Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[tropicwatch]

I'm thinking development chances better than 50%. Most likely track would be to northern Yucatan on Thursday then northward. Eventual landfall between SE LA and FL Panhandle over the coming weekend. Probably not a large storm, as the favorable environment isn't large. Can't rule out a hurricane.

Great, another weekend shot

[sphelps8681]

I know wxman57 is a pro met, but was just curious on what it is that he sees that would cause him to make a prediction such as this. Are the models coming in to agreement with this senario?

[Dean4Storms]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121412
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 12 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

[ROCK]

so they are scheduling RECON over model runs....must be fairly confident something is going to form. ATTM there is nothing down there but a few clouds...

[tropicwatch]

Wow, I don't know if I have ever seen them schedule for something that doesn't even have an invest number.

[Dean4Storms]

so they are scheduling RECON over model runs....must be fairly confident something is going to form. ATTM there is nothing down there but a few clouds...

Check the co-ordinance, they're looking at the convection that does appear to have some slight rotation down in the SW Carib. Sea.

[Dean4Storms]

I see a pretty good circulation near 77W 12.5N moving westward.

[ROCK]

I see a pretty good circulation near 77W 12.5N moving westward.

mid level....but that will be inland so I dont think this is the feature to form.

RAMM has a 4KM floater on it...not enough frames for the 1KM view..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[wxman57]

I know wxman57 is a pro met, but was just curious on what it is that he sees that would cause him to make a prediction such as this. Are the models coming in to agreement with this senario?

Ridge over Texas being replaced by deepening upper trof. Nothing to shove any developing storm westward across BoC. Only path would be northward with a hook NE as it interacts with the trof across the Gulf Coast.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS is rolling...117hrs.....holding serve..with NGOM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is rolling...48hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

123 hrs has it nearing the FL Panhandle just west of Apalachicola noon Saturday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is rolling...48hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

123 hrs has it nearing the FL Panhandle just west of Apalachicola noon Saturday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

Another look at 120 hours:

[Dean4Storms]

I see a pretty good circulation near 77W 12.5N moving westward.

mid level....but that will be inland so I dont think this is the feature to form.

RAMM has a 4KM floater on it...not enough frames for the 1KM view..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

It has to be the feature that NHC is looking at with the co-ordinates they have for Recon over the next two days.

[ROCK]

1008MB....looks weak and a rain maker...

[gatorcane]

The GFS is trending a little more eastward each run the past several runs showing a more pronounced NE hook. Something to look out for along the west coast of Florida though I know alot of the talk is Northern Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not about to trust the models this far out with intensity. Lots of warm open water and unless the shear is screaming I can't rule out a hurricane either like wxman57 says.

[ninel conde]

I'm not about to trust the models this far out with intensity. Lots of warm open water and unless the shear is screaming I can't rule out a hurricane either like wxman57 says.

i think the further east it goes the weaker it will be due to shear which will be high. jeff masters might be right about this having sub tropical characteristics as its possible it wont have much of an inner core.

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... rt_us.html

the NAM at 84hrs sends the disturbance into the meat of the Yucatan. BOC if you extrap it out. Probably miss the connection with the trof.

[ROCK]

I'm not about to trust the models this far out with intensity. Lots of warm open water and unless the shear is screaming I can't rule out a hurricane either like wxman57 says.

shear will be screaming if its interacting with a trof.

[cycloneye]

Wow, I don't know if I have ever seen them schedule for something that doesn't even have an invest number.

It seems that they may have an invest up earlier than anticipated if a low pressure persists near those coordinates that the TCPOD have. (12.0N 82.5W)