ninel conde wrote:Alyono wrote:of course, a direct hit of a small cat 5 would be awful
However, the odds are quite small that it would make the direct hit
as for the season... the large scale pattern simply is not favorable this year. Given what I am seeing in the GFS, I am starting to wonder if we will even get to 15 storms this year
not close to 15. every day that goes by the gfs pushes back by one day any development. right now im starting to wonder if any canes develop. GFS shows a few lows out to 384 this morning but no canes out to sept 9. rather amazing. MJO, if it really does materialize, might be able to negate the dry air enough for a burst of 2 or 3 storms in sept. im confident the season ends early as the nw flow over the east coast will limit any development in the gom/carib.
Have you looked at the 6z GFS today? It shows a system developing in the next 5 days. How do you know that this system will not become a hurricane?