Now showing a 999MB storm over Cape Verde in 132 hours (5.5 days).

So there's at least an outside possibility we get another named storm August 31st. Maybe.

Moderator: S2k Moderators
ninel conde wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed the MDR is still quite stable and unfavorable. But as we saw with Fernand, things can blow up quickly farther west. The W Gulf and W Caribbean are highly favorable right now as the MJO creeps in.
this is where i disagree vociferously. yes the MDR is dried up and most likely the MJO wont ever get into the atlantic. where i disagree is the w gulf and w carib being favorable. the BOC is favorable but otherwise the nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic and the persistent east coast trough is going to make things very difficult in the carib and gom north of 25n. for in close development of anything significant you need a strong STATIONARY high over new england. there is now talk of a subtropical storm forming later in the week at 38n 70w. that is not a sign of an active season south of there. at some points the models were showing that the texas ridge would break down. it really hasnt. look at this past weekend. we had a strong disturbance moving west toward texas, a tropical storm south of texas, and we had ivo in the pacific sending moisture into the southwest, but today texas is almost completely dry. if the ridge were to break down and the nw flow end over the east coast then the models would light up.
ninel conde wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed the MDR is still quite stable and unfavorable. But as we saw with Fernand, things can blow up quickly farther west. The W Gulf and W Caribbean are highly favorable right now as the MJO creeps in.
this is where i disagree vociferously. yes the MDR is dried up and most likely the MJO wont ever get into the atlantic. where i disagree is the w gulf and w carib being favorable. the BOC is favorable but otherwise the nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic and the persistent east coast trough is going to make things very difficult in the carib and gom north of 25n. for in close development of anything significant you need a strong STATIONARY high over new england. there is now talk of a subtropical storm forming later in the week at 38n 70w. that is not a sign of an active season south of there. at some points the models were showing that the texas ridge would break down. it really hasnt. look at this past weekend. we had a strong disturbance moving west toward texas, a tropical storm south of texas, and we had ivo in the pacific sending moisture into the southwest, but today texas is almost completely dry. if the ridge were to break down and the nw flow end over the east coast then the models would light up.
CaneFreak wrote:Strongly agree. This is going to wreak havoc on weather weenies who want a TC to track in the modeling because typically models have a hard time resolving weak tropical waves. And as you well know, any errors in initialization often get carried over into the rest of the model forecast. So, if everyone will be PATIENT, we might have something to track in a week to 10 days.Alyono wrote:Looked at some velocity potentials this morning
The East Atlantic may NOT be favorable through the next 16 days.
However, what does look favorable are areas west of 50W. Could see waves not developing until they near the islands of the eastern Caribbean or within the Caribbean itself
'CaneFreak wrote:While I think the 12Z CMC is overdoing the intensification of this leading tropical wave, I think it has the right idea overall. As previously discussed this morning, I see very good environmental conditions overall west of 50 W in the coming days and that lines up very well with what the CMC shows this afternoon. It blossoms the leading wave right around 50 W and makes it a hurricane around day 5/day 6 several hundred miles east of the Leeward and Windward Islands.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html
Bocadude85 wrote:Im really starting to wonder if you have any idea what your talking about? You make all these statements with nothing to back them up with. What signs are there that the MJO will not make it into the atlantic? How does a subtropical storm developing make a season inactive?
tolakram wrote:12z GFS, 384 hours. This is pure fantasy, for entertainment only at this point.
gatorcane wrote:Is it late August or late June out there?
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I still think this season will be a bust. Many expect a strong late season surge, i think we will have some storms and hurricanes, but this season will remain well below normal i believe
Bocadude85 wrote:ninel conde wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed the MDR is still quite stable and unfavorable. But as we saw with Fernand, things can blow up quickly farther west. The W Gulf and W Caribbean are highly favorable right now as the MJO creeps in.
this is where i disagree vociferously. yes the MDR is dried up and most likely the MJO wont ever get into the atlantic. where i disagree is the w gulf and w carib being favorable. the BOC is favorable but otherwise the nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic and the persistent east coast trough is going to make things very difficult in the carib and gom north of 25n. for in close development of anything significant you need a strong STATIONARY high over new england. there is now talk of a subtropical storm forming later in the week at 38n 70w. that is not a sign of an active season south of there. at some points the models were showing that the texas ridge would break down. it really hasnt. look at this past weekend. we had a strong disturbance moving west toward texas, a tropical storm south of texas, and we had ivo in the pacific sending moisture into the southwest, but today texas is almost completely dry. if the ridge were to break down and the nw flow end over the east coast then the models would light up.
Im really starting to wonder if you have any idea what your talking about? You make all these statements with nothing to back them up with. What signs are there that the MJO will not make it into the atlantic? How does a subtropical storm developing make a season inactive?
ninel conde wrote:i read what alyono said about the upward velociteies not making it to the atlantic for the next 16 days. anytime you have subtropical development north of 30, thats not a good sign for the MDR.
Alyono wrote:Looked at some velocity potentials this morning
The East Atlantic may NOT be favorable through the next 16 days.
However, what does look favorable are areas west of 50W. Could see waves not developing until they near the islands of the eastern Caribbean or within the Caribbean itself
ninel conde wrote:i read what alyono said about the upward velociteies not making it to the atlantic for the next 16 days. anytime you have subtropical development north of 30, thats not a good sign for the MDR.
gatorcane wrote:The FIM is "hearing crickets" in the 12Z run. Here is how it ends with no significant development across the Atlantic basin through 336 hours though it does flirt with development with Pouch 25L in the less than 168 hour timeframe (not shown in image below).
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest