ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

F-16 showing very high rain rate. GOES-13 showing excellent cirrus development from it with some possible gravity waves.

Looks like we have ignition.

[RL3AO]

Recon scheduled for takeoff in two hours.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone developing to the south

[GCANE]

LLC estimate re positioned under the flare

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL932013&starting_image=2013AL93_4KMSRBDC_201309120915.jpg

[GCANE]

Rolling up

[GCANE]

Here we go, hot tower firing up. IMHO all signs RI underway.

[ROCK]

agree looks like it doesnt want to waste any time....models still have this fairly weak at this point...

[GCANE]

Overshooting tops continuing to fire off with more pronounced gravity waves in the cirrus canopy.

Textbook CDO building.

[djmikey]

Just curious. I know everyone is discussing "landfall" location, but what will the storm do AND go after landfall? Will she continue west? Will she turn northward? And can we expect ANY moisture from her in TX AFTER landfall? All I have read is her possible landfall location and nothing on where she will go after landfall. Many tropical systems create havoc of flooding rains days after they have made landfall. Just wondring if we can POSSIBLY expect a piece of her later down the road. Thanks!

[tailgater]

To early to tell as some models keep her down there for 3 to 5 days and I doubt anyone will stick thier neck out in forecasting for 5 days in such weak steering currents

[JGrin87]

Could the ULL in S. Tx. pull this thing poleward?

[tailgater]

Here we go, hot tower firing up. IMHO all signs RI underway.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

Yes if thier is a LLC under that Vigous MLC then it will be deepening quickly, but I don't see any clear indications at the surface yet.
Looks pretty good on radar.

[Big O]

Could the ULL in S. Tx. pull this thing poleward?

Possible. I believe that is what happened with Bret (1999).

[South Texas Storms]

Would a more intense system move further north in this case?

[Alyono]

Here we go, hot tower firing up. IMHO all signs RI underway.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

Yes if thier is a LLC under that Vigous MLC then it will be deepening quickly, but I don't see any clear indications at the surface yet.
Looks pretty good on radar.

surface obs indicate that is where the surface center is

[JGrin87]

Here we go, hot tower firing up. IMHO all signs RI underway.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

Yes if thier is a LLC under that Vigous MLC then it will be deepening quickly, but I don't see any clear indications at the surface yet.
Looks pretty good on radar.

surface obs indicate that is where the surface center is

Please expand...

[GCANE]

The ULL along the coast of TX was shooting some PV down into the BOC.

Scrolling thru the 3hr frames on 200mb vorticity, looks like the PV anomaly may be dissipating some what near 93L.

If so, that will help it to spin up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor1&zoom=&time=

[GCANE]

Core heating up to 1C, but not yet symmetrical around the estimated COC.

Or; could be the estimate is wrong.

[Alyono]

Please expand...

southwest winds from the coast of Mexico. There is a LLC

[HurriGuy]

I know we are dealing with this system now, but have you guys noticed that GFS keeps pressures low all throughout the month of September in the Gulf and Western Carribbean? This might be a reoccuring theme. It is hinting at a couple more GOM systems this month, but without the ridge blocking all these storms.