Global model runs discussion

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ozonepete
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5841 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 18, 2013 10:14 pm

Scorpion wrote:I never take the forecast numbers seriously, there's just too many variables we don't even know about. The numbers are mostly meaningless anyway. 2010-12 had very high numbers but seemed insignificant since there were no major threats or landfalls. There is no way that something significant won't develop this year it's just a matter of when.


I agree with your last sentence but didn't quite get the first part. ?? Last year Sandy made landfall as a very damaging cat 3 in Cuba and went on to be the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history; though it was a hybrid, there would have been no damage if there was no hurricane Sandy . And it was unanimously described before landfall, correctly, as a major threat.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5842 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Aug 18, 2013 10:34 pm

As well as you shouldn't scorpion. All it has become over the years is media hype to get ratings and the almighty dollar. Just like how they sensationalize storm footage. "We're reporting from the worst hit areas right now with biblical flooding going on, as leaves and other small debris float down the street in a couple of inches of water and these hurricane force winds are near impossible to stand in although my hat is still on my head and my hair is barely moving :lol:

Anyway that is another stout trough posted on the previous page for labor day. Can't wait to see the next two week outlook.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5843 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 10:36 pm

beoumont wrote:Current GFS run for 500 mb. for Labor Day Weekend.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/9436/7ig.gif


Ugly...looks very similar to last couple seasons.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5844 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 18, 2013 11:52 pm

GFS runs not looking the best for the ATL for next several days.

Late August and nothing here. C'mon.

Image
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5845 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:02 am

00Z GFS fantasy land storms, probably will recurve

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5846 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:04 am

Interesting. Lets see if future runs and if other models show this. I believe the GFS shows it moving off Africa at 240hrs so lets see

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5847 Postby beoumont » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:00 am

SFLcane wrote:
beoumont wrote:Current GFS run for 500 mb. for Labor Day Weekend.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/9436/7ig.gif


Ugly...looks very similar to last couple seasons.


Primo example of why one can't put much faith in 2 week progs. Below is 372 hr (same verifying time as above map) on next run (00z):

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5848 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:55 am

When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5849 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:00 am

Blown Away wrote:When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?


2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5850 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:15 am

I remember that day because my thinking was that it was a good distraction from the nervousness many were feeling because it was also the first anniversary of 9/11...

Frank
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5851 Postby scotto » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:49 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Blown Away wrote:When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?


2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

2008?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5852 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:56 am

scotto wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Blown Away wrote:When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?


2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

2008?


In 2008, Bertha was the first hurricane of the season, in July.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5853 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:59 am

scotto wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Blown Away wrote:When is last time we had to wait until September for the first hurricane?


2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11

2008?


You bringing up 2008 is a joke, right?
If you don't remember that year had 3 hurricanes before September which 2 were major hurricanes, no comparison to this year.
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#5854 Postby Big O » Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:21 am

For all of those on the ledge, don't worry too much about long-range TC genesis on the various global models. Focus instead on the MJO. It is forecasted to move into Phases 8-1-2-3. The last three phases (1-2-3) are hyperactive phases for TC development. Eventually, the models will pick up on this, grasshoppers. :lol: :wink:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5855 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:33 am

It's just too eerily quiet out there right now to the extent where I'm actually afraid of what will happen in September. Just my gut feeling/opinion but I feel that with we could see a couple of landfalls just a few weeks apart...hope I'm wrong.
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#5856 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:55 am

The quiet before the storm?
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#5857 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:19 am

Things will start popping in a couple weeks, cannot see this mjo riding in and things staying like this.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5858 Postby scotto » Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:37 am

2002 ... Gustav, Sep. 11[/quote]
2008?[/quote]

You bringing up 2008 is a joke, right?
If you don't remember that year had 3 hurricanes before September which 2 were major hurricanes, no comparison to this year.[/quote]

I thought Gustav was in 2008
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#5859 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:33 am

2002 sent Isidore and Lili on similar paths through the Caribbean and into the central Gulf coast from late September - early October. Everyone around here remembers Lili for the predicted 135mph winds forecasted for Lafayette just the evening before landfall and then the sudden weakening. Still ended up with a pretty good lashing around here as a cat 1.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5860 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:38 am

The GFS 6Z shows 3 named storms throughout the run. One of them being a hurricane ( Caribbean cruiser ). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=
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