Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

FIM model continues to show development as it reaches the NE Caribbean.
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocal ... 44&adtfn=1

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

Moving pretty quickly. Perhaps that maybe inhibiting development.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, for the last time of the day , could we have ( if possible ) the latest sat pic for Pouch 25 L? As this feature progresses westward, many of our members want to have a better idea of this twave's appearence...

Thanks .

[gatorcane]

Check out the 18Z FIM at 168 hours

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N33W MOVING W [b]NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.[/b]

Moving pretty quickly. Perhaps that maybe inhibiting development.

Which means more west and that almost assures plenty of rain for the Eastern Caribbean islands unless it does like the Euro that goes NW missing the islands.

[gatorcane]

Hey Cycloneye, could we have the latest pic related to Pouch 25L to have a better idea of this feature? Thanks

Here is another look. Convection looking better this morning:

Thanks Gatorcane, that's a very nice one too. We have a better idea of Pouch 25L. Agree that convection is in better shape, if this trend continues during the next 24h, do you think that we could have an Invest from that before Friday? What are your thoughts?

Hi Gustywind, I think we have an invest before Friday and this system is "a go" for development. Leewards should be paying attention.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

Moving pretty quickly. Perhaps that maybe inhibiting development.

Perhaps, we will see, but that's a very nice observation Abajan:) . Whereas, compared to TS Chantal, 25L is not racing . Chantal was often speeding at 46km/h . IMO, this criteria should not be denied in 25L future. Interesting days ahead to Watch it. For now, let's wait and see.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N33W MOVING W [b]NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.[/b]

Moving pretty quickly. Perhaps that maybe inhibiting development.

Which means more west and that almost assures plenty of rain for the Eastern Caribbean islands unless it does like the Euro that goes NW missing the islands.

Good point, nice analysis Cycloneye . And should i add that in Guadeloupe, Martinica... Monday teachers back to school after 2 months in holidays as the pupils (Tuesday). That could pose some serious troubles on the roads, etc. if measures are not quickly anticipated.
Hopefully, we're far away from that but we should keep an eye on this feature.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I feel slightly more confident this may become an EC or NE GOM storm. Also, cycloneye could you post a GIF of our TWAVE. Thank you

[ozonepete]

one issue may be that the greatest vorticity may be well north of the convection. This may be why the models are only indicating slow and limited development with the system.

It's a disorganized mess right now and even if it becomes a TC, chances are it will remain a disorganized mess

i pointed that out a few days ago when i observed that the part of the wave that might develop was devoid of clouds at the time. the part of the wave thats going to develop, if it does, is up at 16.5-17n.

That part of the wave may not develop at all. It is completely up in the air what part of the wave develops - the part that develops depends on where the most vorticity and instability is. Since the vorticity appears to be dropping southward below 15N towards where the strongest convection now appears to be developing it is very possible that the center could form below 15 degrees. Remember that an MLC is the first stage of development in most cases, especially for Cape Verde systems, and the MLC forms where the heaviest convection clusters. Any nearby vorticity can fizzle pretty quickly when the main thunderstorm cluster starts organizing around its own center.

[Gustywind]

Hi Gatorcane, thanks for this answer, i appreciate sincerely your daily analysis. It's a pleasure to read and understand them . So the "Invest option" could be in store durin the next 24h-36h... I will monitor it in case of.

[floridasun78]

i like see were fim take it next run after pass islands

[ozonepete]

Which means more west and that almost assures plenty of rain for the Eastern Caribbean islands unless it does like the Euro that goes NW missing the islands.

Good point, nice analysis Cycloneye . And should i add that in Guadeloupe, Martinica... Monday teachers back to school after 2 months in holidays as the pupils (Tuesday). That could pose some serious troubles on the roads, etc. if measures are not quickly anticipated.
Hopefully, we're far away from that but we should keep an eye on this feature.

I definitely would watch, Gusty. Looks to be developing further south. And looks pretty healthy and growing fast.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved image. No shading from NHC at 8pm EST outlook? Interesting...

[cycloneye]

Latest. Looking really good from a moisture/convection perspective:

http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y47 ... 138ea5.jpg

Is a matter of time that is tagged as Invest 96L.

[Gustywind]

one issue may be that the greatest vorticity may be well north of the convection. This may be why the models are only indicating slow and limited development with the system.

It's a disorganized mess right now and even if it becomes a TC, chances are it will remain a disorganized mess

i pointed that out a few days ago when i observed that the part of the wave that might develop was devoid of clouds at the time. the part of the wave thats going to develop, if it does, is up at 16.5-17n.

That part of the wave may not develop at all. It is completely up in the air what part of the wave develops - the part that develops depends on where the most vorticity and instability is. Since the vorticity appears to be dropping southward below 15N towards where the strongest convection now appears to be developing it is very possible that the center could form below 15 degrees. Remember that an MLC is the first stage of development in most cases, especially for Cape Verde systems, and the MLC forms where the heaviest convection clusters. Any nearby vorticity can fizzle pretty quickly when the main thunderstorm cluster starts organizing around its own center.

Glad to see you back on this topic Ozonepete . As many of this board, i appreciate your bright analysis . What are your latest thoughts on 25 L?

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NAVGEM sends this south of PR and heading into Jam.....lots of isobars

[ninel conde]

one issue may be that the greatest vorticity may be well north of the convection. This may be why the models are only indicating slow and limited development with the system.

It's a disorganized mess right now and even if it becomes a TC, chances are it will remain a disorganized mess

i pointed that out a few days ago when i observed that the part of the wave that might develop was devoid of clouds at the time. the part of the wave thats going to develop, if it does, is up at 16.5-17n.

That part of the wave may not develop at all. It is completely up in the air what part of the wave develops - the part that develops depends on where the most vorticity and instability is. Since the vorticity appears to be dropping southward below 15N towards where the strongest convection now appears to be developing it is very possible that the center could form below 15 degrees. Remember that an MLC is the first stage of development in most cases, especially for Cape Verde systems, and the MLC forms where the heaviest convection clusters. Any nearby vorticity can fizzle pretty quickly when the main thunderstorm cluster starts organizing around its own center.

thanks for the explanation. thats probably why joe bastardi says its headed for the windwards.

[Gustywind]

Latest saved image. No shading from NHC at 8pm EST outlook? Interesting...

http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y47 ... 138ea5.jpg

Nice looking TWAVE. Convection is expanding nicely, continues to becoming fatter and fatter.






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2013082718&set=Tropical

NAVGEM sends this south of PR and heading into Jam.....lots of isobars

not to be a nitpicker, but isnt this model developing the small cluster of storms at about 12n 53w and not the wave in question here? the one not quite at 40w?