ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

First visible pix of TS Gabrielle this morning.

[HurriGuy]

Okay, did this thing move at all over the last 6 hours? I swear it just sat there and absorbed the other wave and fired up convection near the center all night long.

[NDG]

we are going to wait to see where the recon finds the surface COC, if at all. I am having a hard time finding it, if it has one it is well west of the MLC, but a new surface circulation might form closer to it.

[HurriGuy]

Is it dealing with some sheer right now? Cause it certainly looks like it. The overall appearance looks pretty ragged IMO. Can find any COC. W

[TheBurn]

1045Z VIS/IR (Day/Night)

[Frank2]

The center appears to be on a 020 heading...

[NDG]

I took a tour on wundermap and I cannot find any evidence of a tight surface COC, IMO the the recon will find nothing but a broad area of low pressure, a new LLC might form layer today closer to the MLC and deep convection east of P.R.

[Sanibel]

Slow moving rain dumper got the Virgins.

[ninel conde]

Is it dealing with some sheer right now? Cause it certainly looks like it. The overall appearance looks pretty ragged IMO. Can find any COC. W

NHC did say it might dissipate. its isnt aligned at all and may be a strong wave. naming it may have been premature.

[ninel conde]

I took a tour on wundermap and I cannot find any evidence of a tight surface COC, IMO the the recon will find nothing but a broad area of low pressure, a new LLC might form layer today closer to the MLC and deep convection east of P.R.

maybe, but i think the convection is going to dry up quite a bit today which will weaken any circ even more. something interesting to watch is the moisture is streaming into the upper low se of bermuda. maybe the ull will begin to take on tropical characteristics before it heads on out.

[jlauderdal]

Is it dealing with some sheer right now? Cause it certainly looks like it. The overall appearance looks pretty ragged IMO. Can find any COC. W

NHC did say it might dissipate. its isnt aligned at all and may be a strong wave. naming it may have been premature.

they name systems based on the data at the present, they don't consider the future when deciding if it should be named or not..we have seen storms get named and then die in less than a day..remember nhc is operating on science and facts not conjecture like we get to do here..

[HurriGuy]

looks like 2013 season is still shaping up to be pitiful. Gab. looks raggedy.

[jlauderdal]

looks like 2013 season is still shaping up to be pitiful. Gab. looks raggedy.

almost two full months left, October is statistically most active for florida...wouldn't be a "pitiful" for season for someone that gets hit..wilma rolled through here end of october

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 67.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[ninel conde]

looks like 2013 season is still shaping up to be pitiful. Gab. looks raggedy.

almost two full months left, October is statistically most active for florida...wouldn't be a "pitiful" for season for someone that gets hit..wilma rolled through here end of october

would have to see a ridge build over new england first. also, when the meat of the season is weak and dried up they often end early. back to gab, we may be seeing a dennis 1999 scenario play out. in that case all the moisture with dennis got stripped away by powerful shear and its low level swirl drifted around till it redevloped and backed into NC. 2 things to watch for. can gab maintain a swirl, if it even has one, and can it drift around long enough for a high to build and lock in north of it.

[HurriGuy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

bye bye. Puerto Rico looks to be doing fine now.

[tolakram]

That darn Euro model and it's tendency to be correct.

This is how last nights Euro run initialized the vorticity. I thought it was crazy.



It sure looks like the center is trying to reform NE of PR.

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[ninel conde]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

bye bye. Puerto Rico looks to be doing fine now.

if there is a circ its very broad. while western PR looks rather dry it does appear that a persistent rain band has set up over eastern PR.

[HurriGuy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Biggest impact overnight was the west side of St. Croix with around 4 inches.