ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Looks like the type that will re-burst after outrunning its convection.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Oscat pass. Looks good. Still elongated but tighter than earlier.

http://imageshack.us/a/img819/3928/7my1.jpg

That looks tight enough to me, though it missed most of the western quadrant of the disturbance.

Tight enough for what?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@USTropics I'm just pointing out that if the top experts in the world, with all their many & various tools, do not know for sure if this'll be a major, then how the heck can anyone on this board say they do?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Still feeling the EC storm vibe

[Blinhart]

You can't go wrong if you say: Its not coming to Texas. Other than that, its up for grabs if it develops.

I don't think anyone will agree with you on this, especially this year when nothing has gone the way it was suppose to go.

[cycloneye]

Sun going down. Focus seems just east of Martinique.

[USTropics]

@USTropics I'm just pointing out that if the top experts in the world, with all their many & various tools, do not know for sure if this'll be a major, then how the heck can anyone on this board say they do?

Oh yea, I'm completely agreeing with you. I was just adding to your thoughts that the models have especially been poor this year in particular. Case in point, the ECMWF and GFS wanted to shred this system to pieces by the ULL (and still do). While the ULL has induced shear over 97L, it's helped create the convection 97L has been lacking prior in the MDR/Atlantic, which has helped sustain a healthy low level vorticity despite a sheared UL environment.

[SouthDadeFish]

While convection is waning as can be expected with this time of day, I'm noticing improving outflow to the south of the system.

[hurricanes1234]

While convection is waning as can be expected with this time of day, I'm noticing improving outflow to the south of the system.

When is the Diurnal Maximum and Diurnal Minimum? I'm fairly new to this.

[SFLcane]

Still don't see much substantial inflow at low levels with 97L.Wouldn't be surprised if all convection poofs. IR imagery at the moment is certainly not one of a developing TC in my opinion.

In 2013 systems cant hold convection for more then 2hrs it seems.

[Hurricaneman]

While convection is waning as can be expected with this time of day, I'm noticing improving outflow to the south of the system.

This may be the beginning of a tropical cyclone and in this case looking ahead this may be the first interesting system of the season, the path will probably be anywhere from Pensacola to Miami to possibly even the Outer Banks depending on how strong the trough is and where its located and of course how strong 97L is

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

While convection is waning as can be expected with this time of day, I'm noticing improving outflow to the south of the system.

When is the Diurnal Maximum and Diurnal Minimum? I'm fairly new to this.

DMIN peaks around sunset and DMAX peaks around sunrise.

[HurricaneDREW92]

While convection is waning as can be expected with this time of day, I'm noticing improving outflow to the south of the system.

When is the Diurnal Maximum and Diurnal Minimum? I'm fairly new to this.

DMIN peaks around sunset and DMAX peaks around sunrise.

The basics are DMIN wanes convection and DMAX waxes it

[Hurricaneman]

The MLC and surface low seem to be stacking, instead of being 2 degrees apart they are like 1 degree apart now, once they stack we may have a problem developing in the Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneDREW92]

Still don't see much substantial inflow at low levels with 97L.Wouldn't be surprised if all convection poofs. IR imagery at the moment is certainly not one of a developing TC in my opinion.

In 2013 systems cant hold convection for more then 2hrs it seems.

Whaddya mean? Has plenty of convection with it. Looks like a developing TC to me.

[Sanibel]

Sun going down. Focus seems just east of Martinique.

You can see it on Visible Floater.


Should burst a new center later tonight.

[Hurricaneman]

Still don't see much substantial inflow at low levels with 97L.Wouldn't be surprised if all convection poofs. IR imagery at the moment is certainly not one of a developing TC in my opinion.

In 2013 systems cant hold convection for more then 2hrs it seems.

Whaddya mean? Has plenty of convection with it. Looks like a developing TC to me.

What I think it means is that and indication of good inflow would be banding and moisture from a moist source which this has very little of ATM but that could quickly change

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ ... 012145.gif

its taken the shape of an inverted V, not healthy for the convection east of 60. whatever refires tonight is likely to be west of the islands.

[jinftl]

The key will be if the convection can organize - it has not to the point yet where the NHC is giving it a 60% chance as of 2pm of not developing in the next 48 hours. Convection does not equal a developing and organizing system necessarily - we have had huge thunderstorms over the Florida straits and Bahamas over 85 degree water and that does not mean they are developing the internal structure of a tropical system.

A couple of things do merit attention to this system:

1) location - this is not a wave just moving off the coast of Africa. This is in the 120 hour window of possibly being a threat to Florida and a threat to Hispanola and Cuba sooner

2) MJO pulse - long-talked about as finally kick-starting the Atlantic, we may be seeing the evidence of that with 97L

3) Shear is not off the charts unfavorable and is expected to lessen down the road

4) TCHP - if a system wanted to do a cycle of 'roids to boost it's strength, the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Yucatan would be the place to do it

5) we've got little else to look at so why not turn this into the 'one' we've been waiting for

I would like to see all the main models on board before getting too excited though

[vbhoutex]

Still don't see much substantial inflow at low levels with 97L.Wouldn't be surprised if all convection poofs. IR imagery at the moment is certainly not one of a developing TC in my opinion.

In 2013 systems cant hold convection for more then 2hrs it seems.

Whaddya mean? Has plenty of convection with it. Looks like a developing TC to me.

I totally agree. The convection is still displaced well East of the surface low. Not much inflow evident at the lower levels as stated also. IMO this one is still struggling. That is not to say it isn't causing problems in the islands, but I do not think is on the verge of becoming a TD at all.