ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Also note that the plane is not finding anything remotely close to TS winds. Generally 10-15 kts.

[floridasun78]

now every one writing GABRIELLE off after some say it alive day ago

[tolakram]

now every one writing GABRIELLE off after some say it alive day ago

It was alive a day ago, now it appears it is not.

I think a good question is; will this reform north of PR?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-animated.gif
~~~~~~~~~~
I think the system is reorganizing closer to the center of where the energy is in the middle of the upper level high pressure shown in this vapor loop. I wouldn't be surprised to see an LLC develop around 18.0 and 63.0 or 64.0. Everyone assumed that the wave to the NE of Gabrielle would be engulfed into her but that isn't what happened. This could become quite an impressive system when this reorganization is done as this system encompasses a very wide area. Or maybe it shoots to the NE as the Euro suggests before it can reorganize.

[Hurricaneman]

I personally think the models a few days ago had the right idea with the 2 vortmax idea, one that moved towards or near Hispaniola and one that went just east of PR so while it is rare we may end up with a second system with the MLC if the NHC goes with the LLCC as Gabby

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

Wow.. see the naked LLC near 68w 17.5N moving westward. That TW to the east appears to be taking over.

[Dean4Storms]

What is it this year about TC's in the Atlantic basin being unable to stack and deepen much?

[gatorcane]

I really do think the old LLC is SE of Hispaniola.

Looks like you nailed it. I see it there now too with more frames coming in on the VIS loop.

[tolakram]

Wind Shear.

[Dean4Storms]

This is a complete disorganized mess.

[Dean4Storms]

I really do think the old LLC is SE of Hispaniola.

Looks like you nailed it. I see it there now too with more frames coming in on the VIS loop.

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/561/vuny.jpg

Yes that has to be the old LLC.

[Blown Away]

Will the LLC continue towards Hispaniola and dissipate or will the MLC east of PR become the dominant area and build down to surface???

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-animated.gif
~~~~~~~~~~
I think the system is reorganizing closer to the center of where the energy is in the middle of the upper level high pressure shown in this vapor loop. I wouldn't be surprised to see an LLC develop around 18.0 and 63.0 or 64.0. Everyone assumed that the wave to the NE of Gabrielle would be engulfed into her but that isn't what happened. This could become quite an impressive system when this reorganization is done as this system encompasses a very wide area. Or maybe it shoots to the NE as the Euro suggests before it can reorganize.

I am not too sure. There is plenty of wind sheer above these coordinates. IMO though.

[Dean4Storms]

That old LLC is toast, it is convectionless, shear overhead and headed for Hispaniola.

[tolakram]

Under 20+ kts of shear I think re-organization is far from certain.

Latest GFS shear forecast (they are often wrong) doesn't show much improvement, if any.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090506&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

['CaneFreak]

So much for the UL anticyclone following Gabrielle to keep the shear low. Sheesh. The future for this system looks very bleak. Yet another one bites the dust in 2013. Is it November 31st yet?

[HurriGuy]

Looks like sheer has got this system in the bag. IMO its a done deal in having to downgrade this.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I find the psychology of this situation very interesting. If there had never been a Gabrielle everyone would be very excited about the nice mid level spin with the related deep convection and the nice anti-cyclone over top of it at around 18.0 and 65.0

[christchurchguy]

What is the Mid-shear like?

[gatorcane]

Definitely not looking good but if this system hangs around down there long enough, it can certainly find more favorable conditions once you look out several days into early next week.

The best thing is that the trough will come in soon and take it away but I am not so sure that is certain given the interaction we are seeing between Gabrielle and the system to the east.

Remember, this was one of the big forecast uncertainties many of us have been mentioning.

It's interesting the NHC hasn't really discussed the interaction uncertainty alot as far as track is concerned because their discussions seems to suggest they think a recurve will happen.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.