ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[TJRE]

LOOPS
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/gulf-of-mexico/IR/

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21:15 UTC



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[HouTXmetro]

NHC seems to agree with this system taking its time before landfall. That would allow more time for the Ridge to open up and a more northward track.

[fendie]

:uarrow:

Yes it is, and it appears they have very little confidence in the track as well, given the size of uncertainty.

They have no control over that. It does a loop there over several days which makes it look like there is larger area of uncertainty. It's all calculated based on their track record of forecasting over the last 10 years or so. They don't increase it or decrease it based on if their not sure about the forecast.

Correct. The cone is forecasted to 406 miles in diameter 4 days out.

Edit: At least that is what was posted here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=114938

Can also see NHC website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml (Note: 177 nautical mile radius ~ 406 mi diameter)

[cycloneye]

Plenty of warm TCHP to tap into as it moves slowly.

[cycloneye]

NHC seems to agree with this system taking its time before landfall. That would allow more time for the Ridge to open up and a more northward track.

To let you know that I moved this post that was in the models thread to here.

[RL3AO]

I think there is some serious bust potential in terms of intensity, but I'm glad I'm not the one making that first forecast.

[cycloneye]

Question to any of our pro mets. Will 90E in EPAC have an effect on TD 10 on track or intensity if it organizes into a TC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[hurricanes1234]

The conditions in this area appear to be very favourable, according to the discussion, and many people said so previously. Does anyone think that 60 mph may be a little conservative? What are the odds of this passing Category 1 status, or even becoming a major hurricane?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

The conditions in this area appear to be very favourable, according to the discussion, and many people said so previously. Does anyone think that 60 mph may be a little conservative? What are the odds of this passing Category 1 status, or even becoming a major hurricane?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If you go back a few pages on this thread, you'll see a lot of comment (including some from pro mets) where folks believe the current NHC *may* be a bit too conservative.

[wxman57]

NHC seems to agree with this system taking its time before landfall. That would allow more time for the Ridge to open up and a more northward track.

That's not looking likely. Euro and GFS have the ridge fairly firmly set over SE TX and LA through early next week. At most, it might be able to make landfall midway between Tampico and Brownsville. That may be far enough to give south Texas some rain, but not Houston.

[Nikki]

NHC seems to agree with this system taking its time before landfall. That would allow more time for the Ridge to open up and a more northward track.

That's not looking likely. Euro and GFS have the ridge fairly firmly set over SE TX and LA through early next week. At most, it might be able to make landfall midway between Tampico and Brownsville. That may be far enough to give south Texas some rain, but not Houston.

Houston won't see any rain from TD10? What about the coastal areas?

[jeff]

Plenty of warm TCHP to tap into as it moves slowly.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/29esvx2.jpg

There is less potential down there than I would have thought.

[cycloneye]

Agree Jeff. Can you imagine if that very warm TCHP in NW Caribbean is in GOM?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not odd with what euro showed

if you use EC for intensity, you will fail every single time

To add further to this, the ECMWF may be having problems with the interaction between TD 10 and Invest 90E. The model shows 90E becoming the dominant feature which seems unlikely given its large and broad nature. Not only that, but the ECMWF initializes with one clear, concise low pressure area which isn't the case.

I maintain a strong Category 1 landfall just north of Tampico on Monday afternoon. We'll have to see how it goes though.

[Time_Zone]

Plenty of warm TCHP to tap into as it moves slowly.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/29esvx2.jpg

There is less potential down there than I would have thought.

A lot more then in say 2010 when Karl was there.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091218/gfs_apcpn_watl.html

Have no fear residents of Texas! Y'all look to be the focal point throughout the month of September dealing with rain!

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop:



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[RL3AO]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

[HurricaneDREW92]

My Amateur Track for TD 10:



Peaks at minimal Cat 3, moisture pulled up into Texas

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