Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[StormTracker]

:uarrow: yeah that one at 45W is the guy I have been watching....it has the more vigorious LLC than the one in front IMO....still though it is sheared.....can we get something to stack for more than a day or two??

Stack: An orderly pile, especially one arranged in layers! A large, usually conical, circular, or rectangular pile of hay, straw, or the like. In this case, upper/middle/low level circulation as my avatar indicates!

[HurricaneDREW92]

It definitely deserves a mention.

With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.

This may be but why couldnt they just give it 0/10 and mention little model support as of yet?

[Riptide]

General observation here, the easterly flow has slowed down considerably in August; MDR looks capable of sustaining a real TC.

[Blown Away]

It definitely deserves a mention.

With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.

Did the NHC have the ASCAT before they would have issued the 8pm update?

[cycloneye]

It definitely deserves a mention.

With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.

Did the NHC have the ASCAT before they would have issued the 8pm update?

8 PM TWO came out at 7:15 PM EDT and ASCAT pass was at 7:57 PM EDT.

[TheStormExpert]

Could someone please tell me the coordinates of this wave.

[Fego]

TWO 8:00 PM

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

Stop the presses! The 00z Surface Analysis has added a surface trough at 46W so the wave and this trough are different entities so title of thread was modified.

[BigB0882]

Is this the one a model shows hitting Texas as a TS down the road? If so, it does have at least one model on it.

[ROCK]

Is this the one a model shows hitting Texas as a TS down the road? If so, it does have at least one model on it.

no...whatever that experimental model is showing orignates down by Panama.....these 2 entities do not have model support attm...CMC had it a few days ago...but has dropped it...

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is this the one a model shows hitting Texas as a TS down the road? If so, it does have at least one model on it.

no...whatever that experimental model is showing orignates down by Panama.....these 2 entities do not have model support attm...CMC had it a few days ago...but has dropped it...

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3h

The FIM is the first model to develop the tropical wave I mentioned to watch in W. Carib. starting in 8-9 days. pic.twitter.com/lBdVD6u1xP

[cycloneye]

The 06z surface analysis has a weak low.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[GCANE]

Watching 12N 53W

Convection with defined 850mb vorticity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


All clear at 200mb and anti-cyclone to the immediate west.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

[NDG]

Not sure if this tropical wave will survive much longer, the environment is still fairly dry in the MDR and there is the TUTT ahead over Hispaniola & central Caribbean, though it is forecasted by the GFS for the TUTT to keep moving west and for an UL ridge to build over time in its place.

[northjaxpro]

We shall see what happens down the road. I am waiting to see if more models jump on board concerning this entity. If it can stay intact and progress farther into the Caribbean (central and western portions) within the next 5-7 days, it may have a shot.

[Sanibel]

Clear vorticity on visible. A spot or two of weak convection appearing too. You get to a point where ripe conditions overcome dry air.

[ROCK]

covection is firing over that semi exposed LLC now....see if it can last...

[ROCK]

that upper level anticyclone is still sending in mid level shear....but it seems to be lessening....that last batch of convection seemed to fan out instead of being blown off.....I think these 2 areas are too close together. The one in front needs to stop robbing the better LLC behind it....JMO...

looking at the one in front the rotation is clearly way out in front but what more interesting is the way it flared up to the SE...obviously there is a better environment to the south. I want to see what happen when that second area / LLC gets in that position.

[fwbbreeze]

Hey Rock, are you referencing the area just approaching the southern islands? Nice little convection blowup this afternoon.