Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF has a 1004mb Low in the Southern BOC by 96 hours (Friday Morning)

[wxman57]

Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...

I saved some screenshots of my workstation during Claudette. On Saturday, July 19th there was an upper-level trof extending down to the NW Gulf. Claudette was about in the center of the Gulf near 25.5N/91.5W. The upper high was displaced over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing SW wind shear. Claudette was very nearly caught by the trof and pulled north to LA. However, the trof lifted abruptly by Sunday morning and a ridge built eastward from Texas, blocking its forward progress. Claudette began moving slowly westward toward the mid TX coast, strengthening significantly prior to landfall in Matagorda Bay.

[Tireman4]

Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...

I saved some screenshots of my workstation during Claudette. On Saturday, July 19th there was an upper-level trof extending down to the NW Gulf. Claudette was about in the center of the Gulf near 25.5N/91.5W. The upper high was displaced over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing SW wind shear. Claudette was very nearly caught by the trof and pulled north to LA. However, the trof lifted abruptly by Sunday morning and a ridge built eastward from Texas, blocking its forward progress. Claudette began moving slowly westward toward the mid TX coast, strengthening significantly prior to landfall in Matagorda Bay.

So, that scenario would not even be in the cards this time? I was just curious.

[Rgv20]

Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...

I saved some screenshots of my workstation during Claudette. On Saturday, July 19th there was an upper-level trof extending down to the NW Gulf. Claudette was about in the center of the Gulf near 25.5N/91.5W. The upper high was displaced over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing SW wind shear. Claudette was very nearly caught by the trof and pulled north to LA. However, the trof lifted abruptly by Sunday morning and a ridge built eastward from Texas, blocking its forward progress. Claudette began moving slowly westward toward the mid TX coast, strengthening significantly prior to landfall in Matagorda Bay.

I remember her wasn't she was suppose to make landfall in South Texas?


Back on topic...12zECMWF has a 1003mb low by 120hrs

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z GFS track of this system reminds me a lot of TS Hermine almost exactly 2 years ago today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hermine_2010_track.png

[Alyono]

Hermine moved quickly... this is not expected to move anywhere nearly as quick

of course, more time over the water could allow this to become a hurricane

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS track of this system reminds me a lot of TS Hermine almost exactly 2 years ago today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hermine_2010_track.png

I'd gladly welcome that track ... would provide some desperately needed rainfall for much of Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z GFS track of this system reminds me a lot of TS Hermine almost exactly 2 years ago today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hermine_2010_track.png

I'd gladly welcome that track ... would provide some desperately needed rainfall for much of Texas.

Yeah I would too Porta. Hermine helped to briefly end our drought 2 years ago.

[Portastorm]

As pointed out on the (more) local KHOU forum, the ensemble members from the 12z GFS run have a few eye-opening possibilities in 180 hours.



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[South Texas Storms]

From the Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowen) Facebook page:

"The GFS, ECMWF, and other models continue to get more aggressive in showing a tropical storm or hurricane developing in the SW Gulf of Mexico in 5-7 days under the currently unstable pattern for the region. Mexico will have to monitor this situation, but with an upper shortwave passing by to the north and breaking down the plains ridge around that time, it may be that Texas ends up in the mix as well. We will have to wait to see where and when a storm tries to form.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....

Good call Rock! I was just thinking about your post saying how the GFS will likely shift around soon, and sure enough, the 12z did.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....

That doesn't prove you're not off your rocker!

We've already seen how fast systems can strengthen in the SW Gulf/BoC this year. I certainly would not rule out a hurricane. By the way, the wave in the NW Caribbean, which looks like the source of the development in the BoC, appears to be the southern part of the wave that spawned Gabrielle.

[Kalrany]

Just to clarify (total novice here) that is the same wave, but not the same reminants? So it would not be Gabrielle, correct? (Yes, I know it is a very basic question -- I just want to be sure I am understaning things correctly.) Thanks to whoever replys.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....

That doesn't prove you're not off your rocker!

We've already seen how fast systems can strengthen in the SW Gulf/BoC this year. I certainly would not rule out a hurricane. By the way, the wave in the NW Caribbean, which looks like the source of the development in the BoC, appears to be the southern part of the wave that spawned Gabrielle.

that was a good one!!

all about timing and how that SW displaces the high....we see on the 12Z GFS it shifts it to the east and the 500mb flow is straight north..Deep system will take that opening....

[wxman57]

Just to clarify (total novice here) that is the same wave, but not the same reminants? So it would not be Gabrielle, correct? (Yes, I know it is a very basic question -- I just want to be sure I am understaning things correctly.) Thanks to whoever replys.

It's quite common for the top part of a tropical wave to break free and develop into a tropical storm and the southern part of the wave continues to move westward in the deep tropics. I've tracked this wave back and it looks like it's the one which spawned Gabrielle, but it is NOT Gabrielle. Gabrielle's remnants are heading toward Bermuda. Any TS development in the BoC this week would get the name "Ingrid".

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I'm with wxman57 on this one ... I'm not all that certain you aren't off your rocker, ROCK!

Some of the 12z model suite certainly raises an eyebrow or two. But the 0z suite could just as easily switch back to progging a strong Southern Plains ridge. I am curious about climatology and what storms which form in the SW Gulf or BOC tend to do this time of year.

[Ikeman]

Just to clarify, is the disturbance we see in 3 to 5 days in the BOC directly related to the apparent current circulation in the NW Carribean?

[wxman57]

Just to clarify, is the disturbance we see in 3 to 5 days in the BOC directly related to the apparent current circulation in the NW Carribean?

That's correct. The wave will be moving into the BoC during the day on Wednesday, at which time it has an excellent chance of becoming "Ingrid" - probably on Thursday or Friday.

[Ikeman]

Thank You sir!