Tropical Wave in C Atlantic (Dropped from Surface Analysis)

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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#21 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:19 pm

Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#22 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:25 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

You're right :) Let's wait maybe two weeks?!! but after mid August things could change and we have to watch any twaves exiting Africa. 2 July storms is pretty rare in IMO so that was nice to monitor them.
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#23 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:44 pm

Gustywind wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

You're right :) Let's wait maybe two weeks?!! but after mid August things could change and we have to watch any twaves exiting Africa. 2 July storms is pretty rare in IMO so that was nice to monitor them.

Yeah by august 3rd the ALT looks to be a mess. However, I'm sticking to my guns about short term strengthening before this wave is killed by SAL and shear. By short term I mean in the next 48 hours we may see a somewhat strong wave. But this storm will definitely not share Dorians "I think I can" mindset.
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#24 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:58 pm

Cycloneye, any chance it stays south of SAL and survives?
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#25 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:00 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

You're right :) Let's wait maybe two weeks?!! but after mid August things could change and we have to watch any twaves exiting Africa. 2 July storms is pretty rare in IMO so that was nice to monitor them.

Yeah by august 3rd the ALT looks to be a mess. However, I'm sticking to my guns about short term strengthening before this wave is killed by SAL and shear. By short term I mean in the next 48 hours we may see a somewhat strong wave. But this storm will definitely not share Dorians "I think I can" mindset.


There is 20kts of shear over it now. Too much for it to organize.

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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#26 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:07 pm

:uarrow: I disagree. Shear hasnt been the main problem this season. Dry air has. If this wave can get by the SAL, its good. Convection looks fairly good, lets see if it can mantain. :wink:
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#27 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:11 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote::uarrow: I disagree. Shear hasnt been the main problem this season. Dry air has. If this wave can get by the SAL, its good. Convection looks fairly good, lets see if it can mantain. :wink:



It's been a combination of both. Both led to demise of chantal and dorian.

Here is the latest shear map. You can see how there is shear right over the wave.

ImageUploaded with ImageShack.com
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#28 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:26 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
HurricaneDREW92 wrote::uarrow: I disagree. Shear hasnt been the main problem this season. Dry air has. If this wave can get by the SAL, its good. Convection looks fairly good, lets see if it can mantain. :wink:



It's been a combination of both. Both led to demise of chantal and dorian.

Here is the latest shear map. You can see how there is shear right over the wave.

ImageUploaded with ImageShack.com

Very weak shear, south of SAL and somewhat warm waters show a marginally conductive enviroment for this wave. :)
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:28 pm

8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 16N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
INFLUENCE OF A MONSOONAL GYRE...BUT IT APPEARS THIS LOWER LEVEL
FEATURE HAS WEAKED AND THE WAVE WILL BEGIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF 14N39W TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT DUE TO A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N E OF 37W.
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#30 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 16N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
INFLUENCE OF A MONSOONAL GYRE...BUT IT APPEARS THIS LOWER LEVEL
FEATURE HAS WEAKED AND THE WAVE WILL BEGIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF 14N39W TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT DUE TO A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N E OF 37W.

Once it moves W, it should have a chance. :cheesy:
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#31 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:35 pm

:uarrow:
Given the latest TWD looks like chances are even slim to see a strong twave from this one... if the dry air continues to weaken this twave. We should have to wait again to see much more organized twaves. But as usual, let's see what happens.
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Re:

#32 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:37 pm

Gustywind wrote::uarrow:
Given the latest TWD looks like chances are even slim to see a strong twave from this one... if the dry air continues to weaken this twave. We should have to wait again to see much more organized twaves. But as usual, let's see what happens.

Very true, but convection has increased in the blob east of the axis in the 00z image.
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#33 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:06 pm

36-48hrs should be good. 5% after that lets see what DMAX does to it in 8hrs. Should be interesting. 8-)
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#34 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:46 pm

Here is an IR shot. Convection looking good, for now:

Image
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#35 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

i issue i see that under 10 n that pretty south
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Re:

#36 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:12 pm

floridasun78 wrote:an issue i see that under 10 n that pretty south

I know. We will have to see by morning.
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#37 Postby fci » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:19 pm

Isn't the MJO supposed to be positive around now?
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Re:

#38 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:32 pm

fci wrote:Isn't the MJO supposed to be positive around now?

not yet
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#39 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:48 pm

The mjo if the Euro is right will be coming around the 2nd week of August
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Re: Tropical wave in East Atlantic

#40 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:26 am

Looking fairly good this morning.
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