ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
perk wrote:ROCK wrote:18Z ensembles
http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/3681/9d8m.pngeve
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Rock any thoughts on where Dorian might end up.
Altho not Rock

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
tolakram wrote:No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?
very seldom are invests flown at night.
The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
Alyono wrote:tolakram wrote:No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?
very seldom are invests flown at night.
The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown
put have flight for 10:30pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
Dave, has the 1030pm mission gone wheels up?..Grtz from KW, Rich
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
Alyono wrote:tolakram wrote:No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?
very seldom are invests flown at night.
The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown
Not saying this is the reason, but just now on TWC had a news clip that due to the budget and the govt. $$$$ issue this could result in less recon flights.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
Look at the water vapor loop. The ULL continues to weaken. And the upper level anti-cyclone over Dorian is really hanging in.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
weatherwindow wrote:Dave, has the 1030pm mission gone wheels up?..Grtz from KW, Rich
As far as I can find out, checked all feeds, wheels are still down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:Look at the water vapor loop. The ULL continues to weaken. And the upper level anti-cyclone over Dorian is really hanging in.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
its a small one but its there.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Tyler Penland wrote:
It didn't develop it a week ago either, and we see how that panned out.
Neither did the Euro, or the Ukie (though it did kind of pick up on it eventually).
GFS developed it a week ago, check your sources.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
You can use this page to access recent model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
I can understand only one model developing something, but to have every major model, including both reliable models, showing nothing but a dissipating system? I have no idea what will happen, but this will be something if it redevelops IMO.
He said "the canadian doesn't develop it" which is the "it" I was referring to. Believe me, I know the GFS was on this a while ago lol.
I use http://www.tropicaltidbits.com for most of my tropical modeling. I've been optimistically championing this storm across the Atlantic since before it was even an invest.

Last edited by Tyler Penland on Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
Here is the San Juan radar that shows well NE of PR some movement. Saved loop.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion
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Re:
floridasun78 wrote:when morning flight going up?
Next scheduled mission is 2 pm Monday...
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 29/1730Z,2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A DORIAN
C. 29/1600Z
D. 21.5N 68.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Re: Re:
Dave wrote:floridasun78 wrote:when morning flight going up?
Next scheduled mission is 2 pm Monday...
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 29/1730Z,2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A DORIAN
C. 29/1600Z
D. 21.5N 68.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
ok ty
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Re:
Cainer wrote:
One thing this system is missing is low level convergence. It'll be difficult to maintain consistent convection without it, even with the divergent anticyclonic flow above.
Very true. The whole point is that if it maintains upper divergence long enough along with a strong MLC and then moves into a very moist low and mid-level environment (which it is starting to do) then convection should really start blowing up and lower level convergence will get forced.
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