ATL: GABRIELLE - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9874
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z...
12z...Recurve models go strong...Westward models stay weak...
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
That is quite a sharp recurve for early September. Looks like a track you would see in October or November. The trough is unseasonably strong for this time of year and the Bermuda High is just not there at all it seems as we approach the peak of the season.
Looks more likely that it won't be a United States issue given the Euro has shifted east as well, which is some good news. Lots of potentially flooding rains for Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Leeward islands which is unfortunate.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Looks more likely that it won't be a United States issue given the Euro has shifted east as well, which is some good news. Lots of potentially flooding rains for Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Leeward islands which is unfortunate.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
My take is that if the euro shifts east then it is trying to develop the storm. I don't think west was ever in the cards unless it stays a wave and continues with the low level flow. Anything can happen, of course, including the models making mistakes with the speed and environment 97L will be in if/when it reaches the Bahamas.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
6Z NAVGEM is an odd run....develops the East low and sends it off to the NE while the west low is left behind barely noticable heading towards the FL straits....hmmmmmm
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes
- alienstorm
- Category 1
- Posts: 496
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
- Location: Miami Fla western suburb
If you look at the water vapor loop - I see the trough digging but you can see the big high coming in after it, not sure that this trough will pick up what ever is down with 97L
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added URL tags
Reason: added URL tags
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
alienstorm wrote:If you look at the water vapor loop - I see the trough digging but you can see the big high coming in after it, not sure that this trough will pick up what ever is down with 97L
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash
good point...I will back it up with the 12Z NAM....not that the NAM is good with tropical systems but that 1022MB high dropping down is fixing to trap this at 84hr...going to be close...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013090412/nam_reflectivity_watl.html
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added URL tags
Reason: added URL tags
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Please use URL tags.
You can push the URL button above the post box and paste your link between the tags.
Thanks.
You can push the URL button above the post box and paste your link between the tags.
Thanks.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3205
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re:
alienstorm wrote:If you look at the water vapor loop - I see the trough digging but you can see the big high coming in after it, not sure that this trough will pick up what ever is down with 97L
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash
I have been looking at that the past couple of days. I think the high could build in cutting off the re-curve.
0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- CalmBeforeStorm
- Category 2
- Posts: 600
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
- Location: Stuart, Florida
Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:alienstorm wrote:If you look at the water vapor loop - I see the trough digging but you can see the big high coming in after it, not sure that this trough will pick up what ever is down with 97L
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash
good point...I will back it up with the 12Z NAM....not that the NAM is good with tropical systems but that 1022MB high dropping down is fixing to trap this at 84hr...going to be close...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013090412/nam_reflectivity_watl.html
Did you notice that the NAM, like the 0z CMC, develops the eastern most feature?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
yes it seems some of these are keying off the east low....really hard call for them it seems.
0 likes
- CalmBeforeStorm
- Category 2
- Posts: 600
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
- Location: Stuart, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
ROCK wrote:yes it seems some of these are keying off the east low....really hard call for them it seems.
You have to wonder if the western feature engulfs the eastern feature and develops how that will change the model output.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:ROCK wrote:yes it seems some of these are keying off the east low....really hard call for them it seems.
You have to wonder if the western feature engulfs the eastern feature and develops how that will change the model output.
it should not. If it were, I'd expect GFDL/HWRF which are focusing on the developing EC system to have a farther west track. They also have solid recurvature
0 likes
- CalmBeforeStorm
- Category 2
- Posts: 600
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
- Location: Stuart, Florida
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle=20130904%2012%20UTC¶m=850_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=The 12z GFS now makes the eastern most vort the dominant one at 84 hrs. Seems to be a model trend.
0 likes
- CalmBeforeStorm
- Category 2
- Posts: 600
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
- Location: Stuart, Florida
Re:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_120_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=~~~~~~~~~
At 120 hrs the 12z GFS leaves 97L behind(although very weak) as the more dominant eastern low gets pulled NE out to sea.
At 120 hrs the 12z GFS leaves 97L behind(although very weak) as the more dominant eastern low gets pulled NE out to sea.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re:
Alyono wrote:the models trends are likely wrong. Satellite shows that the trailing wave is starting to become entrained into the Caribbean low
Woops, I did not read this before posting in the discussion thread. That's what I thought I was seeing, so it's good to get some confirmation. Will be interesting to see what the models do once this data is ingested.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
The 12Z GFS vorticity is interesting. Still wants to develop the northern feature, but a bit more removed from 97L now, which gets stuck in the Bahamas and dissipates.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090412/gfs_vort850_uv200_atltropics.html
It still moves mostly east of Hispaniola.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090412/gfs_vort850_uv200_atltropics.html
It still moves mostly east of Hispaniola.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013090412/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html
well the CMC is wrong then because it to thinks the east low becomes dominant leaving the west low to meander in the carib...
well the CMC is wrong then because it to thinks the east low becomes dominant leaving the west low to meander in the carib...
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Models are clearly having an issue resolving the dynamics at play. given the area to the east now appears to have a weak low developing they are likely to start fujiwhara around each other to some extent and given the the low south of PR is nearly stationary and the area/ low to the NE is very quickly swing wnw is an indication that there is bit more interaction between the two and is causing the models to vary widely.
notice the affect the system karen had on Iris it caused iris to stall briefly.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qaj8l6IJpWU[/youtube]
notice the affect the system karen had on Iris it caused iris to stall briefly.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qaj8l6IJpWU[/youtube]
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Youtubed? the link
Reason: Youtubed? the link
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest