SFLcane wrote:Latest euro monthlies hint at a very active tropics in Oct.
If that ends up being the case, and it's a (BIG IF) then this definantly going to be one of those backloaded seasons.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
gatorcane wrote:What I find incredibly shocking is that every run of the GFS and ECMWF even in the long-range (out through 384 hours on the GFS) this season so far haven't shown any hurricane landfalls so far for the CONUS...and so far they have been right. In years past I can remember both these models (more so the GFS) would show "model" storms hitting the CONUS in the long-range to at least provide some discussion for folks on this board. This year...NADA.
When I look at both models today, they still show nothing for the next two weeks hitting the CONUS during the peak month of September. The BOC system gets close to Texas but still no U.S. landfalls. Quiet season so far for CONUS hits for sure...who would have thought with all the expert analysis suggesting CONUS would see some hits this year? Can it last through the rest of hurricane season like this is the big question?
Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I know we are all excited about (finally) getting our first hurricane out of Humberto, and anxious to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico this week. However, after seeing that long-range GFS solution, I must share something.
Some people might recall, even if vaguely, that I mentioned a dream last year about two storms early on in the 2012 season, one over the open Atlantic named Chris and one in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida named Debby. That dream came to near perfect fruition. Well, I just had another dream the other night about a hurricane named Karen. I can't recall the exact location it was in in this dream, other than I think it was heading towards somewhere in the US and it was one where there were special updates on the news and TWC. I'm not going to predict this system the GFS is suggesting two weeks out to be the one, and besides something would have to be Jerry in between (assuming we get Ingrid this week, which I believe we will). However, I am really keeping this in the back of my mind, this solution and that dream I just had.
Or maybe I'm just freaking out. We'll find out sometime soon I guess.
-Andrew92
Andrew92 wrote:Ha! I don't claim to be a psychic by any means. It's just very hard to ignore my gut when I had a dream like this before that was almost 100 percent accurate. In addition, for about three years or so before it actually happened I started having this weird feeling about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico named Rita... and it happened almost exactly as my gut told me it would.
But yeah, absolutely listen to the models and the pros first. My gut can only go so far!
-Andrew92
catskillfire51 wrote:Ingrid will be off the East coast from Gabrielle? or will that be gabrielle again?
Ntxw wrote:This is where the MJO is at and will head next. Interesting thing is that once the MJO hit the IO we had genesis in what will likely be the first Hurricane (Humberto) even though the MDR has been hostile this season. Love needs to be given to the Indian Ocean. Phase 1 did give is Gabrielle which will add to the #s for that phase.
Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I know we are all excited about (finally) getting our first hurricane out of Humberto, and anxious to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico this week. However, after seeing that long-range GFS solution, I must share something.
Some people might recall, even if vaguely, that I mentioned a dream last year about two storms early on in the 2012 season, one over the open Atlantic named Chris and one in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida named Debby. That dream came to near perfect fruition. Well, I just had another dream the other night about a hurricane named Karen. I can't recall the exact location it was in in this dream, other than I think it was heading towards somewhere in the US and it was one where there were special updates on the news and TWC. I'm not going to predict this system the GFS is suggesting two weeks out to be the one, and besides something would have to be Jerry in between (assuming we get Ingrid this week, which I believe we will). However, I am really keeping this in the back of my mind, this solution and that dream I just had.
Or maybe I'm just freaking out. We'll find out sometime soon I guess.
-Andrew92
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest