Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

Yellow circle added and is at 10%.


SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES. AFTER THAT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ouragans]

Yellow circle added and is at 10%.

really? after 5 days in their extended outlook, keeping people waiting, they could have been at least able to locate that yellow area. They updated the image 3 times, and no yellow circle!

This 5-days outlook must remain experimental, it has no meaning

EDIT: 4 updates to add the yellow area at 8:00!!!

[Gustywind]

Yellow circle added and is at 10%.

really? after 5 days in their extended outlook, keeping people waiting, they could have been at least able to locate that yellow area. They updated the image 3 times, and no yellow circle!

This 5-days outlook must remain experimental, it has no meaning

EDIT: 4 updates to add the yellow area at 8:00!!!

That's a great observation Ouragans , that's make sense IMO. Anyway, let's continue to monitor it.

[tolakram]

The euro still shows some organization in the vorticity plots and what I term a splotch of lower pressure. Since the euro has gone from showing absolutely nothing to something I can understand the need to pay attention. At 96 hours the euro stalls this vorticity, then shoots it almost due north and ends up in this position. Odd.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[tolakram]

Live visible. Convection all north of the circulation.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye could we have the latest sat pic for Pouch 25L? Thanks.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

This 5-day SAL loop shows that there was alot of SAL mixing in with the general circulation of 25L over the last few days. The latest pictures suggest that this SAL has mixed out which might allow for convection to form.

[tolakram]

Big picture from the FTP site



ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[hurricanes1234]

As of now, I just don't see this developing. Nearly everything will inhibit development, the only thing favourable is warm water. Of course, there's the exceedingly dry air and Sahara dust everywhere, and the wind shear will soon increase, so it seems questionable to me how something could develop when the air is sinking and blowing in different directions. Does anyone else agree? Of course, this is just an ameteur opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

There is still some magic dust to the north and west of this TW as seen on the visible satellite this morning, it may not be the problem down the road but the GFS forecasts yet another ULL near Hispaniola/PR that shreds it apart as the TW approaches it.
The GFS has been doing a good job with these ULLs.

[gatorcane]

06Z FIM spins it up at 168 hours. Though it keeps pushing back development so not sure how believable this is

[NDG]

On this visible satellite pix you can clearly see a ring of the magic dust possibly getting entrained into the circulation from the western quadrant.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

On this visible satellite pix you can clearly see a ring of the magic dust possibly getting entrained into the circulation from the western quadrant.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 44fd44.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time

Much less and getting less all the time as shown on the 5 day loop.

[Alyono]

06Z FIM spins it up at 168 hours. Though it keeps pushing back development so not sure how believable this is

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/1426/m6bc.png

looks like a strong open wave on the FIM... no west winds

[Sanibel]

Too Weak

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I just don't see this developing. Too much dry air entrained into the system. The same old story for 2013 continues for the tropical Atlantic basin, which is that is it as dead as a doorknob.

[tolakram]

I don't know if this is a usable metric or not, but looking at the 500-300mb relative humidity it sure seems like these values should be higher in the tropics.

from the 6Z GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082906&field=500-300mb+Mean+RH&hour=Animation

[Hurricaneman]

This system looks a little better, but still limited convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneDREW92]

This system looks a little better, but still limited convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Think they should bump up the 5 day development chances to 30% at 2pm.

[Hurricaneman]

This system looks a little better, but still limited convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Think they should bump up the 5 day development chances to 30% at 2pm.

I completely disagree until the GFS comes onboard with the other models that it should stay at 20% in 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products