Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=nvg_troplant&dtg=2013081018&prod=sfc10m&tau=000&set=Tropical

18Z NAVGEM still has it...this time a little further north after crossing the Yucatan.

I guest we should start watching the western carribean around Tuesday or Wednesday for the initial stage of development.

I will be...

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 0zGFS is back to the idea of a Disturbance in the BOC come next weekend..



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[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM still has it....not finished with the run yet....will post when done...

[Rgv20]

0zNAVGEM and 0zCMC still showing the GOM system....In my opinion the CMC is way to fast with the speed and development of this disturbance as it has it as a 999mb low by Saturday Morning.

0zNAVGE forecast for Sunday Morning.


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0zCMC forecast for Saturday Morning.


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[cycloneye]

No mention yet.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

This is what Dr Jeff Masters said this morning about this.

Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

[ronjon]

I see that the 06z NAVGEM bounced back eastward now more in line with the 00z CMC with a FL panhandle LF. Meanwhile, the GFS wants to bury this feature in the BOC. The 00z Euro shows a pretty sharp trough digging down over La next weekend so if that 500 mb pattern develops, it looks like a more eastward path of this disturbance toward the central or east-central gulf coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013081100!!/

[NDG]

I think chances of a homegrown tropical system in the western Caribbean/southern GOM are growing.
With a trough digging down across the GL and then across the MS river valley it should push the persistent death ridge west towards the SW US, this in turn should make for an UL ridge position across the NW Caribbean and southern GOM by late next week, creating better UL conditions that have not been seen in this area in weeks.
Even the euro shows lowering pressures and disturbed weather in the central Caribbean through the next 3 days but after that it looses it and or broadens it up.
The GFS solution of a weak and track into the southern BOC of the potential system is somewhat suspicious with such a deep trough digging down across the MS river valley next week, IMO.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, I also believe that conditions should be more favorable for development next week in the GOM.

The key is that the death ride over Texas finally does break down. How much does the developing trough next week amplify is the huge factor if we get something to develop next week somewhere across the southern GOM/BOC.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here is a piece of this mornings long term forecast discussion from our local nws which will help with where this phantom storm might go IF it were to develop

Dont know how good conditions will be towards end of next week. Sounds like there could be a lot if shear to contend with as well. Anybody have a 5-7 day shear forecast map? Might be one our famous sheared gulf messes.

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP. THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY WED AND ONCE AGAIN WE LOOK TO MOVE INTO A
DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WHICH HAD DOMINATED MUCH OF THE SUMMER UNTIL
RECENTLY.

HEADING INTO WED AND THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH. THE BNDRY THAT HAS REMAINED WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTH ARKANSAS FLOODING
RAIN WILL GET A SURGE TO THE SOUTH UNDER NW FLOW WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO THE CWA THU
AND FRI AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WINK TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABV NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EXTENDED AND
WILL SHOW 40-60% THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Can anybody post a current satellite image of the system they are developing??

[Sanibel]

Don't see it. The season is unexpectedly negative. It should change by the peak however this could be the sign of a downturn in the MDO.

[wxman57]

I'm tracking down the feature that the models are developing later this week and it seems to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean (Pouch #16). Development may occur as early as Thursday/Friday, which is well within the NHC's 5-day outlook.

[NDG]

Can anybody post a current satellite image of the system they are developing??

Is the tropical wave entering the extreme eastern Caribbean/northern S.A.

[NDG]

GFS shows UL ridge to start building in the central Caribbean as early as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm tracking down the feature that the models are developing later this week and it seems to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean (Pouch #16). Development may occur as early as Thursday/Friday, which is well within the NHC's 5-day outlook.

Wxman, how do see the conditions in the gulf for that timeframe? Hostile sheared mess, or dont think the front and east coast trough will have much affect?

[gatorcane]

There certainly seems like there could be a mid-latitude trough passing through the Southern U.S. later this week into next weekend that could pick this up if the system gets deep enough. But fortunately the GFS keeps the system weak so heads into the BOC then southern Mexico with little to no development.

Here is the 06Z GFS 500MB steering 144 hours from now where you can see the trough digging down to the northern GOM and the system in the BOC:

[wxman57]

I'm tracking down the feature that the models are developing later this week and it seems to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean (Pouch #16). Development may occur as early as Thursday/Friday, which is well within the NHC's 5-day outlook.

Wxman, how do see the conditions in the gulf for that timeframe? Hostile sheared mess, or dont think the front and east coast trough will have much affect?

Models are forecasting shear to drop off significantly in the southern Gulf and NW Caribbean by Thursday. Still a bit high in the northern Gulf.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I'm tracking down the feature that the models are developing later this week and it seems to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean (Pouch #16). Development may occur as early as Thursday/Friday, which is well within the NHC's 5-day outlook.

When, if at all do you think we may see this in a TWO, wxman? Thanks in advance.

[cycloneye]

Here is what the pouch group has about P16L. wxman57,there is uncertainty about this pouch.

P16L
13N, 62W
700 hPa

NOTE: Same longitude as in yesterday's examination, which begs the question: Was yesterday's model depiction erroneous, or is this a different/new pouch farther east? My guess is the former. In both models, yesterday's analyses depicted a weak pouch that was difficult to determine an exact location. Today's analyses have a very distinct, circular pouch. I think that perhaps as P16L passed into the vicinity of the additional observations from the Windward Islands, the models were able to more accurately depict the wave/pouch. Then again, the analyses from the last couple days depicted P16L to be on the western edge of a larger circulation to the east. So, there is a bit of uncertainty here, but there is not enough evidence to initiate a brand new pouch.

ECMWF: Distinct pouch in the analysis tracks westward for two days as an OW max on the northern edge of the south Caribbean gyre for most of that time. After 48 hours, it becomes difficult to discern P16L from the larger gyre to the south, which then tracks northwestward (most likely as too large).

GFS: Lasts 12 hours longer than ECMWF as distinguishable from the south Caribbean gyre.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P16L.html