ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2801 Postby weatherwindow » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:18 am

:uarrow: It is rather remarkable that the globals disavow any knowledge of this system and yet SHIPS etc plug away at near hurricane strength down the road...the definition of model schizophrenia :D....Grtz from KW, Rich
Last edited by weatherwindow on Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2802 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:18 am

these intensity models are all over the place...switching from run to run...worthless until you have a real storm, IMO....

just a summary of the globals

06Z NAVGEM- shows wave
06Z GFS- shows a wave
0Z CMC- shows wave
0Z EURO- shows a wave

it must be a wave right now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2803 Postby stormgeek » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:19 am

Quite a change in the model intensity!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2804 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:23 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2805 Postby Caribwxgirl » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:27 am

Bocadude85 wrote:I will say that this tropical wave looks much better then TS Flossie does.

Flossie http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06E/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

91L http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif


Indeed the convection appears stronger with the wave than the Tropical Storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2806 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:30 am

Bocadude85 wrote:I see some inflow and outflow appears to be improving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif


But convection is also waning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

I wonder if the convection is being enhanced by the ULL?


the outflow is EAST of any surface feature. A sign of very strong shear
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Re:

#2807 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:34 am

Alyono wrote:any center is still located WELL west of the convection... close to 66.5W based upon visible imagery. This indicates that like yesterday, strong shear continues to plague the system


Yeah, I agree with you, clearly the surface trough is closer to the 67th longitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2808 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:34 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2809 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:36 am

15 frame visible, one bad frame: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Looks like another one of those surface features is exposed. :)
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#2810 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:38 am

The intensity models for the most part can be thrown out due to shear being 20kts higher than modeled by them

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2811 Postby Meso » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:39 am

The intensity models are making me very :double:

While it's just one run so far, if Dorian has taught us anything, it's to listen to the models. As they have forecast the storm very well thus far. If the trend continues in future runs, while the storm may be having trouble now, it hints at definitely needing an eye kept on it.

Just ran the HWRF from 06Z and shows a strengthening Cat 1 hurricane in the GOM too... Suddenly things have become a lot more interesting with the 06z models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2812 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:40 am

Meso wrote:The intensity models are making me very :double:

While it's just one run so far, if Dorian has taught us anything, it's to listen to the models. As they have forecast the storm very well thus far. If the trend continues in future runs, while the storm may be having trouble now, it hints at definitely needing an eye kept on it.

Just ran the HWRF from 06Z and shows a strengthening Cat 1 hurricane in the GOM too... Suddenly things have become a lot more interesting with the 06z models.


I think you can throw those models in the can due to the shear being 20kts higher than modeled
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2813 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:42 am

When was the last time the HWRF model was right? :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2814 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:44 am

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1200 UTC 20.5N 152.8W T1.5/2.5 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific
29/1145 UTC 20.9N 65.4W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
29/0600 UTC 19.9N 150.7W T2.5/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific
29/0545 UTC 20.6N 63.0W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
29/0000 UTC 19.8N 149.5W T3.0/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific


Flossie/91L nearly at same latitude...Both crappy systems... :D

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Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2815 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:44 am

tolakram wrote:When was the last time the HWRF model was right? :)



:lol: :lol: never....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2816 Postby canes04 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:44 am

Also appears the strong mid level is trying to pull back the surface feature. If they stack, game on.
ULL looks to be weakening as well. Time will tell.
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#2817 Postby Meso » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:47 am

I think the next 48 hours are very telling... If Dorian can survive it, then he has a shot in the 3-5 day range. However it is still very possible that the shear may prove too much in the short term. None the less it's definitely fascinating to see the models go from doom-and-gloom for Dorian to hurricane strength in a single run.
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#2818 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:48 am

Thanks Chris for the info.
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#2819 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:49 am

Specifics aren't important, but the fact that the HWRF now develops this storm, and robustly when it otherwise hadn't been the past few days, shows that conditions will become quite favorable as time progresses. We will have to see how quickly it can develop a decent surface center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2820 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:49 am

MIMIC-TPW starting to show the lack of circulation and the fact it's deforming a bit. IMO this is the beginning of the end. :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

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