Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

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Rgv20
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#121 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:20 pm

12zECMWF has a 1004mb Low in the Southern BOC by 96 hours (Friday Morning)
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#122 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:21 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...


I saved some screenshots of my workstation during Claudette. On Saturday, July 19th there was an upper-level trof extending down to the NW Gulf. Claudette was about in the center of the Gulf near 25.5N/91.5W. The upper high was displaced over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing SW wind shear. Claudette was very nearly caught by the trof and pulled north to LA. However, the trof lifted abruptly by Sunday morning and a ridge built eastward from Texas, blocking its forward progress. Claudette began moving slowly westward toward the mid TX coast, strengthening significantly prior to landfall in Matagorda Bay.
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Re: Re:

#123 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...


I saved some screenshots of my workstation during Claudette. On Saturday, July 19th there was an upper-level trof extending down to the NW Gulf. Claudette was about in the center of the Gulf near 25.5N/91.5W. The upper high was displaced over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing SW wind shear. Claudette was very nearly caught by the trof and pulled north to LA. However, the trof lifted abruptly by Sunday morning and a ridge built eastward from Texas, blocking its forward progress. Claudette began moving slowly westward toward the mid TX coast, strengthening significantly prior to landfall in Matagorda Bay.



So, that scenario would not even be in the cards this time? I was just curious.
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Re: Re:

#124 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...


I saved some screenshots of my workstation during Claudette. On Saturday, July 19th there was an upper-level trof extending down to the NW Gulf. Claudette was about in the center of the Gulf near 25.5N/91.5W. The upper high was displaced over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing SW wind shear. Claudette was very nearly caught by the trof and pulled north to LA. However, the trof lifted abruptly by Sunday morning and a ridge built eastward from Texas, blocking its forward progress. Claudette began moving slowly westward toward the mid TX coast, strengthening significantly prior to landfall in Matagorda Bay.


I remember her wasn't she was suppose to make landfall in South Texas?


Back on topic...12zECMWF has a 1003mb low by 120hrs
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#125 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:10 pm

The 12z GFS track of this system reminds me a lot of TS Hermine almost exactly 2 years ago today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hermine_2010_track.png
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#126 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:14 pm

Hermine moved quickly... this is not expected to move anywhere nearly as quick

of course, more time over the water could allow this to become a hurricane
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#127 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:23 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:The 12z GFS track of this system reminds me a lot of TS Hermine almost exactly 2 years ago today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hermine_2010_track.png


I'd gladly welcome that track ... would provide some desperately needed rainfall for much of Texas.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#128 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:30 pm

Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The 12z GFS track of this system reminds me a lot of TS Hermine almost exactly 2 years ago today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hermine_2010_track.png


I'd gladly welcome that track ... would provide some desperately needed rainfall for much of Texas.


Yeah I would too Porta. Hermine helped to briefly end our drought 2 years ago.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#129 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:43 pm

As pointed out on the (more) local KHOU forum, the ensemble members from the 12z GFS run have a few eye-opening possibilities in 180 hours.

Image

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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#130 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:45 pm

From the Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowen) Facebook page:

"The GFS, ECMWF, and other models continue to get more aggressive in showing a tropical storm or hurricane developing in the SW Gulf of Mexico in 5-7 days under the currently unstable pattern for the region. Mexico will have to monitor this situation, but with an upper shortwave passing by to the north and breaking down the plains ridge around that time, it may be that Texas ends up in the mix as well. We will have to wait to see where and when a storm tries to form.



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Last edited by Portastorm on Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: deleted duplicate paragraph
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#131 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:01 pm

:uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! :wink: I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#132 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:04 pm

ROCK wrote::uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! :wink: I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....


Good call Rock! I was just thinking about your post saying how the GFS will likely shift around soon, and sure enough, the 12z did.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#133 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:06 pm

ROCK wrote::uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! :wink: I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....


That doesn't prove you're not off your rocker! ;-)

We've already seen how fast systems can strengthen in the SW Gulf/BoC this year. I certainly would not rule out a hurricane. By the way, the wave in the NW Caribbean, which looks like the source of the development in the BoC, appears to be the southern part of the wave that spawned Gabrielle.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#134 Postby Kalrany » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:09 pm

Just to clarify (total novice here) that is the same wave, but not the same reminants? So it would not be Gabrielle, correct? (Yes, I know it is a very basic question -- I just want to be sure I am understaning things correctly.) Thanks to whoever replys.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#135 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ROCK wrote::uarrow: and you guys thought I was off my rocker!! :wink: I might be old and cant see very well but I can sniff out a cane 5 days away....


That doesn't prove you're not off your rocker! ;-)

We've already seen how fast systems can strengthen in the SW Gulf/BoC this year. I certainly would not rule out a hurricane. By the way, the wave in the NW Caribbean, which looks like the source of the development in the BoC, appears to be the southern part of the wave that spawned Gabrielle.



:lol: that was a good one!!

all about timing and how that SW displaces the high....we see on the 12Z GFS it shifts it to the east and the 500mb flow is straight north..Deep system will take that opening....
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#136 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:21 pm

Kalrany wrote:Just to clarify (total novice here) that is the same wave, but not the same reminants? So it would not be Gabrielle, correct? (Yes, I know it is a very basic question -- I just want to be sure I am understaning things correctly.) Thanks to whoever replys.


It's quite common for the top part of a tropical wave to break free and develop into a tropical storm and the southern part of the wave continues to move westward in the deep tropics. I've tracked this wave back and it looks like it's the one which spawned Gabrielle, but it is NOT Gabrielle. Gabrielle's remnants are heading toward Bermuda. Any TS development in the BoC this week would get the name "Ingrid".
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#137 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:22 pm

:uarrow:

Yeah, I'm with wxman57 on this one ... I'm not all that certain you aren't off your rocker, ROCK! :P

Some of the 12z model suite certainly raises an eyebrow or two. But the 0z suite could just as easily switch back to progging a strong Southern Plains ridge. I am curious about climatology and what storms which form in the SW Gulf or BOC tend to do this time of year.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#138 Postby Ikeman » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:23 pm

Just to clarify, is the disturbance we see in 3 to 5 days in the BOC directly related to the apparent current circulation in the NW Carribean?
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#139 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:24 pm

Ikeman wrote:Just to clarify, is the disturbance we see in 3 to 5 days in the BOC directly related to the apparent current circulation in the NW Carribean?


That's correct. The wave will be moving into the BoC during the day on Wednesday, at which time it has an excellent chance of becoming "Ingrid" - probably on Thursday or Friday.
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Re: Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: 0% / 30%

#140 Postby Ikeman » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:25 pm

Thank You sir!
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