Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

How did Climate Change get into the model discussion? Maybe we should stay away from that conversation here.

[LarryWx]

Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.

[Hurricaneman]

Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.

I say when in doubt go with the Euro

[ROCK]

the 12Z GEM has 3 issues in the GOM at 210hr......umm ok....lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_36.png

12Z NAVGEM.....idk about this.....you tell me...lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_31.png

[caneman]

Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.

I say when in doubt go with the Euro

Why? The Euro is poor at genesis.

[Blown Away]

Amazing, GFS really not seeing anything through Oct 2nd...

[ninel conde]

Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.

euro once again drops it. i still think the season ends early.

[AJC3]

Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.

euro once again drops it.

The 00Z run of the ECMWF did not drop the GOMEX/FL low

[PTrackerLA]

Today's 12z Euro indicates another low forming in the BOC from the NW Caribbean disturbance through day 10 and another system in the Atlantic off Florida that could threaten the east coast past day 10. Interesting...

[wxman57]

The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.

[Dean4Storms]

The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.

You'd think a stall in that situation and maybe a turn to the NW.

[Steve]

12z CMC and NAVGEM both develop surface low pressure (closed) out front of the front that should come down later in the week or the weekend. Eastern US trough (6-10 days out) was telegraphed earlier this weekend when Man-Yi recurved by Japan, so there should be a front/trough off the US East Coast with a high following behind that toward late week. The trough shouldn't last too long and should be transient, but if low pressure forms out front of it, it should move up toward the TX or LA Coast and then cut over NEward toward Florida as the front gets closer. GFS pulses a low pressure along the front but still a couple hundred miles inland and pulses again near the FL Coast with generally lower pressure in the central gulf. NAM hints at rain moving up. All this seems to come from the disturbed weather just near Central America and some remaining low pressure down in the SW Gulf/BOC left over from Ingrid. Not saying this is going to form into a tropical storm (sheared or otherwise), but it looks like the only close in potential for development over the next 4-6 days and is probalby worth the mention.

This post is NOT official information.

[ROCK]

thanks for mentioning Steve...I never got into the whole telegraphing theory..maybe it's time I read up on it..

[CourierPR]

:uarrow: thanks for mentioning Steve...I never got into the whole telegraphing theory..maybe it's time I read up on it..

Isn't that what Joe Bastardi always refers to as a teleconnection?

[hurricanetrack]

Who is Joe Bastardi again? (lol)

That is an interesting set up that the Euro paints. It latched on to the Sandy idea at least 8 days ahead of time. Maybe, just maybe this is the one big ticket event of the season? We shall see. Water temps in Gulf Stream are at their peak so plenty of energy. Watching this closely.

[gatorcane]

I guess we are talking about this South Florida / East Coast system now in this thread

Anyway yes this is a particularly interesting scenario for the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast with blocking high pressure to the north:

12Z ECMWF 240 hours out:

[wxman57]

The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.

You'd think a stall in that situation and maybe a turn to the NW.

With an upper-level trof across the central Gulf and SW winds aloft from the BoC through FL and out to sea, a track to the NW is unlikely.

[hurricanetrack]

Bummer. Oh well, next....

[gatorcane]

The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.

You'd think a stall in that situation and maybe a turn to the NW.

With an upper-level trof across the central Gulf and SW winds aloft from the BoC through FL and out to sea, a track to the NW is unlikely.

I think Dean was talking about 228 hours on the Euro, not when the system is in the NW Carib...

Wxman are you saying that even with that blocking High pressure over New England, the system would still go out to sea in that Euro run missing the CONUS?

[Riptide]

Bummer. Oh well, next....

Hmm?..