ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

93L is under some heavy shear right now http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF that will keep it from ramping up for a little while.

How much of it is self induced shear though and how much of it is actually shear that would be affecting it?

[Wx_Warrior]

Some (wink wink) thought I was crazy when I posted a few days ago that the ridge would hold thru Sunday....Ridge looks to hold thru Tuesday then move east.

[Stormcenter]

The NWS out of N.O.,LA. seems to think there is chance some of the moisture may head north.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013


MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS MORNING WILL EMERGE IN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY. THE WAVE
WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY...POSSIBLY NOT REACHING
LAND AGAIN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BY THEN...UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE EJECTING AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE GULF COAST. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL FEATURE HEADED WEST INTO
MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS BUT IT MAY STILL SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE CWA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

:?: Just curious. I know everyone is discussing "landfall" location, but what will the storm do AND go after landfall? Will she continue west? Will she turn northward? And can we expect ANY moisture from her in TX AFTER landfall? All I have read is her possible landfall location and nothing on where she will go after landfall. Many tropical systems create havoc of flooding rains days after they have made landfall. Just wondring if we can POSSIBLY expect a piece of her later down the road. Thanks!

It appears that the ridge will remain over Texas through early next week. That would keep all the moisture from this storm well south of SE TX.

[Portastorm]

Well, the 6z GFS showed very generous rains covering much of the southern half of the state in the next 5-10 days.

[CrazyC83]

From what I can estimate, the environmental shear is about 15 kt, so not low, but not terribly hostile. The rest of it looks to be self-induced.

[ROCK]

the GFS has the ridge retreating at 117hr and gone by 129hr.....just saying...

[JGrin87]

Here we go, hot tower firing up. IMHO all signs RI underway.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

Yes if thier is a LLC under that Vigous MLC then it will be deepening quickly, but I don't see any clear indications at the surface yet.
Looks pretty good on radar.

surface obs indicate that is where the surface center is

Please expand...

[Time_Zone]

93L is under some heavy shear right now http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF that will keep it from ramping up for a little while.

Most of that is self-induced....wind shear is quite low 10-15 Knots as far as I can tell.

[Time_Zone]

From what I can estimate, the environmental shear is about 15 kt, so not low, but not terribly hostile. The rest of it looks to be self-induced.

It has very light shear.....it shouldn't have any issues intensifying as far as I can tell it looks to be doing just that right now.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013091212/gem_apcpn_watl.html

Looks like CMC will be wrapping all this moisture WAY to the east.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=TD could be forming-80%-90%

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass caught closed low.

[Alyono]

that IS a TD

[jeff]

Indeed...this is a TD

[GCANE]

Given the rotation on vis and the SCAT, no doubt a TD.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

[Tireman4]

Well two mets have chimed in...Wxman 57? Jonathan?

[Rgv20]

Agree most definitely a TD now..


Today's forecast discussion out of the WPC (Weather Prediction Center)

THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS REGARD WILL BE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. A
TROPICAL SYSTEM--INVEST AL93--OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST
OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, SPREADING PRODIGIOUS RAINFALL INTO
THE TERRAIN CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE FOCUSED EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE THAN
10 INCHES IN A COUPLE LOCATIONS. THIS FORECAST WILL BE REFINED IN
THE COMING DAYS ONCE THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS RESOLVED.


CISCO

[JonathanBelles]

I can't say anything more than others have said, but the scat pass clearly shows that a closed circulation has formed. The only hesitation I have is that thunderstorm activity has decreased since that pass. Winds were weak on the SW side. The structure is definitely there.

[tropicwatch]

Conditions at VERV4 as of
(1:00 pm CDT)
1800 GMT on 09/12/2013:
19.202 N 96.113 W
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 10.8 m/s
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.4 m/s
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1007.4 mb
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.4 mb ( Falling )

[cycloneye]

TXNT23 KNES 121756
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 12/1745Z

C. 19.7N

D. 93.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1443Z 19.7N 93.6W SSMIS


...SALEMI