In the end, we'll know come November 30

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hurricanetrack wrote:And apparently neither did Levi Cowan who has said repeatedly on his video discussions etc that the "frigid" Indian Ocean was an enhancing signal due to the sinking air there that would in turn lead to rising air over Africa. Just pointing out what was said. And with the cold IO, perhaps that is why the MJO has died. No place to really get started?
In the end, we'll know come November 30
'CaneFreak wrote:This is an extremely interesting point that I never even thought of. Thanks for sharing.Alyono wrote:12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.
One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor
Alyono wrote:12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.
One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor
Alyono wrote:12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.
One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor
ninel conde wrote:Alyono wrote:12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.
One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor
yea, nothing thru aug 26. probably longer as there are no apparent lows ready to pop on the 26th. 2 things many are missing or ignoring is the multi-year trend of bone dry mid level air and stable conditions. considering its persisted through this season as well its not totally unreasonable to expect it to continue. will be interesting to see if any strong waves start showing up on the models with convection.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=
there is simply no moisture for the waves to work with. i have to assume the models are factoring in the dry air.
bamajammer4eva wrote:This map has been shown in years past and assuming things are moving as they normally are, one would think that the favorable conditions in the Pacific should work their way over to the Atlantic with time. Active periods for the Atlantic usually follow active periods in the E Pac and the past week or two have been active over there.
hurricaneCW wrote:Given every forecast predicts an active season, it will be a major bust if the Atlantic never gets going. Now I highly doubt it's going to bust, but it's going to take a bit longer than usual for things to get going. That major SAL outbreak at the end of July through early August really upped the hostility and sinking air throughout the Atlantic so it'll take time for things to recover.
I'm thinking this season August 20 and beyond is when things will really pick up, especially in the MDR. I do feel we could see something before then in the Western Caribbean or SW Gulf though.
If we somehow get through this month without one hurricane, then this season will probably end up less active than currently expected.
Alyono wrote:12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.
One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor
hurricanekid416 wrote:bamajammer4eva wrote:This map has been shown in years past and assuming things are moving as they normally are, one would think that the favorable conditions in the Pacific should work their way over to the Atlantic with time. Active periods for the Atlantic usually follow active periods in the E Pac and the past week or two have been active over there.
Notice how upward motion is suppressed over Africa would this be the reason of the lack of waves over Africa
MetroMike wrote:Sorry about referencing The Weather Channel, but their tropical expert said that in a week or so a Kelvin Wave was supposed to be forming in the Gulf area and traveling east across the MDR and and aiding to suppress the hostile upper level winds. Anyone have any insight on this event?
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