

Though I still expect the shear to shred it tomorrow, convection is sure blowing up right now and this is way more than a "remnant low."
Boy that convection and very heavy rain is going to come really close to the northern islands and PR. Hope you guys down there in the islands keep watching until it passes just to be safe...

Not just heavy rain. I can still vividly remember Barbados getting slammed with winds well in excess of 50 mph from a tropical wave back in the 1980's. (Although, I'm not forecasting that Dorian's remnants will do the same.)

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