Global model runs discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Latest euro monthlies hint at a very active tropics in Oct.

If that ends up being the case, and it's a (BIG IF) then this definantly going to be one of those backloaded seasons.

[gatorcane]

What I find incredibly shocking is that every run of the GFS and ECMWF even in the long-range (out through 384 hours on the GFS) this season so far haven't shown any hurricane landfalls so far for the CONUS...and so far they have been right. In years past I can remember both these models (more so the GFS) would show "model" storms hitting the CONUS in the long-range to at least provide some discussion for folks on this board. This year...NADA.

When I look at both models today, they still show nothing for the next two weeks hitting the CONUS during the peak month of September. The BOC system gets close to Texas but still no U.S. landfalls. Quiet season so far for CONUS hits for sure...who would have thought with all the expert analysis suggesting CONUS would see some hits this year? Can it last through the rest of hurricane season like this is the big question?

[hurricaneCW]

As the season progresses the storms that develop in the BOC will likely head further north than currently so we could still ultimately see several US hits in late September and October.

Home brew will be key this year, the Gulf and Caribbean will be hot zones as usual and perhaps more than normal given the heat content. This could be one of those seasons where we see hurricanes into November.

[SFLcane]

Expecting an active oct..

[TheStormExpert]

What I find incredibly shocking is that every run of the GFS and ECMWF even in the long-range (out through 384 hours on the GFS) this season so far haven't shown any hurricane landfalls so far for the CONUS...and so far they have been right. In years past I can remember both these models (more so the GFS) would show "model" storms hitting the CONUS in the long-range to at least provide some discussion for folks on this board. This year...NADA.

When I look at both models today, they still show nothing for the next two weeks hitting the CONUS during the peak month of September. The BOC system gets close to Texas but still no U.S. landfalls. Quiet season so far for CONUS hits for sure...who would have thought with all the expert analysis suggesting CONUS would see some hits this year? Can it last through the rest of hurricane season like this is the big question?

It's really kind of aggravating when experts assume that the U.S. will have mutiple TC hits in there pre-season forecasts. Just look at 2010 for example, they were forecasting the same with mutiple U.S. hits knowing how active that season was going to be, and yet only "1" U.S. TC hit that year. Pathetic little TS Bonnie in late July which did nothing at all here in S. FL where it hit.

[TheStormExpert]

Expecting an active oct..

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens1 ... /slp62.png

I'm assuming that would head towards the TX gulf coast and W. Gulf with that ridging to over the Mid-Atlantic?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I know we are all excited about (finally) getting our first hurricane out of Humberto, and anxious to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico this week. However, after seeing that long-range GFS solution, I must share something.

Some people might recall, even if vaguely, that I mentioned a dream last year about two storms early on in the 2012 season, one over the open Atlantic named Chris and one in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida named Debby. That dream came to near perfect fruition. Well, I just had another dream the other night about a hurricane named Karen. I can't recall the exact location it was in in this dream, other than I think it was heading towards somewhere in the US and it was one where there were special updates on the news and TWC. I'm not going to predict this system the GFS is suggesting two weeks out to be the one, and besides something would have to be Jerry in between (assuming we get Ingrid this week, which I believe we will). However, I am really keeping this in the back of my mind, this solution and that dream I just had.

Or maybe I'm just freaking out. We'll find out sometime soon I guess.

-Andrew92

[WPBWeather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I know we are all excited about (finally) getting our first hurricane out of Humberto, and anxious to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico this week. However, after seeing that long-range GFS solution, I must share something.

Some people might recall, even if vaguely, that I mentioned a dream last year about two storms early on in the 2012 season, one over the open Atlantic named Chris and one in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida named Debby. That dream came to near perfect fruition. Well, I just had another dream the other night about a hurricane named Karen. I can't recall the exact location it was in in this dream, other than I think it was heading towards somewhere in the US and it was one where there were special updates on the news and TWC. I'm not going to predict this system the GFS is suggesting two weeks out to be the one, and besides something would have to be Jerry in between (assuming we get Ingrid this week, which I believe we will). However, I am really keeping this in the back of my mind, this solution and that dream I just had.

Or maybe I'm just freaking out. We'll find out sometime soon I guess.

-Andrew92

Psychic models don't have a thread here, yet....

[Andrew92]

Ha! I don't claim to be a psychic by any means. It's just very hard to ignore my gut when I had a dream like this before that was almost 100 percent accurate. In addition, for about three years or so before it actually happened I started having this weird feeling about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico named Rita... and it happened almost exactly as my gut told me it would.

But yeah, absolutely listen to the models and the pros first. My gut can only go so far!

-Andrew92

[WPBWeather]

Ha! I don't claim to be a psychic by any means. It's just very hard to ignore my gut when I had a dream like this before that was almost 100 percent accurate. In addition, for about three years or so before it actually happened I started having this weird feeling about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico named Rita... and it happened almost exactly as my gut told me it would.

But yeah, absolutely listen to the models and the pros first. My gut can only go so far!

-Andrew92

I remember her well, between Katrina and Wilma. Bad women.

[catskillfire51]

Ingrid will be off the East coast from Gabrielle? or will that be gabrielle again?

[JtSmarts]

Ingrid will be off the East coast from Gabrielle? or will that be gabrielle again?

Gabi's remnants/Invest 92 will be Gabrielle again and Ingrid will likely be whatever forms in the Bay of Campeche towards the end of this week.

[Ntxw]

This is where the MJO is at and will head next. Interesting thing is that once the MJO hit the IO we had genesis in what will likely be the first Hurricane (Humberto) even though the MDR has been hostile this season. Love needs to be given to the Indian Ocean. Phase 1 did give is Gabrielle which will add to the #s for that phase.

[Hammy]

12z GFS seems a lot less aggressive overall today, barely developing 93L and only bringing Humberto to minimal Cat 1. Only one run but a pretty big change from the last several.

[hurricaneCW]

May have to watch the SW Atlantic as large highs coming off the east coast can induce spin below them. The gfs has shown this a few times in the longer ranges.

[ninel conde]

May have to watch the SW Atlantic as large highs coming off the east coast can induce spin below them. The gfs has shown this a few times in the longer ranges.

only if the high locks in. if the high is just a pause between trofs its meaningless.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS develops a low just north of Panama at 252hrs and move it into the Yucatan Channel and into the western Gulf at 384hrs, after dropping it for a couple of runs it was brought back so who knows but it isn't too believable until its within truncation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

This is where the MJO is at and will head next. Interesting thing is that once the MJO hit the IO we had genesis in what will likely be the first Hurricane (Humberto) even though the MDR has been hostile this season. Love needs to be given to the Indian Ocean. Phase 1 did give is Gabrielle which will add to the #s for that phase.

Folks,
Yes, we just left the very favorable strong MJO phase 1-2, which is hard to beat per climo though it underproduced this time. The MJO is now within the circle and is projected to remain in there for much of the next two weeks. However, things are not currently unfavorable MJOwise. Here's why. I did an analysis of the number of TC geneses since 1995 in September for each MJO phase and came up with these overall % chances for genesis per day:


Phase 1: 24% (Ivan of 2004)

Phase 2: 17% (Ike of 2008 and Jeanne of 2004)

Phase 3: 6%

Phase 4: 16%

Phase 5: 8% (Humberto of 2007)

Phase 6: 6%

Phase 7: 14%

Phase 8: 15%

In Circle: 21% (Rita of 2005, Isabel of 2003, Lili of 2002, Floyd of 1999, Georges of 1998, Opal of 1995)


ALL 16%



- Being within the circle in Sep. since 1995 has actually been more conducive than average with 21% per day (vs. 16% per day overall) unlike in August when it was only 10%/lower than Aug. average.

- Surprisingly, phase 3 had only a 6% daily genesis rate, tied for the bottom in Sep.

- The MJO having gone into the circle is actually much better climowise in SEP since 1995 than if it had gone into phases 3-8 (see above stats).

- All but one of the CONUS H hits and all of the major CONUS H hits from Sep. geneses since 1995 were from geneses during phase 1, phase 2 , or within the circle.

- Within circle US H hitting SEP TC formation dates since 1995: Rita 9/17, Isabel 9/6, Lili 9/21, Floyd 9/7, Georges 9/15, Opal 9/27

- Clarification: There have been many more days within the circle vs. any one of phases 1-8. So, that's a big reason there were a whopping six geneses that lead to later H hits on the US. However, even after taking the # of days into account (i.e. "normalization"), within the circle was more conducive than average (21%/day vs. overall avg. of only 16%/day). Also, the # of days for phases 3-8, combined, were about the same as the # of days within the circle. Yet, there were six US H hits from within the circle vs. only one hit from phases 3-8, combined!

Aside: The Euro ensemble mean did far better than the GEFS mean for this recent strong phase 1-2 peak though it was a little too strong. Therefore, I'd pay more attention to the Euro in the near future for the MJO.

[chaser1]

Great research! Good stuff....

Would love to take your analysis even further to cover an even greater number of years, but realize thats a time consuming task.

[Javlin]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I know we are all excited about (finally) getting our first hurricane out of Humberto, and anxious to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico this week. However, after seeing that long-range GFS solution, I must share something.

Some people might recall, even if vaguely, that I mentioned a dream last year about two storms early on in the 2012 season, one over the open Atlantic named Chris and one in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida named Debby. That dream came to near perfect fruition. Well, I just had another dream the other night about a hurricane named Karen. I can't recall the exact location it was in in this dream, other than I think it was heading towards somewhere in the US and it was one where there were special updates on the news and TWC. I'm not going to predict this system the GFS is suggesting two weeks out to be the one, and besides something would have to be Jerry in between (assuming we get Ingrid this week, which I believe we will). However, I am really keeping this in the back of my mind, this solution and that dream I just had.

Or maybe I'm just freaking out. We'll find out sometime soon I guess.

-Andrew92

I had the same gut feeling for Katrina as she crossed the Atlantic as a wave while everything else was happening in the Atlantic I was efixated with that wave.As soon as she hit the GOM I was concerned and moreso when Derek made his prediction of the LA/MS line three days before the NHC.I know the feeling and it's called foreboding as for the wave 372hrs out abit to far for me to contrive into a belief ATTM and for whoever mentioned a ridge at that juncture should remember that time frame is fall and think Opal.