Tropical Wave in C Atlantic (Dropped from Surface Analysis)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

[Gustywind]

Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

You're right Let's wait maybe two weeks?!! but after mid August things could change and we have to watch any twaves exiting Africa. 2 July storms is pretty rare in IMO so that was nice to monitor them.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

You're right Let's wait maybe two weeks?!! but after mid August things could change and we have to watch any twaves exiting Africa. 2 July storms is pretty rare in IMO so that was nice to monitor them.

Yeah by august 3rd the ALT looks to be a mess. However, I'm sticking to my guns about short term strengthening before this wave is killed by SAL and shear. By short term I mean in the next 48 hours we may see a somewhat strong wave. But this storm will definitely not share Dorians "I think I can" mindset.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Cycloneye, any chance it stays south of SAL and survives?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Wouldn't bother looking for anything to develop out in the eastern Atlantic for quite a while. This latest Sal outbreak will most definitely kill any wave that rolls off Africa and tries to come across the Atlantic. If we want any action will have to look closer to home but that doesn't look promising at all either. Looks to be a very boring next few weeks. At least the pacific has some action to watch.

You're right Let's wait maybe two weeks?!! but after mid August things could change and we have to watch any twaves exiting Africa. 2 July storms is pretty rare in IMO so that was nice to monitor them.

Yeah by august 3rd the ALT looks to be a mess. However, I'm sticking to my guns about short term strengthening before this wave is killed by SAL and shear. By short term I mean in the next 48 hours we may see a somewhat strong wave. But this storm will definitely not share Dorians "I think I can" mindset.

There is 20kts of shear over it now. Too much for it to organize.

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[HurricaneDREW92]

I disagree. Shear hasnt been the main problem this season. Dry air has. If this wave can get by the SAL, its good. Convection looks fairly good, lets see if it can mantain.

[Hurricane Alexis]

:uarrow: I disagree. Shear hasnt been the main problem this season. Dry air has. If this wave can get by the SAL, its good. Convection looks fairly good, lets see if it can mantain.

It's been a combination of both. Both led to demise of chantal and dorian.

Here is the latest shear map. You can see how there is shear right over the wave.

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

[HurricaneDREW92]

:uarrow: I disagree. Shear hasnt been the main problem this season. Dry air has. If this wave can get by the SAL, its good. Convection looks fairly good, lets see if it can mantain.

It's been a combination of both. Both led to demise of chantal and dorian.

Here is the latest shear map. You can see how there is shear right over the wave.

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

Very weak shear, south of SAL and somewhat warm waters show a marginally conductive enviroment for this wave.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 16N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
INFLUENCE OF A MONSOONAL GYRE...BUT IT APPEARS THIS LOWER LEVEL
FEATURE HAS WEAKED AND THE WAVE WILL BEGIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF 14N39W TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT DUE TO A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N E OF 37W.

[HurricaneDREW92]

8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 16N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
INFLUENCE OF A MONSOONAL GYRE...BUT IT APPEARS THIS LOWER LEVEL
FEATURE HAS WEAKED AND THE WAVE WILL BEGIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF 14N39W TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT DUE TO A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N E OF 37W.

Once it moves W, it should have a chance.

[Gustywind]

Given the latest TWD looks like chances are even slim to see a strong twave from this one... if the dry air continues to weaken this twave. We should have to wait again to see much more organized twaves. But as usual, let's see what happens.

[HurricaneDREW92]

:uarrow:
Given the latest TWD looks like chances are even slim to see a strong twave from this one... if the dry air continues to weaken this twave. We should have to wait again to see much more organized twaves. But as usual, let's see what happens.

Very true, but convection has increased in the blob east of the axis in the 00z image.

[HurricaneDREW92]

36-48hrs should be good. 5% after that lets see what DMAX does to it in 8hrs. Should be interesting.

[gatorcane]

Here is an IR shot. Convection looking good, for now:

[floridasun78]

i issue i see that under 10 n that pretty south

[HurricaneDREW92]

an issue i see that under 10 n that pretty south

I know. We will have to see by morning.

[fci]

Isn't the MJO supposed to be positive around now?

[floridasun78]

Isn't the MJO supposed to be positive around now?

not yet

[Hurricaneman]

The mjo if the Euro is right will be coming around the 2nd week of August

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looking fairly good this morning.