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TheStormExpert wrote:MetroMike wrote:Yes, welcome to the 2013 Atlantic "Invest Season" They will have to be some eventually its the earths way of transporting the heat out of the tropics.
I really don't even know why they call it hurricane season anymore. Shouldn't it be storm season?
cycloneye wrote:Relevant tweet message by NHC director Knabb.
@NHCDirector 1m
In 2001, first Atlantic basin hurricane Sep 9. Totals for year: 9 hurricanes including 4 majors. Just sayin. http://ow.ly/21tMmw
psyclone wrote:I don't believe a busted seasonal forecast is related to complacency. Instead, I believe complacency is directly related to whether or not a particular locale has recently had its clock cleaned by tropical weather. In my area of Tampa bay the population has experienced decades of good luck. Naturally complacency is off the charts. that certainly wouldn't be an issue in Mississippi.
hurricanetrack wrote:No one has yet to explain WHY the Atlantic is so stable. It's not SAL or dust. That is an entirely separate entity and is not the issue as of late. Don't believe me? See for yourself:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time
So I ask - why the stability? What is the cause of it. If anyone can explain that, I think we could all at least wrap our brains around it a little better.
ninel conde wrote:it seems pretty clear now with models showing nothing of importance that the preseason forecasts of high numbers and high landfalls wont verify.
when making a forecast next season i would wait till may 30th and look at 4 factors
a-el nino. if a strong one is occuring then go low.
b--tropical atlantic instability. if the 4 year trend hasnt budged then go low.
c-is the mid level dry air stronger than normal. if yes, go low.
d-is the east coast trof well established? if so forecast few landfalls. this season there have been times when a cane could have gotten close to the coast had they formed.
i think those are the most important factors.
hurricanetrack wrote:No one has yet to explain WHY the Atlantic is so stable. It's not SAL or dust. That is an entirely separate entity and is not the issue as of late. Don't believe me? See for yourself:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time
So I ask - why the stability? What is the cause of it. If anyone can explain that, I think we could all at least wrap our brains around it a little better.
SFLcane wrote:The Atlantic has been dominated by an unusually active and strong TUTT so far this year --something that can not be predicted before a season begins. The series of unusually large upper-level lows has led to increased subsidence and drying, and also increased vertical wind shear -- all of which are detrimental to TC genesis and intensification. The 200 mb temps so far this year have been near or below normal, and that upper-level cooling has kept the THDV values from being even lower. So the atmosphere has been/is cooler and more unstable to dry ascent than in years past, but it is slightly more stable w.r.t to moist ascent. Once the low- to mid-levels moisten up, the atmosphere will quickly become quite unstable, which will support TC-genesis and intensification. However, it appears that those conditions may not arrive until September and October.
beoumont wrote:psyclone wrote:I don't believe a busted seasonal forecast is related to complacency. Instead, I believe complacency is directly related to whether or not a particular locale has recently had its clock cleaned by tropical weather. In my area of Tampa bay the population has experienced decades of good luck. Naturally complacency is off the charts. that certainly wouldn't be an issue in Mississippi.
S. Florida, historically the most hurricane prone area of the USA, did not see a hurricane for a record 27 years, from 1965-1992. Andrew, an obvious Category 4-5 storm comes along, warnings were issued an adequate time in advance, yet something like only 15% of the residents even bothered to board up their windows. This instance is a prime example proving your point.
I shot the photo (video grab) below at the NHC showing Director Bob Sheets clearly warning TV audiences of the impending doom:
http://www.hurricanevideo.citymax.com/i ... sheets.jpg
tolakram wrote:ninel conde wrote:it seems pretty clear now with models showing nothing of importance that the preseason forecasts of high numbers and high landfalls wont verify.
when making a forecast next season i would wait till may 30th and look at 4 factors
a-el nino. if a strong one is occuring then go low.
b--tropical atlantic instability. if the 4 year trend hasnt budged then go low.
c-is the mid level dry air stronger than normal. if yes, go low.
d-is the east coast trof well established? if so forecast few landfalls. this season there have been times when a cane could have gotten close to the coast had they formed.
i think those are the most important factors.
This all assumes that this season WILL be slow and that somehow you know better than the pro's that these are the key indicators. Do you really think the multiple agencies who forecast the season somehow missed these obvious indicators? They all updated their forecasts recently, and none abandoned the idea of an active season.
If tropical instability suddenly rises next week, then what? Why is it low, what will cause it to rise? Is it directly responsible for the lack of storms this year?
I can't answer any of those questions.
SFLcane wrote:The Atlantic has been dominated by an unusually active and strong TUTT so far this year --something that can not be predicted before a season begins. The series of unusually large upper-level lows has led to increased subsidence and drying, and also increased vertical wind shear -- all of which are detrimental to TC genesis and intensification. The 200 mb temps so far this year have been near or below normal, and that upper-level cooling has kept the THDV values from being even lower. So the atmosphere has been/is cooler and more unstable to dry ascent than in years past, but it is slightly more stable w.r.t to moist ascent. Once the low- to mid-levels moisten up, the atmosphere will quickly become quite unstable, which will support TC-genesis and intensification. However, it appears that those conditions may not arrive until September and October.
ninel conde wrote:the tropical instability has been a multi-year pattern so i doubt it will change drastically in a week, though i hope it would.
'CaneFreak wrote:1. Tropical instability is not a pattern.
2. Do you have any sound data to back up this claim? Multiyear pattern over which time periods?
3. Things CAN, DO, and WILL change DRASTICALLY in short periods of time in the tropical Atlantic. They always have and they always will.
Models aren't perfect - even within a week. We still do not understand tropical cyclogenesis all that well and thus the reason that models don't perform that well with it. That's why we have projects like PREDICT. We also have a limited amount of good upper air data over the oceans and that will always be a problem when you are talking about a large body of water. Upper air data is critical to weather analysis and forecasting.ninel conde wrote:the tropical instability has been a multi-year pattern so i doubt it will change drastically in a week, though i hope it would.
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