West PAC - disturbance near 140E (Is Invest 96W)

[RL3AO]

Lots of model support on this one. GFS/Euro/GEM all develop what appears to be a strong typhoon approaching Asia in 10 days.

Looks like its connected to the area approaching the anti-meridian on the right side of the image.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah...this one looks interesting...looks to take the same track as the others too - across Luzon and then into the South China Sea. Given that ridge seems to be holding pretty firm across Taiwan and eastern China, it would at least seem that Hong Kong would be spared any significant impacts.

[dexterlabio]

I'm glad that ATL season followers also follow this other side of the world.

This one is interesting indeed, given that GFS has been showing a strong typhoon in the long range and it's been doing so for several runs now. The previous GFS model runs hint landfall in Taiwan. I'm not sure though if Luzon has a chance to be affected if ever..the latest 12z run seems to depict a stronger STR which leads to the system making its way towards S. China. Of course this is all long range talk. Besides, there is a potential TC even before this one that threatens the Central Philippines so we have to put our attention on that first. I'm currently in Manila, by the way.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah...this one looks interesting...looks to take the same track as the others too - across Luzon and then into the South China Sea. Given that ridge seems to be holding pretty firm across Taiwan and eastern China, it would at least seem that Hong Kong would be spared any significant impacts.

Are you referring to 94W? That's forecast to form in the next 48 -72 hours and potentially follow a similar path to Jebi. The storm mentioned in the opening thread is way off in the long range but the models have been very consistent in spinning it up. Anywhere between Okinawa and Luzon maybe need to keep an eye on this down the line since models depicting a firm ridge in place.

18Z follows 12z Dexter, another impact / close shave with northern Luzon. Whatever happens this "storm" is interesting to track in the models, almost feels like it's real!

[dexterlabio]

18Z follows 12z Dexter, another impact / close shave with northern Luzon. Whatever happens this "storm" is interesting to track in the models, almost feels like it's real!

Make it three times in a row. 00z shows this one making an impact in Northern Luzon then going towards Southern China, maybe close to HK. Still showing a stronger west pacific high. But this time around it seems like it's taking time to intensify unlike in the previous runs.

Yes I agree, it feels like it's already there.

[Alyono]

GFS totally dropped the typhoon

[RL3AO]

Yep. Seven or eight straight runs and now no where to be seen.

[dexterlabio]

it's actually up on 18z run...but a weaker system instead of a strong typhoon... Euro also shows a weak system out of this.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Big backtrack from GFS there. Wpac ACE really suffering this season, where are the typhoons?!

[dexterlabio]

It feels like La Nina condition is present...strong ridge of high pressure dominating across the Pacific, westward movement of systems and towards SCS, limited area of development of tropical cyclones.. I'm not sure how many typhoons will appear in the future but take note that even those years with strong La Nina present had intense typhoons. There might only be a few of them forming, but these few could be the ones we should keep an eye on..like in 1998 and 2010.

[euro6208]

Come on Typhoons!

[dexterlabio]

and the latest GFS run says nada. oh well, I'm feeling the 2010 vibes right now.

[vrif]

The latest 0Z EC and GFS runs are detecting the storm again from forecast hour 144 onwards. I wonder if it will stay in the future runs.

[alan1961]

Latest GFS 12z run develops a storm around Luzon around a week
from now



and develops another one around the same time that goes crashing
into southern japan at the end of the run.

[RL3AO]

12z GFS back with a vengeance. Strongest it has had it yet, showing a 958mb system east of Luzon.

[RL3AO]

12z CMC develops a monster storm. When east of Okinawa, it shows 40kt winds at 900mb stretching from 127E to 145E (thats 1000 miles give or take).

[Typhoon Hunter]

GFS certainly back on the development bandwagon with this system. 18Z run shows a feature appear south of Guam around 4-5 day mark which is what I'd call the near to medium term. I'm starting to think the odds of development are looking better given the time frame, let's see if persistence holds.

CMC 12z was a weird run, showed two TCs merging together and forming a monster, I don't buy that!

I highly recommend Levi Cowen's webpage for the models. Really nice graphics for GFS, NAVGEM and CMC - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[dexterlabio]

GFS 00z still shows this system but looks to have weakened before the 13th, then the next time frames show an intense typhoon tracking towards Taiwan up to the 18th. So basically that was another system isn't it? not the same system it's been showing to form later this week near Guam?

By the way, it may not be obvious but Euro 12z is also showing development of a weak low pressure system near Luzon sometime between 10-12 of August.

[vrif]

GFS 00z still shows this system but looks to have weakened before the 13th, then the next time frames show an intense typhoon tracking towards Taiwan up to the 21st. So basically that was another system isn't it? not the same system it's been showing to form later this week near Guam?

By the way, it may not be obvious but Euro 12z is also showing development of a weak low pressure system near Luzon sometime between 10-12 of August.

I think it may be the same system. The strong typhoon was shown on the August 1st 0Z run +240hr forecast, which would correspond to August 5th 0Z +120hr or +144hr.

The current 0Z +120 hr (Aug 10 0Z) forecast is indicating a weak low pressure region east of the Philippines from all the models. Even +72hr is showing this region further out east.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hmmm odd GFS 00z run, basically killed off the storm again and does very weird things with a storm out at 300hrs+. Wouldn't be surprised to see our "Utor" back again in 06z runs!