Global model runs discussion

[hurricanetrack]

And apparently neither did Levi Cowan who has said repeatedly on his video discussions etc that the "frigid" Indian Ocean was an enhancing signal due to the sinking air there that would in turn lead to rising air over Africa. Just pointing out what was said. And with the cold IO, perhaps that is why the MJO has died. No place to really get started?

In the end, we'll know come November 30

['CaneFreak]

This is a good point that also needs to be brought up again - no offense to the guy but he is NOT a MET and doesn't understand the overall global circulation all that well. He thinks he does but he doesn't. A cold west Indian Ocean IS a significant problem in tropical wave production in my humble opinion.

And apparently neither did Levi Cowan who has said repeatedly on his video discussions etc that the "frigid" Indian Ocean was an enhancing signal due to the sinking air there that would in turn lead to rising air over Africa. Just pointing out what was said. And with the cold IO, perhaps that is why the MJO has died. No place to really get started?

In the end, we'll know come November 30

[hurricanetrack]

I do have to wonder if the typhoon activity and the east Pacific hurricane activity is simply a precursor to what's coming for the Atlantic? I think that once we see activity wane in the Pacific, that the Atlantic will spring to life, just like it should at the end of August. There are just too many positives this season that favor lots of hurricanes. We'll have almost no help from MJO, so be it. Let the natural progression of things take root and we'll have plenty to track. If not, we get to start all over again on 6/1/14.

[Cat5Danny]

Hi to all!!
First i would like to say this site has ben a guide for me during the years, i always like to read and keep my self informed with all the analysis that are available. I have no education on the science of meteorology not even close lol all that i have learned is from years of being a big learner of what i see and read on sites like this one, by the way it is my favorite one
My question is:
Would it be possible that the hurricane season could be delayed by the weather patterns that seems to be off around the globe? i mean we have seen strange patterns going on, like when is supposed to be hot one place i cold and vice versa.
Once again is just a question and it might be silly for some. thanks and keep up the great job on this site!!!

[bamajammer4eva]

This map has been shown in years past and assuming things are moving as they normally are, one would think that the favorable conditions in the Pacific should work their way over to the Atlantic with time. Active periods for the Atlantic usually follow active periods in the E Pac and the past week or two have been active over there.

[hurricaneCW]

Given every forecast predicts an active season, it will be a major bust if the Atlantic never gets going. Now I highly doubt it's going to bust, but it's going to take a bit longer than usual for things to get going. That major SAL outbreak at the end of July through early August really upped the hostility and sinking air throughout the Atlantic so it'll take time for things to recover.

I'm thinking this season August 20 and beyond is when things will really pick up, especially in the MDR. I do feel we could see something before then in the Western Caribbean or SW Gulf though.

If we somehow get through this month without one hurricane, then this season will probably end up less active than currently expected.

[TheStormExpert]

This is an extremely interesting point that I never even thought of. Thanks for sharing.

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

Could be an issue, but why were the disturbances that came off Africa in June and early July much stronger than now?

[TheStormExpert]

The Weather Channel has been saying this week is going to unfavorable for development overall. Then next week should become more favorable for at least the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

Look how relatively dead Africa is for mid August, no wonder why the globals are not bullish on anything coming off Africa for the next couple of weeks.

[ninel conde]

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

yea, nothing thru aug 26. probably longer as there are no apparent lows ready to pop on the 26th. 2 things many are missing or ignoring is the multi-year trend of bone dry mid level air and stable conditions. considering its persisted through this season as well its not totally unreasonable to expect it to continue. will be interesting to see if any strong waves start showing up on the models with convection.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

there is simply no moisture for the waves to work with. i have to assume the models are factoring in the dry air.

[Alyono]

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

yea, nothing thru aug 26. probably longer as there are no apparent lows ready to pop on the 26th. 2 things many are missing or ignoring is the multi-year trend of bone dry mid level air and stable conditions. considering its persisted through this season as well its not totally unreasonable to expect it to continue. will be interesting to see if any strong waves start showing up on the models with convection.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

there is simply no moisture for the waves to work with. i have to assume the models are factoring in the dry air.

It's not the lack of moisture, it is the lack of waves and disturbances

[ninel conde]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp48.png

that does show lower pressures at 384 in the far west carib. but even if it verifies it has alot of land to deal with.

[gatorcane]

Here is today's 12Z ECMWF that just ran. The model is not good at predicting genesis, but it is showing a large and broad area of low pressure moving off Africa at 240 hours (Aug. 20th) just south of the Cape Verde islands at a latitude that would be good for development and also in line with climo.

Also notice that the model is showing high pressure shifting more West in the Atlantic than where it has been the past couple of weeks and anchoring between 50W and 60W. This pattern is something to look for as we move closer to the peak as it could prevent recurvature of systems.

[hurricanekid416]

This map has been shown in years past and assuming things are moving as they normally are, one would think that the favorable conditions in the Pacific should work their way over to the Atlantic with time. Active periods for the Atlantic usually follow active periods in the E Pac and the past week or two have been active over there.

Notice how upward motion is suppressed over Africa would this be the reason of the lack of waves over Africa

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Given every forecast predicts an active season, it will be a major bust if the Atlantic never gets going. Now I highly doubt it's going to bust, but it's going to take a bit longer than usual for things to get going. That major SAL outbreak at the end of July through early August really upped the hostility and sinking air throughout the Atlantic so it'll take time for things to recover.

I'm thinking this season August 20 and beyond is when things will really pick up, especially in the MDR. I do feel we could see something before then in the Western Caribbean or SW Gulf though.

If we somehow get through this month without one hurricane, then this season will probably end up less active than currently expected.

And that's what I'm thinking.

[Kingarabian]

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

Makes sense. Couple that with the lack of instability...

[bamajammer4eva]

This map has been shown in years past and assuming things are moving as they normally are, one would think that the favorable conditions in the Pacific should work their way over to the Atlantic with time. Active periods for the Atlantic usually follow active periods in the E Pac and the past week or two have been active over there.

Notice how upward motion is suppressed over Africa would this be the reason of the lack of waves over Africa

It is my understanding that although the waves come from East or Africa, the favorable conditions come from the West and the Pacific sees storms first with the wave of favorable conditions and then it crosses into the Atlantic. I could be wrong though so someone correct me if I am.

[MetroMike]

Sorry about referencing The Weather Channel, but their tropical expert said that in a week or so a Kelvin Wave was supposed to be forming in the Gulf area and traveling east across the MDR and and aiding to suppress the hostile upper level winds. Anyone have any insight on this event?

[ninel conde]

Sorry about referencing The Weather Channel, but their tropical expert said that in a week or so a Kelvin Wave was supposed to be forming in the Gulf area and traveling east across the MDR and and aiding to suppress the hostile upper level winds. Anyone have any insight on this event?

not sure it will do much. im seeing modeling showing another outbreak of SAL next week.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows no development through 384 hours (Aug. 26th)