Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2903
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#101 Postby StormTracker » Mon Aug 05, 2013 8:19 pm

ROCK wrote::uarrow: yeah that one at 45W is the guy I have been watching....it has the more vigorious LLC than the one in front IMO....still though it is sheared.....can we get something to stack for more than a day or two?? :D

Stack: An orderly pile, especially one arranged in layers! A large, usually conical, circular, or rectangular pile of hay, straw, or the like. In this case, upper/middle/low level circulation as my avatar indicates!
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!

HurricaneDREW92
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 320
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:56 am
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Re:

#102 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Mon Aug 05, 2013 8:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
alienstorm wrote:It definitely deserves a mention.


With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.

This may be but why couldnt they just give it 0/10 and mention little model support as of yet? :?:
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY

User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#103 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:11 pm

General observation here, the easterly flow has slowed down considerably in August; MDR looks capable of sustaining a real TC.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Re:

#104 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:
alienstorm wrote:It definitely deserves a mention.


With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.


Did the NHC have the ASCAT before they would have issued the 8pm update?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145365
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Re:

#105 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
alienstorm wrote:It definitely deserves a mention.


With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.


Did the NHC have the ASCAT before they would have issued the 8pm update?


8 PM TWO came out at 7:15 PM EDT and ASCAT pass was at 7:57 PM EDT.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

TheStormExpert

#106 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:37 pm

Could someone please tell me the coordinates of this wave.
0 likes   

User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#107 Postby Fego » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:52 pm

TWO 8:00 PM
...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
0 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145365
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:58 pm

Stop the presses! The 00z Surface Analysis has added a surface trough at 46W so the wave and this trough are different entities so title of thread was modified.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#109 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 05, 2013 10:19 pm

Is this the one a model shows hitting Texas as a TS down the road? If so, it does have at least one model on it.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#110 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 05, 2013 11:12 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Is this the one a model shows hitting Texas as a TS down the road? If so, it does have at least one model on it.


no...whatever that experimental model is showing orignates down by Panama.....these 2 entities do not have model support attm...CMC had it a few days ago...but has dropped it...
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Alexis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
Location: Miami,Florida

Re: Re:

#111 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Aug 05, 2013 11:35 pm

ROCK wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Is this the one a model shows hitting Texas as a TS down the road? If so, it does have at least one model on it.


no...whatever that experimental model is showing orignates down by Panama.....these 2 entities do not have model support attm...CMC had it a few days ago...but has dropped it...


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3h

The FIM is the first model to develop the tropical wave I mentioned to watch in W. Carib. starting in 8-9 days. pic.twitter.com/lBdVD6u1xP
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145365
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#112 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 06, 2013 5:09 am

The 06z surface analysis has a weak low.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145365
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#113 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 06, 2013 6:34 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#114 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 06, 2013 7:24 am

0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#115 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:06 am

Not sure if this tropical wave will survive much longer, the environment is still fairly dry in the MDR and there is the TUTT ahead over Hispaniola & central Caribbean, though it is forecasted by the GFS for the TUTT to keep moving west and for an UL ridge to build over time in its place.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#116 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:07 am

We shall see what happens down the road. I am waiting to see if more models jump on board concerning this entity. If it can stay intact and progress farther into the Caribbean (central and western portions) within the next 5-7 days, it may have a shot.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#117 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 06, 2013 9:01 am

Clear vorticity on visible. A spot or two of weak convection appearing too. You get to a point where ripe conditions overcome dry air.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#118 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 06, 2013 9:03 am

covection is firing over that semi exposed LLC now....see if it can last...
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#119 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:14 am

that upper level anticyclone is still sending in mid level shear....but it seems to be lessening....that last batch of convection seemed to fan out instead of being blown off.....I think these 2 areas are too close together. The one in front needs to stop robbing the better LLC behind it....JMO...

looking at the one in front the rotation is clearly way out in front but what more interesting is the way it flared up to the SE...obviously there is a better environment to the south. I want to see what happen when that second area / LLC gets in that position.
0 likes   

User avatar
fwbbreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:09 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Atlantic

#120 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:22 pm

Hey Rock, are you referencing the area just approaching the southern islands? Nice little convection blowup this afternoon.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], riapal, TampaWxLurker and 38 guests