ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weatherwindow]

It is rather remarkable that the globals disavow any knowledge of this system and yet SHIPS etc plug away at near hurricane strength down the road...the definition of model schizophrenia ....Grtz from KW, Rich

[ROCK]

these intensity models are all over the place...switching from run to run...worthless until you have a real storm, IMO....

just a summary of the globals

06Z NAVGEM- shows wave
06Z GFS- shows a wave
0Z CMC- shows wave
0Z EURO- shows a wave

it must be a wave right now...

[stormgeek]

Quite a change in the model intensity!

[Bocadude85]

I will say that this tropical wave looks much better then TS Flossie does.

Flossie http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06E/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

91L http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[Caribwxgirl]

I will say that this tropical wave looks much better then TS Flossie does.

Flossie http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06E/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

91L http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

Indeed the convection appears stronger with the wave than the Tropical Storm.

[Alyono]

I see some inflow and outflow appears to be improving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif


But convection is also waning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

I wonder if the convection is being enhanced by the ULL?

the outflow is EAST of any surface feature. A sign of very strong shear

[NDG]

any center is still located WELL west of the convection... close to 66.5W based upon visible imagery. This indicates that like yesterday, strong shear continues to plague the system

Yeah, I agree with you, clearly the surface trough is closer to the 67th longitude.

[ROCK]

yep...try 30-40kts....getting hammered as expected.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

15 frame visible, one bad frame: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Looks like another one of those surface features is exposed.

[Hurricaneman]

The intensity models for the most part can be thrown out due to shear being 20kts higher than modeled by them

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[Meso]

The intensity models are making me very

While it's just one run so far, if Dorian has taught us anything, it's to listen to the models. As they have forecast the storm very well thus far. If the trend continues in future runs, while the storm may be having trouble now, it hints at definitely needing an eye kept on it.

Just ran the HWRF from 06Z and shows a strengthening Cat 1 hurricane in the GOM too... Suddenly things have become a lot more interesting with the 06z models.

[Hurricaneman]

The intensity models are making me very

While it's just one run so far, if Dorian has taught us anything, it's to listen to the models. As they have forecast the storm very well thus far. If the trend continues in future runs, while the storm may be having trouble now, it hints at definitely needing an eye kept on it.

Just ran the HWRF from 06Z and shows a strengthening Cat 1 hurricane in the GOM too... Suddenly things have become a lot more interesting with the 06z models.

I think you can throw those models in the can due to the shear being 20kts higher than modeled

[tolakram]

When was the last time the HWRF model was right?

[Blown Away]

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1200 UTC 20.5N 152.8W T1.5/2.5 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific
29/1145 UTC 20.9N 65.4W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
29/0600 UTC 19.9N 150.7W T2.5/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific
29/0545 UTC 20.6N 63.0W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
29/0000 UTC 19.8N 149.5W T3.0/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific

Flossie/91L nearly at same latitude...Both crappy systems...

[ROCK]

When was the last time the HWRF model was right?

never....

[canes04]

Also appears the strong mid level is trying to pull back the surface feature. If they stack, game on.
ULL looks to be weakening as well. Time will tell.

[Meso]

I think the next 48 hours are very telling... If Dorian can survive it, then he has a shot in the 3-5 day range. However it is still very possible that the shear may prove too much in the short term. None the less it's definitely fascinating to see the models go from doom-and-gloom for Dorian to hurricane strength in a single run.

[Dave]

Thanks Chris for the info.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW starting to show the lack of circulation and the fact it's deforming a bit. IMO this is the beginning of the end.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.