Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

12Z GFS run has the second wave developing again.

Now showing a 999MB storm over Cape Verde in 132 hours (5.5 days).



So there's at least an outside possibility we get another named storm August 31st. Maybe.

[Portastorm]

Agreed the MDR is still quite stable and unfavorable. But as we saw with Fernand, things can blow up quickly farther west. The W Gulf and W Caribbean are highly favorable right now as the MJO creeps in.

this is where i disagree vociferously. yes the MDR is dried up and most likely the MJO wont ever get into the atlantic. where i disagree is the w gulf and w carib being favorable. the BOC is favorable but otherwise the nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic and the persistent east coast trough is going to make things very difficult in the carib and gom north of 25n. for in close development of anything significant you need a strong STATIONARY high over new england. there is now talk of a subtropical storm forming later in the week at 38n 70w. that is not a sign of an active season south of there. at some points the models were showing that the texas ridge would break down. it really hasnt. look at this past weekend. we had a strong disturbance moving west toward texas, a tropical storm south of texas, and we had ivo in the pacific sending moisture into the southwest, but today texas is almost completely dry. if the ridge were to break down and the nw flow end over the east coast then the models would light up.

It's a real stretch IMO to say "but today texas is almost completely dry." The bottom third of the state is saturated with upper level moisture and numerous showers/storms.

[Bocadude85]

Agreed the MDR is still quite stable and unfavorable. But as we saw with Fernand, things can blow up quickly farther west. The W Gulf and W Caribbean are highly favorable right now as the MJO creeps in.

this is where i disagree vociferously. yes the MDR is dried up and most likely the MJO wont ever get into the atlantic. where i disagree is the w gulf and w carib being favorable. the BOC is favorable but otherwise the nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic and the persistent east coast trough is going to make things very difficult in the carib and gom north of 25n. for in close development of anything significant you need a strong STATIONARY high over new england. there is now talk of a subtropical storm forming later in the week at 38n 70w. that is not a sign of an active season south of there. at some points the models were showing that the texas ridge would break down. it really hasnt. look at this past weekend. we had a strong disturbance moving west toward texas, a tropical storm south of texas, and we had ivo in the pacific sending moisture into the southwest, but today texas is almost completely dry. if the ridge were to break down and the nw flow end over the east coast then the models would light up.

Im really starting to wonder if you have any idea what your talking about? You make all these statements with nothing to back them up with. What signs are there that the MJO will not make it into the atlantic? How does a subtropical storm developing make a season inactive?

[tolakram]

12z GFS, 384 hours. This is pure fantasy, for entertainment only at this point.



Closer to now, I'm wondering if the vorticity shown in this loop and moving south of PR is Pouch 25L or something else?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082612&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Start at 33 hours and follow the enhance vorticity in the southern MDR and what appears to be pouch 25L approaching from the east.

[gatorcane]

Well Mark not sure what the GFS is doing but we can make a good guess on why it has become less bullish on any Cape Verde development this week by taking a look at the IR image off Africa to find 25L has nearly disintegrated and has succumbed to the dry stable air that plagues the MDR and that the ITCZ is not active. Nothing to see that could roll off Africa either at least for the next few days with little convection over Africa.



Is it late August or late June out there?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I still think this season will be a bust. Many expect a strong late season surge, i think we will have some storms and hurricanes, but this season will remain well below normal i believe

[tolakram]

12Z Euro now develops the same wave the GFS does at 120 hours. Showing solid vorticity and low pressure area right on top of Cape Verde.



at 144 hours it's showing circles around both this and a wave approaching the islands.



at 192 hours the vorticity (from the pay site) is well defined just east of the northern islands while the storm above goes poof.

Free image from http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013082612&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

['CaneFreak]

While I think the 12Z CMC is overdoing the intensification of this leading tropical wave, I think it has the right idea overall. As previously discussed this morning, I see very good environmental conditions overall west of 50 W in the coming days and that lines up very well with what the CMC shows this afternoon. It blossoms the leading wave right around 50 W and makes it a hurricane around day 5/day 6 several hundred miles east of the Leeward and Windward Islands.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html

Strongly agree. This is going to wreak havoc on weather weenies who want a TC to track in the modeling because typically models have a hard time resolving weak tropical waves. And as you well know, any errors in initialization often get carried over into the rest of the model forecast. So, if everyone will be PATIENT, we might have something to track in a week to 10 days.

Looked at some velocity potentials this morning

The East Atlantic may NOT be favorable through the next 16 days.

However, what does look favorable are areas west of 50W. Could see waves not developing until they near the islands of the eastern Caribbean or within the Caribbean itself

['CaneFreak]

Add the NAVGEM to the list - see hour 180

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NGPTROPATL_12z/nogapsloop.html#picture

While I think the 12Z CMC is overdoing the intensification of this leading tropical wave, I think it has the right idea overall. As previously discussed this morning, I see very good environmental conditions overall west of 50 W in the coming days and that lines up very well with what the CMC shows this afternoon. It blossoms the leading wave right around 50 W and makes it a hurricane around day 5/day 6 several hundred miles east of the Leeward and Windward Islands.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html

[tolakram]

In addition, the euro is now hinting at some mischief in the northern Gulf again, way out at 240 hours.

Euro 12Z vorticity http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

[chaser1]

Okay, just curious here.......what was the name of that "new" model (well, new to many of us here anyway) that had been referenced earlier in the season - I think from Brazil; Anyone happen to know what "it's" crystall ball was indicating for its Atlantic basin mid-term forecast (I seem to remember that it might have been even more geared towards a long term forecast rather than short term)??

[Cyclenall]

Im really starting to wonder if you have any idea what your talking about? You make all these statements with nothing to back them up with. What signs are there that the MJO will not make it into the atlantic? How does a subtropical storm developing make a season inactive?

That's correct, I haven't heard of the MJO "skipping" a basin randomly and especially without any evidence.

12z GFS, 384 hours. This is pure fantasy, for entertainment only at this point.

It better be pure fantasy, what is depicted there looks pathetic for Sept.11. A CAT1 hurricane alone in the central Atlantic 1 day after climatological peak...that after waiting 3 years for something? I don't really have anything to say about that except I can't be shocked if it verifies. If I saw it back in May, my jaw would have to have its own personal lift to keep it up.

Is it late August or late June out there?

That's another point I wanted to make, funny back in late June we were all saying is it June or late August and now its the reverse .

I still think this season will be a bust. Many expect a strong late season surge, i think we will have some storms and hurricanes, but this season will remain well below normal i believe

If there are no hurricanes or even major hurricanes by Sept.15 than I will give up and be on your side of the statement.

[ninel conde]

Agreed the MDR is still quite stable and unfavorable. But as we saw with Fernand, things can blow up quickly farther west. The W Gulf and W Caribbean are highly favorable right now as the MJO creeps in.

this is where i disagree vociferously. yes the MDR is dried up and most likely the MJO wont ever get into the atlantic. where i disagree is the w gulf and w carib being favorable. the BOC is favorable but otherwise the nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic and the persistent east coast trough is going to make things very difficult in the carib and gom north of 25n. for in close development of anything significant you need a strong STATIONARY high over new england. there is now talk of a subtropical storm forming later in the week at 38n 70w. that is not a sign of an active season south of there. at some points the models were showing that the texas ridge would break down. it really hasnt. look at this past weekend. we had a strong disturbance moving west toward texas, a tropical storm south of texas, and we had ivo in the pacific sending moisture into the southwest, but today texas is almost completely dry. if the ridge were to break down and the nw flow end over the east coast then the models would light up.

Im really starting to wonder if you have any idea what your talking about? You make all these statements with nothing to back them up with. What signs are there that the MJO will not make it into the atlantic? How does a subtropical storm developing make a season inactive?

i read what alyono said about the upward velociteies not making it to the atlantic for the next 16 days. anytime you have subtropical development north of 30, thats not a good sign for the MDR.

[ninel conde]

I still think this season will be a bust. Many expect a strong late season surge, i think we will have some storms and hurricanes, but this season will remain well below normal i believe

I concur.

[gatorcane]

The FIM is "hearing crickets" in the 12Z run. Here is how it ends with no significant development across the Atlantic basin through 336 hours though it does flirt with development with Pouch 25L in the less than 168 hour timeframe (not shown in image below).

[Portastorm]

i read what alyono said about the upward velociteies not making it to the atlantic for the next 16 days. anytime you have subtropical development north of 30, thats not a good sign for the MDR.

If you're going to quote someone on here, especially a pro met, please make sure it is accurate. In this case, you are not accurate. Alyono said upward velocities appear much better west of 50W and that the East Atlantic didn't look promising.

This is what he wrote:

Looked at some velocity potentials this morning

The East Atlantic may NOT be favorable through the next 16 days.

However, what does look favorable are areas west of 50W. Could see waves not developing until they near the islands of the eastern Caribbean or within the Caribbean itself

['CaneFreak]

Read more, post less. For clarification, subtropical development north of 30 has NOTHING to do with the MDR.

Upward velocities look good WEST of 50 W. Most models are even showing some tropical waves surviving past 50 West which is a noticeable change from what we have seen.

i read what alyono said about the upward velociteies not making it to the atlantic for the next 16 days. anytime you have subtropical development north of 30, thats not a good sign for the MDR.

[Hammy]

I'm increasingly wondering if the second half of this year could be similar to 2005 (not number wise), given what the models seem to be showing as of late, in that most storms develop outside of the MDR. out of 28 storms only two were named E of 60/S of 20.

edit: as I posted that I notice the GFS is now showing 989mb near Cape Verde in <120 hours.

[ninel conde]

The FIM is "hearing crickets" in the 12Z run. Here is how it ends with no significant development across the Atlantic basin through 336 hours though it does flirt with development with Pouch 25L in the less than 168 hour timeframe (not shown in image below).

FIM has been the most bullish model this season. should we go to sept 09 at 6/0/0 and with jeff masters saying the sinking air might come back after sept 15 this could be the slowest season since 1995. i think 1997 was 8/3/1. very possible we could have fewer canes and majors this season.

[gatorcane]

This is the most bullish I have seen the GFS the past several runs showing a monster developing close to Africa and development starts in the 3-4 day timeframe. Here we are at 6 days.

Though my guess is that it won't get alot of attention as it looks like a strong fish candidate developing that far east: