T numbers 6.5 for Isabel ~ 145mph ~ 935mb

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Valkhorn
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T numbers 6.5 for Isabel ~ 145mph ~ 935mb

#1 Postby Valkhorn » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:24 pm

Looks like Isabel is intensifying. It may be the strongest it can get but if it reached a 7.0 later tonight I wouldn't be surprised.

Notice its oriented straight due west. It will also take a southwesterly jog here and there over the next 48 hours.

Andrew did nearly the same thing when it was weaker due to a ridge above it. Since Isabel is stronger when it encountered this ridge than Andrew was expect a few more southwesterly wobbles.
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:28 pm

I would not be surprised to see Isabel get to 150 MPH either late tonight or early tomorrow.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:30 pm

Oh goodness....I feel for the recipient of Isabel.
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#4 Postby ColinD » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:33 pm

Duck and cover.
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#5 Postby Valkhorn » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:34 pm

6.5 is a good levelling off point too for Isabel as it was for so many other hurricanes in the past. A lot of them max out at 140-155mph and never make it to Category 5.

HOWEVER, we do have to watch this closely. Now that it has fully replaced the eyewall it could try to intensify once more, and at this point it wouldn't take much to crank it up a notch.
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#6 Postby wow » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:39 pm

it might actually make it to cat 5. she's getting her act together again. cold cloud tops are working its way around the eye now and turning more symmetrical.
Last edited by wow on Wed Sep 10, 2003 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby Steve H. » Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:57 pm

Yeah she's free wheelin' now. Doesn't seem to be bothered by the external influences and is enjoying the excellent environment. Eyewall is getting smaller, bet its 145. Good news is if it peaks now it likely will not Maintain that strength. Cheers!!
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wrkh99

#8 Postby wrkh99 » Wed Sep 10, 2003 6:54 pm

shes geting stronger watch out ~
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:00 pm

The northern portion of the hurricane's outflow is not quite as definted but the equatorial outflow chaanel is unreal ... that's a tremendous amount of outflow on the southwestern side of Isabel...

SF
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#10 Postby AussieMark » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:08 pm

Isabel looks larger than Andrew so if it strikes anywhere along the US from Florida to North Carolina there will be loads of damage caused I am talking $10 Billion minimum. That is if landfall is made as a category 4.

<img src="http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUWV.JPG" height="300" width="400">
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#11 Postby soonertwister » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:23 pm

Damage is dramatically linked to population. If Isabel hits anywhere on the east coast the most critical areas will be within 15-25 miles of the eyewall. If the landfall is in a low population area the hit is minimized. If it is dead-on into a major metro area as a cat 4+ the damage could be enormous. At a maximum, there could be a path of extreme or major devastation up to perhaps 75 miles wide, more likely 50.

Still, that's a pretty darned big brush hog.
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#12 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:39 pm

I really pray that this system never makes landfall but if it must, I hope that it is signicantly weaker than it is right now. A Cat4 hurricane is something that we do NOT need.
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#13 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:56 pm

Looks like Isabel is roughly twice the size geographically as Andrew. That's one big storm!
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#14 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 10, 2003 8:35 pm

I would not be surprised if Izzy was 145 to 150 mph on the 11PM Advisory.

I think she could peak at 160, Cat 5, briefly, but I hope that this cane hits a very low population area, NOT a metro. If the storm makes landfall whaich at the moment it appears she will eventually do, I hope Izzy weakens some before doing so. I wish she would just do a nice recurve and become a Fish Spinner for us.

We really don't need this particular storm.


-Jeb
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wrkh99

#15 Postby wrkh99 » Wed Sep 10, 2003 8:47 pm

Watch out texas to the NE
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