Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Bocadude85]

of course, a direct hit of a small cat 5 would be awful

However, the odds are quite small that it would make the direct hit

as for the season... the large scale pattern simply is not favorable this year. Given what I am seeing in the GFS, I am starting to wonder if we will even get to 15 storms this year

not close to 15. every day that goes by the gfs pushes back by one day any development. right now im starting to wonder if any canes develop. GFS shows a few lows out to 384 this morning but no canes out to sept 9. rather amazing. MJO, if it really does materialize, might be able to negate the dry air enough for a burst of 2 or 3 storms in sept. im confident the season ends early as the nw flow over the east coast will limit any development in the gom/carib.

Have you looked at the 6z GFS today? It shows a system developing in the next 5 days. How do you know that this system will not become a hurricane?

[ROCK]

if you are wondering about sun spots you can track them with an iphone app. SOHO has some great photos in real time. Last I checked there were 8 spots facing us but rather weak. I dont think sun spots have anything to do with TC genesis.

the GFS now showing development in the med range...yes JB is correct...it is about to pop.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this season is about to go into overdrive from August 29th on based on the models

[SouthFloridian92]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

Could sunspots (or the lack thereof) be partly responsible for this lack of activity?

I've read that a lower number of sunspots can be corresponded with stronger hurricanes. Sunspot cycle 24 has actually been the weakest in 100 years and if the current trend keeps up, there may not even be a 25th cycle.

[Ntxw]

I've read that a lower number of sunspots can be corresponded with stronger hurricanes. Sunspot cycle 24 has actually been the weakest in 100 years and if the current trend keeps up, there may not even be a 25th cycle.

I think there is little understood correlation. If this was true then sunspot cycle 23 (1995-2008) should've had less hurricane activity than 24 (2008-present) but it's been the opposite.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone know what the record is for the lowest amount of total storms during a hurricane season is?

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone know what the record is for the lowest amount of total storms during a hurricane season is?

1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlan ... ane_season

The 1914 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active Atlantic hurricane season on record, with only one known tropical storm.

[hurricaneCW]

Does anyone know what the record is for the lowest amount of total storms during a hurricane season is?

We already have more than the lowest amount of storms in a hurricane season. There might have been seasons with only one storm but that was before the satellite era in 1914.

[vbhoutex]

Can anyone who posted a number above back up their post with verifiable data? I am not doubting anyone, but when a question such as this is asked it is good if the answer can be verified. I don't think anyone would want to put out false information, especially accidentally.

[Hammy]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1914.html

as per official NOAA tracking map.

as far as season activity 95L, the first invest in weeks (and probably the best organized system we've seen in even longer) is likely an indication that, albeit somewhat slowly, favorable conditions are spreading back into the Atlantic basin.

[ninel conde]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1914.html

as per official NOAA tracking map.

as far as season activity 95L, the first invest in weeks (and probably the best organized system we've seen in even longer) is likely an indication that, albeit somewhat slowly, favorable conditions are spreading back into the Atlantic basin.

models arent indicating that favorable conditions will be in place through at least sept 09. greg postel on TWC said next weekend things might get more favorable but ive been hearing that for awhile now. we are in the peak now and for the next 16 days not a single model is forecasting a hurricane anywhere in the atlantic basin.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1914.html

as per official NOAA tracking map.

as far as season activity 95L, the first invest in weeks (and probably the best organized system we've seen in even longer) is likely an indication that, albeit somewhat slowly, favorable conditions are spreading back into the Atlantic basin.

models arent indicating that favorable conditions will be in place through at least sept 09. greg postel on TWC said next weekend things might get more favorable but ive been hearing that for awhile now. we are in the peak now and for the next 16 days not a single model is forecasting a hurricane anywhere in the atlantic basin.

Yea, I'm thinking that maybe in the middle of September(about 3 weeks) we might start to see some development......It's so strange to see this message board so dead going into the end of August.....

[ninel conde]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1914.html

as per official NOAA tracking map.

as far as season activity 95L, the first invest in weeks (and probably the best organized system we've seen in even longer) is likely an indication that, albeit somewhat slowly, favorable conditions are spreading back into the Atlantic basin.

models arent indicating that favorable conditions will be in place through at least sept 09. greg postel on TWC said next weekend things might get more favorable but ive been hearing that for awhile now. we are in the peak now and for the next 16 days not a single model is forecasting a hurricane anywhere in the atlantic basin.

Yea, I'm thinking that maybe in the middle of September(about 3 weeks) we might start to see some development......It's so strange to see this message board so dead going into the end of August.....

it seems pretty clear to me that the models dont think the MJO will be able to overcome the deep layer of dry air engulfing the atlantic. plus, istability is stuck far below normal.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

maybe im seeing things but the mid level dry air is more wide spread than ever. that next nice looking wave will run into a huge dry air surge.

[Alyono]

the 1914 numbers are suspect

We knew about canes back then from ships. However, wasnt WW1 going on then with unrestricted sub warfare?

[Hammy]

maybe im seeing things but the mid level dry air is more wide spread than ever. that next nice looking wave will run into a huge dry air surge.

You are seeing things, the dry air was far more widespread about 2-3 weeks ago, covering literally the entire MDR as well as sending dust into Texas and Florida across the Atlantic.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GOE-12/WV/2013-08-10-15

In addition to that, the dry air over Africa is also shrinking and the waves are becoming more convectively active over the last week, and the time frame for development in the models continues to creep closer with each run.

the 1914 numbers are suspect

in that case the lowest during satellite era was 1983, with four storms.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

time to spread a little cheer from mr bastardi.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10m

ecmwf ensembles showing 3-5 mb pressure falls in sw atlantic basin means in 11-15 day period. Cap about to come off hurricane season

And there goes some more just wait two more weeks talk

And ninel I must disagree with you this time about the models showing no hurricanes. Well I guess you're actually right on a technicality, but if a model is showing a storm out there in say 8-10 days there is no way on gods green earth that it will have the intensity correct. It could just as easily strengthen into a hurricane or be a 45 mph weak, short lived three day storm like all the others. What I'm saying is don't go by what the models show. Their chances of being correct are about as good as mine winning the next powerball.

[CrazyC83]

It's somewhat favorable in the Gulf and Caribbean overall now based on the MJO, but certainly not the MDR. It will take at least 1-2 weeks for that to reach out there.

[cycloneye]

Here is a very detailed discussion about the waves that the San Juan NWS did on Saturday afternoon. The last paragraph refers to pouch 25L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST SAT AUG 24 2013

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION ATTM ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND IS NOT BEING ANALYZED OR
MENTIONED ON THE TAFB TROP WX DCSN (TWDAT). MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE OVER PR
WITH THE ECMWF BEING ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER (12Z MON) THAN THE SLOWER
GFS/GFES (00Z TUE). GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE. NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WAVE AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY SIG AMOUNTS OF 850 MB VORTICITY AS
SEEN ON GFS FIELDS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
MONDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TUE BEHIND THIS
WAVE. NON-EVENTFUL WED-THU IN BETWEEN WAVES.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W AND IS MUCH BETTER DEFINED ON
TPW AND LPW IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT FRI.

A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN AFRICA AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING THIS WAVE EVENTUALLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
DY5-7 TIME FRAME (THU AUG 29-SAT AUG 31) ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. BASED ON OFFICIAL NHC/WPC MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WAVE MAY HAVE A LOW PRES AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT OR MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT FRI AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N AND 47W NEXT SAT AUG 31.

[CrazyC83]

I think we might see 1 or 2 named storms before the month is out, but probably not from Cape Verde. I'd watch ex-94L as it moves westward too...

[TheStormExpert]

I think we might see 1 or 2 named storms before the month is out, but probably not from Cape Verde. I'd watch ex-94L as it moves westward too...

95L has a quick shot possibly of developing and then there could be that TW coming off of Africa as mentioned by the San Juan NWS. So 1 to maybe 2 more storms this month are possible but not likely knowing its already August 24th and conditions are still overall more unfavorable than favorable.