Global model runs discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6481 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:40 pm

How did Climate Change get into the model discussion? Maybe we should stay away from that conversation here.:)
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6482 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:51 pm

Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. ;) Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6483 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:19 am

LarryWx wrote:Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. ;) Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.


I say when in doubt go with the Euro
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6484 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:35 am

the 12Z GEM has 3 issues in the GOM at 210hr......umm ok....lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_36.png

12Z NAVGEM.....idk about this.....you tell me...lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_31.png
0 likes   

caneman

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6485 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:33 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. ;) Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.


I say when in doubt go with the Euro


Why? The Euro is poor at genesis.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6486 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:45 am

Amazing, GFS really not seeing anything through Oct 2nd...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

ninel conde

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6487 Postby ninel conde » Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:32 am

LarryWx wrote:Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. ;) Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.


euro once again drops it. i still think the season ends early.
0 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6488 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:33 am

ninel conde wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Folks,

I think I'm going to kill the gfs lol. I may ask Ninel to help. ;) Here we go again. It keeps showing NE US ridging with a surface cyclone that moves/redevelops off of the SE US coast but on seemingly later and later dates. In this case, a surface low forms in the E GOM on 9/23. It doesn't reform off of the SE coast now til 9/27. This occurs as it is located to the SE of an E coast ridge. However, although blocked initially, it does start moving to the NE offshore on 9/29.

I don't buy anything even close to this solution right now. There's too much teasing going on lol.


euro once again drops it.


The 00Z run of the ECMWF did not drop the GOMEX/FL low
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#6489 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:23 pm

Today's 12z Euro indicates another low forming in the BOC from the NW Caribbean disturbance through day 10 and another system in the Atlantic off Florida that could threaten the east coast past day 10. Interesting...
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6490 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:47 pm

The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6491 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.


You'd think a stall in that situation and maybe a turn to the NW.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6492 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:00 pm

12z CMC and NAVGEM both develop surface low pressure (closed) out front of the front that should come down later in the week or the weekend. Eastern US trough (6-10 days out) was telegraphed earlier this weekend when Man-Yi recurved by Japan, so there should be a front/trough off the US East Coast with a high following behind that toward late week. The trough shouldn't last too long and should be transient, but if low pressure forms out front of it, it should move up toward the TX or LA Coast and then cut over NEward toward Florida as the front gets closer. GFS pulses a low pressure along the front but still a couple hundred miles inland and pulses again near the FL Coast with generally lower pressure in the central gulf. NAM hints at rain moving up. All this seems to come from the disturbed weather just near Central America and some remaining low pressure down in the SW Gulf/BOC left over from Ingrid. Not saying this is going to form into a tropical storm (sheared or otherwise), but it looks like the only close in potential for development over the next 4-6 days and is probalby worth the mention.

This post is NOT official information.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6493 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:15 pm

:uarrow: thanks for mentioning Steve...I never got into the whole telegraphing theory..maybe it's time I read up on it..:)
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1335
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6494 Postby CourierPR » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:32 pm

ROCK wrote::uarrow: thanks for mentioning Steve...I never got into the whole telegraphing theory..maybe it's time I read up on it..:)


Isn't that what Joe Bastardi always refers to as a teleconnection?
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanetrack
HurricaneTrack.com
HurricaneTrack.com
Posts: 1781
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#6495 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:41 pm

Who is Joe Bastardi again? (lol)

That is an interesting set up that the Euro paints. It latched on to the Sandy idea at least 8 days ahead of time. Maybe, just maybe this is the one big ticket event of the season? We shall see. Water temps in Gulf Stream are at their peak so plenty of energy. Watching this closely.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#6496 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:42 pm

I guess we are talking about this South Florida / East Coast system now in this thread :)

Anyway yes this is a particularly interesting scenario for the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast with blocking high pressure to the north:

12Z ECMWF 240 hours out:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6497 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:45 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.


You'd think a stall in that situation and maybe a turn to the NW.


With an upper-level trof across the central Gulf and SW winds aloft from the BoC through FL and out to sea, a track to the NW is unlikely.
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanetrack
HurricaneTrack.com
HurricaneTrack.com
Posts: 1781
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#6498 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:53 pm

Bummer. Oh well, next....
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6499 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The storm it develops over south Florida in 7-8 days looks quite interesting. I only have the high-res Euro in through 228 hrs, but it has the storm nearing the Outer Banks of NC with high pressure blocking it to the north.


You'd think a stall in that situation and maybe a turn to the NW.


With an upper-level trof across the central Gulf and SW winds aloft from the BoC through FL and out to sea, a track to the NW is unlikely.


I think Dean was talking about 228 hours on the Euro, not when the system is in the NW Carib...

Wxman are you saying that even with that blocking High pressure over New England, the system would still go out to sea in that Euro run missing the CONUS?
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:59 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:

Re:

#6500 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:58 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Bummer. Oh well, next....

Hmm?..
:double:
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests