Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

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Will this system become a tropical cyclone?

Poll ended at Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:28 pm

Yes - on Wednesday
1
1%
Yes - on Thursday
27
26%
Yes - on Friday
41
40%
Yes - on Saturday or later
17
17%
No - it will not develop
17
17%
 
Total votes: 103

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tropicwatch
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#221 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:36 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm thinking development chances better than 50%. Most likely track would be to northern Yucatan on Thursday then northward. Eventual landfall between SE LA and FL Panhandle over the coming weekend. Probably not a large storm, as the favorable environment isn't large. Can't rule out a hurricane.


Great, another weekend shot :cry:
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#222 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:43 am

I know wxman57 is a pro met, but was just curious on what it is that he sees that would cause him to make a prediction such as this. Are the models coming in to agreement with this senario?
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#223 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:46 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121412
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 12 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#224 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:47 am

so they are scheduling RECON over model runs....must be fairly confident something is going to form. ATTM there is nothing down there but a few clouds... :lol:
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#225 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:49 am

Wow, I don't know if I have ever seen them schedule for something that doesn't even have an invest number.
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#226 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:51 am

ROCK wrote:so they are scheduling RECON over model runs....must be fairly confident something is going to form. ATTM there is nothing down there but a few clouds... :lol:


Check the co-ordinance, they're looking at the convection that does appear to have some slight rotation down in the SW Carib. Sea.
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#227 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:55 am

I see a pretty good circulation near 77W 12.5N moving westward.
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Re:

#228 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:59 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I see a pretty good circulation near 77W 12.5N moving westward.



mid level....but that will be inland so I dont think this is the feature to form.

RAMM has a 4KM floater on it...not enough frames for the 1KM view..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#229 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:03 am

sphelps8681 wrote:I know wxman57 is a pro met, but was just curious on what it is that he sees that would cause him to make a prediction such as this. Are the models coming in to agreement with this senario?


Ridge over Texas being replaced by deepening upper trof. Nothing to shove any developing storm westward across BoC. Only path would be northward with a hook NE as it interacts with the trof across the Gulf Coast.
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#230 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:06 am

12Z GFS is rolling...117hrs.....holding serve..with NGOM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#231 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:07 am

ROCK wrote:12Z GFS is rolling...48hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=


123 hrs has it nearing the FL Panhandle just west of Apalachicola noon Saturday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#232 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:08 am

wxman57 wrote:
ROCK wrote:12Z GFS is rolling...48hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=


123 hrs has it nearing the FL Panhandle just west of Apalachicola noon Saturday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html


Another look at 120 hours:

Image
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Re: Re:

#233 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:08 am

ROCK wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I see a pretty good circulation near 77W 12.5N moving westward.



mid level....but that will be inland so I dont think this is the feature to form.

RAMM has a 4KM floater on it...not enough frames for the 1KM view..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp


It has to be the feature that NHC is looking at with the co-ordinates they have for Recon over the next two days.
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#234 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:09 am

1008MB....looks weak and a rain maker...
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#235 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:11 am

The GFS is trending a little more eastward each run the past several runs showing a more pronounced NE hook. Something to look out for along the west coast of Florida though I know alot of the talk is Northern Gulf.
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#236 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:12 am

I'm not about to trust the models this far out with intensity. Lots of warm open water and unless the shear is screaming I can't rule out a hurricane either like wxman57 says.
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Re:

#237 Postby ninel conde » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:17 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I'm not about to trust the models this far out with intensity. Lots of warm open water and unless the shear is screaming I can't rule out a hurricane either like wxman57 says.



i think the further east it goes the weaker it will be due to shear which will be high. jeff masters might be right about this having sub tropical characteristics as its possible it wont have much of an inner core.
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Re: Central Caribbean Disturbance (Gulf Development?) - 20%

#238 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:17 am

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... rt_us.html

the NAM at 84hrs sends the disturbance into the meat of the Yucatan. BOC if you extrap it out. Probably miss the connection with the trof.
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Re:

#239 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:18 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I'm not about to trust the models this far out with intensity. Lots of warm open water and unless the shear is screaming I can't rule out a hurricane either like wxman57 says.



shear will be screaming if its interacting with a trof.
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Re:

#240 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:19 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:Wow, I don't know if I have ever seen them schedule for something that doesn't even have an invest number.


It seems that they may have an invest up earlier than anticipated if a low pressure persists near those coordinates that the TCPOD have. (12.0N 82.5W)
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