Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[hurricaneCW]

I like how it's staying intact through DMIN, it gives me better hope that it could develop plus it has a nice moisture envelope around it.

[cycloneye]

The latest saved image.

[ozonepete]

Glad to see you back on this topic Ozonepete . As many of this board, i appreciate your bright analysis . What are your latest thoughts on 25 L?

Thanks, bro. You are as bright as any bulb on here. I doubt (but really don't know) that the models account for the MJO factor and I can't explain MJO much here, but the MJO is going very negative over this region right now and that can really help this fire up quickly. Basically a negative MJO means a large area of upper divergence or potential for the air at 200 mb to allow for really rapidly upward rising air currents. This allows thunderstorms to grow really high into the atmosphere and of course it's the core of really high thunderstorms that fuels a strong tropical cyclone.

Just take a look at how rapidly this is consolidating and it seems the core may form well south of 15 degrees. This means all of the islands had better start watching.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks nice

[gatorcane]

Agree with Ozonepete that it could be consolidating further south than the GFS is showing which means it would be more difficult to miss the islands with it so far south.

Here is something else to look at. Look at all the moisture out there around this wave in the upper-levels. There is some orange way off the NW but boy has that shrunk...what a difference a week makes as far as the dry air goes in the MDR.

MDR is primed for development now!

[Meteorcane]

From WV it appears very solid right now, and is holding its own on IR (despite it being nearly DMIN), I think if we can get some vort consolidation (which it should as convection increases, due to greater moisture/basin-wide instability, MJO pulse etc.) this thing could be something to watch.

[ozonepete]

Looks nice

you need to fix your signature, lol.

[ozonepete]

Agree with Ozonepete that it could be consolidating further south than the GFS is showing which means it would be more difficult to miss the islands with it so far south.

Here is something else to look at. Look at all the moisture out there around this wave in the upper-levels. There is some orange way off the NW but boy has that shrunk...what a difference a week makes as far as the dry air goes in the MDR.

MDR is primed for development now!

Right, gator. And it looks like it's moving into low shear as well. This really has to be watched closely.

[abajan]

I would be very surprised if the next TWO still had development potential at 0% and 30%. This thing looks very healthy.

[ozonepete]

I would be very surprised if the next TWO still had development potential at 0% and 30%. This thing looks very healthy.

You and me both. They will definitely bump it up.

[cycloneye]

Agree with Ozonepete that it could be consolidating further south than the GFS is showing which means it would be more difficult to miss the islands with it so far south.

Here is something else to look at. Look at all the moisture out there around this wave in the upper-levels. There is some orange way off the NW but boy has that shrunk...what a difference a week makes as far as the dry air goes in the MDR.

MDR is primed for development now!

http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y47 ... 60233d.jpg

Right, gator. And it looks like it's moving into low shear as well. This really has to be watched closely.

And also heading to warmer sst's.

[Alyono]

Hang on everyone

The actual wave is well EAST of the convection... closer to 34W. This isn't really consolidating that well

[Hurricane Andrew]

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IMO

24 Hours: 10%
48 Hours: 30%
120 Hours: 70%

[Hurricane Alexis]

Hang on everyone

The actual wave is well EAST of the convection... closer to 34W. This isn't really consolidating that well

So the convection can just poof at any time?

[Alyono]

Hang on everyone

The actual wave is well EAST of the convection... closer to 34W. This isn't really consolidating that well

So the convection can just poof at any time?

not really sure

However, we are starting to get more convection now back near 34W. That is where the wave is and where any development will occur.

[Alyono]

I also agree with NHCs current probs. No reason to increase them at this point. Nothing to justify higher probs. Mine are actually quite similar

[SFLcane]

Hoping this gets invested soon would like to see some models run HWRF,GFDL etc..agree on moisture field has indeed increased out there across the MDR should be an interesting few weeks ahead.

[ROCK]

the NAVGEM has been showing 2 areas consolidating in prior runs...which took awhile to do...maybe this is what it was seeing....

[StormTracker]

Further south & further east Aly? That's not good for the islands! Less shear? More moisture?

[ozonepete]

A common scenario for these CV waves is for convection to trail the wave axis initially off the African coast but then start to run ahead of it as it gets midway towards the islands. In these cases the building convection consolidates ahead of the wave axis and the center will form somewhere in between, i.e. at the back of the main cluster of convection. That's what looks like is going on here. There is already mid-level rotation occurring around 11 to 12N and 36 to 37W and that's where an MLC is likely forming.