ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[fci]

Season has been a joy to me so far.
May it continue to be boring with promising Invests poofing out.....

[Dean4Storms]

I'd still watch the SW Gulf and that lower level swirl. All it needs is time and convection IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the Low now near or off the SE Coast of LA came close to becoming a TC had it been under better upper level conditions. Buoy south of Daulphin Island has had strong wind gusts all morning, varying wind directions and quick pressure changes.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[stormreader]

I agree with you Dean. As unlikely as it may seem I wouldn't pronounce the area in the SW Gulf dead just yet. Further north you can see the thunderstorms racing toward the coast of Al Fl (way too fast for tropical development). But further south (where the convection resumed this morning) conditions will probably become more stable, and I think you might very well see development (as you would along the tail end of a typical front in that area).

Just an individual amateur. For all official info check with authorities (National Hurricane Center).

[HouTXmetro]

Area near 95W 23N looks suspect.

[tailgater]

Area near 95W 23N looks suspect.

As the feature on the NGOM coast pulls northward conditions might improve down by the suspect area you posted about. This buoy seems to be almost directly under it or very near and pressures aren't that low but if it does break away from the trough/frontal zone then it will need to watch very closely. it would likely move WNW or NW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Also noticing a low is forming about 20 miles south of Gulfport MS, hope that doesn't add a torando threat, to the flooding problems east of there.

[Portastorm]

I agree with you Dean. As unlikely as it may seem I wouldn't pronounce the area in the SW Gulf dead just yet. Further north you can see the thunderstorms racing toward the coast of Al Fl (way too fast for tropical development). But further south (where the convection resumed this morning) conditions will probably become more stable, and I think you might very well see development (as you would along the tail end of a typical front in that area).

Just an individual amateur. For all official info check with authorities (National Hurricane Center).

Y'all are trying to turn this Star Trek episode into an episode of The Walking Dead!

[Frank P]

Area near 95W 23N looks suspect.

As the feature on the NGOM coast pulls northward conditions might improve down by the suspect area you posted about. This buoy seems to be almost directly under it or very near and pressures aren't that low but if it does break away from the trough/frontal zone then it will need to watch very closely. it would likely move WNW or NW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Also noticing a low is forming about 20 miles south of Gulfport MS, hope that doesn't add a torando threat, to the flooding problems east of there.

Radar has the little low south of Bay St. Louis coming inland ... getting tropical depression like conditions in Biloxi right now... winds out of the ESE to SE from sustained at times 20-25mph with a few gusts to 30mph, tides a couple of feet above normal and copious amounts of rain with another very heavy rain squall approaching...

[Sanibel]

Is that resuscitation I see?

[Frank P]

Video of conditions in Biloxi on the beach...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ju6Uymafoc&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[Dean4Storms]

Area near 95W 23N looks suspect.

As the feature on the NGOM coast pulls northward conditions might improve down by the suspect area you posted about. This buoy seems to be almost directly under it or very near and pressures aren't that low but if it does break away from the trough/frontal zone then it will need to watch very closely. it would likely move WNW or NW.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Also noticing a low is forming about 20 miles south of Gulfport MS, hope that doesn't add a torando threat, to the flooding problems east of there.

Radar has the little low south of Bay St. Louis coming inland ... getting tropical depression like conditions in Biloxi right now... winds out of the ESE to SE from sustained at times 20-25mph with a few gusts to 30mph, tides a couple of feet above normal and copious amounts of rain with another very heavy rain squall approaching...

I think a Depression may have formed Frank P..... check the buoy south of Daulphin Island.... Sustained winds at 33kts and gusts to 39kts.

[HouTXmetro]

Starting to see sustained Deep convection near 94W and 23N. Let's see if it can do something. I also noticed the NHC has dissipated the Frontal boundary just east of the LA/MS border but the trough/wave still extends deep into the BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[Frank P]

Starting to see sustained Deep convection near 94W and 23N. Let's see if it can do something. I also noticed the NHC has dissipated the Frontal boundary just east of the LA/MS border but the trough/wave still extends deep into the BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Getting hit with a really good rain band right now... I have a brass bell on my porch... it takes about 35-40mph wind gusts to make it ring... and it has rung several times in the past few minutes.... amazingly reliable wind gauge I might add.. Can't remember what model said the northern half of 92L would spin up near the LA/MS coast but it sure did... very much tropical depression conditions in Biloxi right now.. tried to go on my porch to video it but it was blowing and raining way to hard...

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like the GFS was right about the winds after all. Doesn't look organized but gusty.

[Hurricaneman]

Im wondering if they will call this a tropical storm in post season analysis

[HouTXmetro]

wow, SW winds 37 gusting to 55 mph off shore. Nasty conditions up there.

[cycloneye]

No mention at 2 PM TWO.

[Portastorm]

Im wondering if they will call this a tropical storm in post season analysis

Highly unlikely.

[Frank P]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kQFAjP8axU&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

This system may not be declared a depression but it is every bit of one weather wise today on the beach in Biloxi... able to shoot this video via a crack in the front when is slacked up a tad, we are still getting pounded with some torrential rains right now from the same cell that has lasted quite some time..

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Just an observation, but is the area in the SW Gulf attempting to cut off? Pay attention to the the sustained convection down there while it's weakening Northeast as you progress towards the LA/MS/AL area. I also see a rapidly approaching Tropical Wave near Central Cuba headed towards the Gulf. Should that area in the SW Gulf Linger could the wave spark something further? Bears Watching. lol