Strong SAL outbreak

[psyclone]

nothing impressive over africa. i wonder how many augusts had no named storms.

truth be told, these season over posts are getting a bit annoying. It is still July and we have had 2 storms in the MDR this month. How many Julys have this?

It's the same thing every year...by the same people! It doesn't matter how many times the storm frequency graphic is posted or anything else...it is almost bizarre. nothing wrong with checking out until things get hopping, which, per our friendly climo graphic, may still be a couple weeks away since our ascent to peak season is just now commencing from a low baseline.

[NDG]

nothing impressive over africa. i wonder how many augusts had no named storms.

truth be told, these season over posts are getting a bit annoying. It is still July and we have had 2 storms in the MDR this month. How many Julys have this?

Since you asked the question and there is nothing to track I took the momment to go back 20 years.
I want to compare apples to apples so I looked at years with a neutral ENSO during JJA period at Nino 3.4

I came up with 10 years and this was their activity during July:

1993-No tropical systems formed
1994-One TD
1995-Three Tropical Storms
1996-One Cat 1 Hurricane and one Cat 3 Hurricane
2001-One TD
2003-Two TDs and one Tropical Storm
2005-Two Tropical Storms, one Cat 1, one Cat 4 & one Cat 5 Hurricane
2006-One TD & One Tropical Storm
2008-One Tropical Storm, one Cat 2 & one Cat 3 Hurricane
2012-No tropical systems formed

Two years came to my attention compared to this July which were 2001 & 2012.
In 2001 no tropical system strengthened into a hurricane within the MDR (below the 20th latitude).
It was not until October and November that two hurricanes formed below the 20th latitude which did in the western Caribbean.
On both years TWs struggled with dry air at the MDR during July.
Like I have said before this could be another year that it would be hard for tropical systems to strengthen at the MDR, they would have to gain latitude like in 2001 & 2012 or wait for later in the season for the MDR to moisten up some.

[SouthFloridawx]

Stupid question... wouldn't more sand and dust in the water increase water temps over time, due to density? Radiant heating so on and so forth...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Haven't seen anybody post that the season is for all intent and purpose, over. It gets just as annoying reading post after post arguing with pro mets and nhc about it has to have an llc look at it, its not dead its making a comeback look at the amount of convection, remember andrew in 1992( yes i do it was 21 long YEARS AGO),this wave is going to be the next "e" storm and will be a hurricane even though its smack in the middle of a huge sal outbreak etc etc. People obviously can say what they want and have their on thoughts whether right or wrong.

Now about the Sal. Made front page news on MSN today. Long story short, it should keep things quiet for a couple of weeks.

[Zanthe]

Season over. Atlantic Ocean over. The whole ocean has frozen. Global warming. Y2K.

Seriously, it's hardly August. We're still somewhat removed from the peak, and we've already had four storms. Lets not forget that 1992 didn't have a named storm until mid August, and that was Hurricane Andrew. There were still seven named storms, four hurricanes and one major.

[Cyclenall]

Haven't seen anybody post that the season is for all intent and purpose, over.

I have (seen).

[meriland23]

Considering what is going on with the SAL right now, what does that indicate for aug, sept and why?

[meriland23]

Everyone be talking about the SAL and no named storms.. maybe cape verde will be dudsy for a while, but I would really pay attention to carribean born storms.. those could be something else this season.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Haven't seen anybody post that the season is for all intent and purpose, over. It gets just as annoying reading post after post arguing with pro mets and nhc about it has to have an llc look at it, its not dead its making a comeback look at the amount of convection, remember andrew in 1992( yes i do it was 21 long YEARS AGO),this wave is going to be the next "e" storm and will be a hurricane even though its smack in the middle of a huge sal outbreak etc etc. People obviously can say what they want and have their on thoughts whether right or wrong.

Now about the Sal. Made front page news on MSN today. Long story short, it should keep things quiet for a couple of weeks.

The thing is that the Atlantic goes quiet for a week and people start posting, whether directly or indirectly, that the forecasts were wrong or that the whole season is gonna be unfavorable for development. Some don't understand that we're not in the WPAC and that the atlantic has marginal conditionals for development on average.

[NDG]

The African dust very noticeable this morning on satellite.

[wxman57]

Stupid question... wouldn't more sand and dust in the water increase water temps over time, due to density? Radiant heating so on and so forth...

No. The increased easterly trades associated with an outbreak lead to more upwelling of cool water, resulting in decreased SSTs. That's what happened much of last season in the deep tropics.

[NDG]

I thought I also read that the dust also obscures "some" of the sun light and energy from reaching down to the sea surface.

[HURAKAN]

latest, approaching the Lesser Antilles

[Tireman4]

https://sphotos-a-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/994851_595856537103474_1764079883_n.jpg

latest, approaching the Lesser Antilles

Amateur question...will this dust (SAL) make a difference in the temperatures/weather in our neck (CONUS) of the woods if it were to make it our way?

[northjaxpro]

I thought I also read that the dust also obscures "some" of the sun light and energy from reaching down to the sea surface.

Yep. The dust effectively blocks the sunlight from heating the sea surface, thus robbing a critical source for the potential of tropical cyclones from developing.

[HURAKAN]

Amateur question...will this dust (SAL) make a difference in the temperatures/weather in our neck (CONUS) of the woods if it were to make it our way?

Normally it's very weak by the time it reaches the US.

[abajan]

I thought I also read that the dust also obscures "some" of the sun light and energy from reaching down to the sea surface.

Yep. The dust effectively blocks the sunlight from heating the sea surface, thus robbing a critical source for the potential of tropical cyclones from developing.

I guess it can also be argued that the dust attenuates radiation cooling at night.

[Decomdoug]

I came across this article in the Palm Beach Post this afternoon:

"African dust storm helping slow Atlantic hurricane potential"

By Sonja Isger

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/weath ... ane/nZBZt/

[SapphireSea]

I thought I also read that the dust also obscures "some" of the sun light and energy from reaching down to the sea surface.

Yep. The dust effectively blocks the sunlight from heating the sea surface, thus robbing a critical source for the potential of tropical cyclones from developing.

I guess it can also be argued that the dust attenuates radiation cooling at night.

I believe it's main detractor for development is the fact that the dust acts as an inversion layer that prevents convectional force, not unlike normal low-mid atmospheric capping. There has been a paper that does write, that this causes steeper lapse rates after it is removed or overcome by sufficient lift, and again unlike normal caps which break over land and cause powerful storm cells to develop out of what seems at random.

Stronger SAL is also a result not the cause of stronger trade winds which do upwell and circulate water better, preventing SSTs from increasing more than they could.

There is also the case that wind carrying SAL is also very dry, and is not a direct cause of the dust in the air, just displacement and progression of the stable Saharan air mass, not unlike trough energies progressing across Canada and the CONUS in movement. (Troughs can pick up baroclinic energy, while SAL is dispersed as it travels thus weakening).

[tolakram]

Big Atlantic picture from the FTP site. You can see the outline of this SAL outbreak.