ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

i dont see any plane on google map was it cancel?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Better on this pass.

[weatherwindow]

18Z ensembles

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/3681/9d8m.pngeve

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Rock any thoughts on where Dorian might end up.

Altho not Rock ...chiming in: this suite of models does not reflect the presence of a tropical cyclone, hence the due west track. Development and some strengthening will likely shift the consensus toward a north of west solution, IMO somewhere between 275-295..Grtz from KW, Rich

Not to be considered a forecast, personal opinion only. For official forecasts please consult the NWS or the NHC

[Alyono]

No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?

very seldom are invests flown at night.

The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown

[floridasun78]

No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?

very seldom are invests flown at night.

The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown

put have flight for 10:30pm

[floridasun78]

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
C. 29/0230Z
D. 20.4N 65.0W
E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[weatherwindow]

Dave, has the 1030pm mission gone wheels up?..Grtz from KW, Rich

[Miami Storm Tracker]

No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?

very seldom are invests flown at night.

The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown

Not saying this is the reason, but just now on TWC had a news clip that due to the budget and the govt. $$$$ issue this could result in less recon flights.

[ozonepete]

Look at the water vapor loop. The ULL continues to weaken. And the upper level anti-cyclone over Dorian is really hanging in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Dave]

Dave, has the 1030pm mission gone wheels up?..Grtz from KW, Rich

As far as I can find out, checked all feeds, wheels are still down.

[ROCK]

Look at the water vapor loop. The ULL continues to weaken. And the upper level anti-cyclone over Dorian is really hanging in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

its a small one but its there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Tyler Penland]

It didn't develop it a week ago either, and we see how that panned out.
Neither did the Euro, or the Ukie (though it did kind of pick up on it eventually).

GFS developed it a week ago, check your sources. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

You can use this page to access recent model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I can understand only one model developing something, but to have every major model, including both reliable models, showing nothing but a dissipating system? I have no idea what will happen, but this will be something if it redevelops IMO.

He said "the canadian doesn't develop it" which is the "it" I was referring to. Believe me, I know the GFS was on this a while ago lol.
I use http://www.tropicaltidbits.com for most of my tropical modeling. I've been optimistically championing this storm across the Atlantic since before it was even an invest.

[Cainer]

One thing this system is missing is low level convergence. It'll be difficult to maintain consistent convection without it, even with the divergent anticyclonic flow above.

[cycloneye]

Here is the San Juan radar that shows well NE of PR some movement. Saved loop.

[floridasun78]

when morning flight going up?

[tolakram]

30 frame WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Speed up for effect.

[Dave]

when morning flight going up?

Next scheduled mission is 2 pm Monday...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 29/1730Z,2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A DORIAN
C. 29/1600Z
D. 21.5N 68.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[floridasun78]

when morning flight going up?

Next scheduled mission is 2 pm Monday...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 29/1730Z,2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A DORIAN
C. 29/1600Z
D. 21.5N 68.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

ok ty

[bahamaswx]

Surprised we're not seeing deeper convection yet.

[ozonepete]

One thing this system is missing is low level convergence. It'll be difficult to maintain consistent convection without it, even with the divergent anticyclonic flow above.

Very true. The whole point is that if it maintains upper divergence long enough along with a strong MLC and then moves into a very moist low and mid-level environment (which it is starting to do) then convection should really start blowing up and lower level convergence will get forced.