
ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
doesnt look half bad for a wave.....nice NAM loop...
that is why we never use the NAM for the tropics....

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Best track data posted early. (4:58Z, 12:58am EDT) I've never seen that before:
AL, 04, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 185N, 555W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2013072806, , BEST, 0, 185N, 577W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 185N, 555W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2013072806, , BEST, 0, 185N, 577W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Best track data posted early. (4:58Z, 12:58am EDT) I've never seen that before:
AL, 04, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 185N, 555W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2013072806, , BEST, 0, 185N, 577W, 30, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Yeah. Don't know what that means. ??
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Looks like the date and 0Z and 06Z best track....maybe thru in the 06Z for fun?
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They're still going with the recon idea for tomorrow.
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Tonight's convection seems bigger than last night's. It'll probably get sheared away later on in the day.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
What is the environment for Dorian looking like tomorrow? Convection is really exploding right now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
JGrin87 wrote:What is the environment for Dorian looking like tomorrow? Convection is really exploding right now.
Strong Shear and dry air from the south.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Though I still expect the shear to shred it tomorrow, convection is sure blowing up right now and this is way more than a "remnant low."
Boy that convection and very heavy rain is going to come really close to the northern islands and PR. Hope you guys down there in the islands keep watching until it passes just to be safe...

Boy that convection and very heavy rain is going to come really close to the northern islands and PR. Hope you guys down there in the islands keep watching until it passes just to be safe...

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bahamaswx wrote:STILL expanding. Might have more convection than he ever had.
Keep watching my friend. We'll watch with you of course. Even as an open wave this could cause very heavy rain over you.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Convection still increasing. On the north side of the system, notice the cloud layers being streamed off to the north. Is this from shear?

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
JGrin87 wrote:Convection still increasing. On the north side of the system, notice the cloud layers being streamed off to the north. Is this from shear?
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Not at all. The outflowing air at the tops of the very tall thunderstorms is blowing outward and away from them. When you see them feather at the tops like that it is often a sign that an upper level outflow mechanism is developing, i.e. an anti-cyclone is building over it. that's a sure sign of strengthening. I would still caution that there is killing shear just a little west of this system due to an upper level trough (TUTT) just to its west but the TUTT seems to be weakening slightly and retrograding westward. If that trend continues Dorian could revive considerably. I'm not saying that will happen, but I would definitely keep an eye on this. Almost no one expected this earlier today.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Thanks for the reply. Still continuing to look better with each passing frame. On the atlantic wide view, it almost looks like a tropical cyclone again. This is pretty remarkable considering where it was just 6 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Remnants - Discussion
Not just heavy rain. I can still vividly remember Barbados getting slammed with winds well in excess of 50 mph from a tropical wave back in the 1980's. (Although, I'm not forecasting that Dorian's remnants will do the same.)ozonepete wrote:Though I still expect the shear to shred it tomorrow, convection is sure blowing up right now and this is way more than a "remnant low."
Boy that convection and very heavy rain is going to come really close to the northern islands and PR. Hope you guys down there in the islands keep watching until it passes just to be safe...
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