Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

[wxman57]

Wind shear certainly doesn't look that light if you look at a WV loop or the GFS projection of shear for 21Z today - 35-45 kts. Of course, right in the center of an upper level low the shear isn't going to be high.

[AJC3]

Wind shear certainly doesn't look that light if you look at a WV loop or the GFS projection of shear for 21Z today - 35-45 kts. Of course, right in the center of an upper level low the shear isn't going to be high.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_4.png

And moreover, in BE (baroclincally enhanced) cases such as this, strong divergence which has been fueling the convection comes in tandem with relatively high shear, so you really can't have one without the other, to some degree.

More often than not (in my experience, anyway) it's not the ULL in and of itself that "drills down" to the surface, but the lowering of pressures on the divergent E-SE quads that lead to surface low development.

[otowntiger]

Sort of a surprise this blossomed.. Weather was expected to be dry today with low cloud cover.

well I don't know if I'd say this has "blossomed" by any means. Seems that since the pressures are high and NHC is saying just 10% seems like its only in the very very early bud stages. And a lot of buds have dried up and dropped off the tree way before they bloomed. we shall see.

[ROCK]

Thanks for explaining Wxmn57....I
Learned something new today....

[USTropics]

It has pretty good vorticity at 700mb level, but lacking at the surface:


Last 10 saved visible images as an animated .gif:

[tropicwatch]

Usual afternoon pressure drops and convection is waning. Still bears watching over the next couple of days.

[Stormcenter]

Where does the flow takes this the next few days?

[USTropics]

Where does the flow takes this the next few days?

Current steering pattern for a weak system is towards the west.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Where does the flow takes this the next few days?

Current steering pattern for a weak system is towards the west.

NHC has it drifting northward.

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

[ROCK]

yep the door is open to the north between the 2 highs....

[USTropics]

The last ECMWF run developed something in the northern GOM and shot it west towards Texas in the next 72 hours. I wonder if this will help enhance that.

[fci]

I'm late to this party but the radar presentation this morning was pretty startling off of the Middle Keys.
It seems this season that radar and satellite can be so deceiving. I think it was Dorian that looked like a million bucks but was worth about a dime.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm late to this party but the radar presentation this morning was pretty startling off of the Middle Keys.
It seems this season that radar and satellite can be so deceiving. I think it was Dorian that looked like a million bucks but was worth about a dime.

There is mid level circ anywhere from about 700mb and up. nothing at the surface and typically a surface low will form on the divergent ( as AJC3 also mentioned) side where the convection is able to form and maintain long enough. if that were to happen then the upper low pulls away or weakens then we might get something to watch. right now not likely the convection in these types of situations does not last long. however this time a year everything needs to be watched.

Close up view
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/eyw/mflash-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

IF you take a look at the RGB
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/eyw/mflash-rgb.html

you can clearly see the lower ( 700mb yellow) circ in the yellow then the milky white of the mid level (500mb red circle) then the obvious upper lvl ( 300+ mb black circle) low all rotation and not vertically stacked either. the lower lvl is the farthest and upper level farthest west.

[tropicwatch]

Cool synopsis Aric, thanks.

[Sanibel]

If it was going to drill down this is what you would want to see.

[cycloneye]

No change in the %.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH OVER THIS AREA...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

850 vort increasing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

all levels have vort now....wind shear is low all around it....convection firing right in the COC....to be honest it looks like it is trying to get to the surface.....

Key west radar...you tell me

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Hurricane Alexis]

850 vort increasing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

all levels have vort now....wind shear is low all around it....convection firing right in the COC....to be honest it looks like it is trying to get to the surface.....

Yea, I've been monitoring it too. Let's see how it behaves during DMAX.

[ROCK]

pressures are high though looking at the buoys