ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

any reason why 92L was taking of SSD Floater page?

They have it in the Eastern Pacifi c ....

For some reason is in EPAC section.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[LaBreeze]

Im thinking Landfall anywhere between Lousiana to Navarre Florida. Maybe as a CAT 1 ....who knows...waiting game...

Ok hope thats better!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Are you including the entire Louisiana coast on this or just SE LA?

[wxman57]

Check out the projected 200mb (upper-level) flow associated with the trof Saturday night when this system may be a bit south of SE LA. If this is even close to right then there's no threat to SW Louisiana. And wind shear may increasing rapidly as it nears the Gulf Coast.

200mb winds:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

Shear:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

[ROCK]

Check out the projected 200mb (upper-level) flow associated with the trof Saturday night when this system may be a bit south of SE LA. If this is even close to right then there's no threat to SW Louisiana. And wind shear may increasing rapidly as it nears the Gulf Coast.

200mb winds:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

Shear:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

that is IF it takes the NGOM track....if it takes the southern track into the BOC, steering collapses as indicated by the EURO then all bets are off...the NAM has this crawling thru the BOC for a few days until finally moving..... 0Z GFS ensembles are in the BOC...

[ozonepete]

00Z tropical models in (ignore BAMs). Good concentration toward SE LA/MS/AL. Only the old NGP (NOGAPS) and Canadian take it west. Good sign, as I always worry when my track is close to the NGP. Still looks like no less than light to moderate shear in its path. On the high side of moderate north of 25-26N. Could have an exposed center west of convection at landfall on N. Gulf Coast.

Like your forecast here all the way around, wxman. I'm in lockstep with you on this one.

[ozonepete]

Check out the projected 200mb (upper-level) flow associated with the trof Saturday night when this system may be a bit south of SE LA. If this is even close to right then there's no threat to SW Louisiana. And wind shear may increasing rapidly as it nears the Gulf Coast.

200mb winds:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

Shear:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

that is IF it takes the NGOM track....if it takes the southern track into the BOC, steering collapses as indicated by the EURO then all bets are off...the NAM has this crawling thru the BOC for a few days until finally moving...

Hey Rock, man, why the NAM? That's an old nag that won its last race a long time ago.

[ROCK]

Check out the projected 200mb (upper-level) flow associated with the trof Saturday night when this system may be a bit south of SE LA. If this is even close to right then there's no threat to SW Louisiana. And wind shear may increasing rapidly as it nears the Gulf Coast.

200mb winds:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

Shear:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

that is IF it takes the NGOM track....if it takes the southern track into the BOC, steering collapses as indicated by the EURO then all bets are off...the NAM has this crawling thru the BOC for a few days until finally moving...

Hey Rock, man, why the NAM? That's an old nag that won its last race a long time ago.

its been upgraded this year.....

[gatorcane]

Levi Cowan has posted an update (bold below).

As I showed earlier, the low is west of the blob and shear is impacting the system. It's not organizing that quickly because what we were seeing today was at the mid-levels and the low-level and mid-level center are not vertically stacked.

Posted by Levi at 8:07pm on August 13, 2013

Update 7pm EDT Wednesday:

Invest 92L continues to organize in a gradual fashion today, as expected. However, the system is somewhat decoupled, with the low-level wave axis to the west of the main area of convection and the mid-level vort max. This means that 92L may not be able to develop into a tropical depression prior to running into the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. Either way, the impacts will be the same for central America, with heavy rain and potential flooding being the primary hazards. If 92L doesn’t develop before hitting the Yucatan, it will have another chance on the other side in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the trough to the north will likely string its moisture out towards the north gulf coast, and if the system is unable to consolidate, we may never see it develop significantly. However, it is prudent to wait for 92L to clear the Yucatan before judging how it may behave in the gulf. The forecast philosophy presented in yesterday evening’s post remains essentially unchanged today, so I am leaving the video and forecast graphic below for this evening due to time constraints. Current information, satellite loops, and model tracks for 92L can be found at the storm information page.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Here is a WV image I have marked up showing a pesky ULL in the Central Gulf that is the culprit in inducing SW shear into 92L and helping slow down the organization process.

My guess is that is a reason why models did not spin up something quickly in the NW Caribbean.

You can loop this image to see what I am talking about:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like they just upgraded to TD#5

[Nikki]

Looks like they just upgraded to TD#5

They did, for 93L

[stormhunter7]

looks like this low is close to TD now too? Just needs a deep convection burst. Check out Shortwave IR2 imagery http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like they just upgraded to TD#5

They did, for 93L

Oops-TWC posted message on Twitter saying

Tropical Depression Five: 11 PM ET, 35 mph winds, 1008 mb, moving WNW at 14 mph

And then a link to their 92L page.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is like watching Dorian struggle all over again. Beginning to think this might not become anything more than a sheared depression wherever it makes landfall at.

[MGC]

Cloud tops are warming, shear to pick up tomorrow and land interaction.....92L is in for some hostile conditions tomorrow...we shall see if it is upgraded.....MGC

[ozonepete]

Cloud tops are warming, shear to pick up tomorrow and land interaction.....92L is in for some hostile conditions tomorrow...we shall see if it is upgraded.....MGC

We knew cloud tops would warm during DMIN, right? Now we have to see what DMAX does. My problem is the stretching, which the GFS has forecast all along. If you watch the rgb sat loops (until you go blind; not recommended) you can see the overall circulation is getting stretched from north to south. There is an LLC developing now within that overall stretched circulation, but unless the two consolidate this will never get past TD or very weak TS.

[JonathanBelles]

Update on both TD 5 and 92L: http://jonathanbelles.com/2013/08/14/td ... erin-form/

[CaneCurious]

It's looking kinda sickly tonight. I'm not so sure it is going develop into more than it is right now. It's going to have to fight because today was the day to get its act together. The conditions were all there and it didn't do it.

[CaneCurious]

What time is the first Recon going out tomorrow?

[ROCK]

talk about a non-stacked system.....ugh...it looks ugly...